Suchergebnisse

We investigate the duration of time until the first work resumption for a cohort of people who receive disability insurance benefits. One of the peculiarities of the disability insurance program under investigation is that the level of benefits not only depends on previous wages, but also declines over time according to a schedule based on age, the amount of work experience, and the level of disability. As a result, different people will face different benefit schedules and hence are likely to make different choices regarding a return to work. To fully absorb the structural aspect of the disability program, we specify and estimate a behavioral labor supply model where individuals receive job offers that they can accept or decline. Possible reforms of the disability program are evaluated, including ending the disability program altogether.

While providing the most reliable method of evaluating social programs, randomized experiments in developing and developed countries alike are accompanied by political risks and ethical issues that jeopardize the chances of adopting them. In this paper we use a unique data set from rural Mexico collected for the purposes of evaluating the impact of the PROGRESA poverty alleviation program to examine the performance of a quasiexperimental estimator, the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Using as a benchmark the impact estimates based on the experimental nature of the sample, we examine how estimates differ when we use the RD design as the estimator for evaluating program impact on two key indicators: child school attendance and child work. Overall the performance of the RDD performance was remarkably good. The RDD estimates of program impact agreed with the experimental estimates in 10 out of the 12 possible cases. The two cases in which the RDD method failed to reveal any significant program impact on the school attendance of boys and girls were in the first year of the program (round 3). RDD estimates comparable to the experimental estimates were obtained when we used as a comparison group children from non-eligible households in the control localities.

Using longitudinal household data and an econometric model of conditional poverty transitions, this paper contributes to the growing literature on poverty dynamics in Australian households. The results reveal that a range of household head, partner and demographic characteristics in addition to life-changing events have an impact on both the likelihood of remaining poor and slipping into poverty. These findings have important implications for Australian policymakers: tertiary education and employment are key factors in keeping households out of poverty; having a disability increases the probability of becoming poor and remaining in such a situation; households in outer-regional or remote areas are more likely to become poor and continue to live under such hardship; and finally, life-changing events, especially becoming separated, can lead households into persistent poverty. These results are robust to a range of poverty definitions. By drawing on research that utilizes such longitudinal data, policymakers will be much better informed about the drivers of material deprivation in Australia and subsequently how best to design policies that target and support the most vulnerable households.