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Time Series Forecasting With the CIR# Model: From Hectic Markets Sentiments to Regular Seasonal Tourism
In: Orlando, G., & Bufalo, M. (2023). Time series forecasting with the CIR# model: from hectic markets sentiments to regular seasonal tourism. 1., 29(4), 1216-1238–1216-1238. doi: 10.3846/tede.2023.19294 Technological and Economic Development of Economy
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Improved Tourism Demand Forecasting With CIR# Model: A Case Study of Disrupted Data Patterns in Italy
In: Bufalo, M., & Orlando, G. (2023). Improved tourism demand forecasting with CIR# model: a case study of disrupted data patterns in Italy. Tourism Review, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print). doi: 10.1108/TR-04-2023-0230 https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TR-04-2023-0230/full/html
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Empirical Evidences on the Interconnectedness between Sampling and Asset Returns' Distributions
In: Orlando, G.; Bufalo, M. Empirical Evidences on the Interconnectedness between Sampling and Asset Returns' Distributions. Risks 2021, 9, 88. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9050088
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Interest Rates Forecasting: Between Hull and White and the CIR#. How to Make a Single Factor Model Work
In: Orlando, G, Bufalo, M. Interest rates forecasting: between Hull and White and the CIR#. How to make a single factor model work. Journal of Forecasting. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2783
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Skew–Brownian processes for estimating the volatility of crude oil Brent
In: International journal of forecasting
ISSN: 0169-2070
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On the Ergodicity of a Three-Factor CIR Model
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Financial Markets' Deterministic Aspects Modeled By A Low-Dimensional Equation
In: Orlando, G., Bufalo, M., & Stoop, R. (2022). Financial markets' deterministic aspects modeled by a low-dimensional equation. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 1693. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-05765-z
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Financial markets' deterministic aspects modeled by a low-dimensional equation
We ask whether empirical finance market data (Financial Stress Index, swap and equity, emerging and developed, corporate and government, short and long maturity), with their recently observed alternations between calm periods and financial turmoil, could be described by a low-dimensional deterministic model, or whether this requests a stochastic approach. We find that a deterministic model performs at least as well as one of the best stochastic models, but may offer additional insight into the essential mechanisms that drive financial markets.
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Financial markets' deterministic aspects modeled by a low-dimensional equation
We ask whether empirical finance market data (Financial Stress Index, swap and equity, emerging and developed, corporate and government, short and long maturity), with their recently observed alternations between calm periods and financial turmoil, could be described by a low-dimensional deterministic model, or whether this requests a stochastic approach. We find that a deterministic model performs at least as well as one of the best stochastic models, but may offer additional insight into the essential mechanisms that drive financial markets. ; ISSN:2045-2322
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A New Approach to Forecast Market Interest Rates Through the CIR Model
In: 'A New Approach to Forecast Market Interest Rates Through the CIR Model', with R.M. Mininni and M. Bufalo - Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Publishing, 20 Sept. 2019, DOI: 10.1108/SEF-03-2019-0116
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