Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts: Part 1
In: Expressways and Motorways, Band 50, Heft 10, S. 56-65 Japanese translation by the publisher
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In: Expressways and Motorways, Band 50, Heft 10, S. 56-65 Japanese translation by the publisher
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In: Transport Reviews, Vol. 26, No. 5, pp. 537-555, 2006, DOI: 10.1080/01441640500532005
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In: Archivio di studi urbani e regionali, no. 82, Milano: Franco Angeli, pp. 1-28.
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In: Journal of the American Planning Association, Autumn 2005, Vol. 71, No. 4, p. 452, DOI: 10.1080/01944360508976715
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In: Journal of the American Planning Association, Band 71, Heft 2
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In: Transport Reviews, vol. 24, no. 1, January 2004, pp. 3-18
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In: Journal of the American Planning Association, Band 68, Heft 3
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This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.
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