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Increasing numbers of previously threatened large grazing birds (cranes, geese and swans) are causing crop damage along their flyways worldwide. For example, the number of reported incidents of crop damage caused by common cranesGrus grus, followed by regulated inspections and governmental compensation in Sweden, has increased over the last few decades and was valued at ∼200,000 Euros in 2012. Consequently, their impact on agriculture is escalating which raises the need for evidence-informed preventative strategies. We surveyed arable fields for autumn staging common cranes in an area surrounding a wetland reserve in Sweden. We assessed the following factors in relation to the probability of cranes being present on fields: crop stage, crop type, distance to roost site, time of day, field size and time since harvest. Stubble fields had the highest probability of crane presence, progressively decreasing through grassland and grazing grounds, bare soil to growing crop. A stubble field at 5km from a roost site had a predicted probability (95% CI) of hosting cranes of 0.25 (0.19–0.32). The probability of cranes visiting a field was linearly and negatively related to distance to the roost site. For example, the probability of crane presence increased from 0.05 (0.03–0.07) to 0.09 (0.06–0.15) when distance decreased from 5 to 1km. At stubble fields, the probability of crane presence decreased with time since harvest and was highest for barley with progressively lower probability on wheat and oat. Illustrative scenario predictions developed from the models demonstrated that probability of crane presence could be high, 0.60 (0.42–0.77), if all favorable factors were combined (e.g. barley stubble, 1 day after harvest, 1km from roost site). Given the existing framework of international conventions and prohibition of culling, there is a need for preventative strategies to reduce crop damage. Based on our results, such strategies should focus on providing cereal stubbles as diversionary fields, especially close to wetland ...

Increasing numbers of previously threatened large grazing birds (cranes, geese and swans) are causing crop damage along their flyways worldwide. For example, the number of reported incidents of crop damage caused by common cranes Grus grus, followed by regulated inspections and governmental compensation in Sweden, has increased over the last few decades and was valued at ∼200,000 Euros in 2012. Consequently, their impact on agriculture is escalating which raises the need for evidence-informed preventative strategies. We surveyed arable fields for autumn staging common cranes in an area surrounding a wetland reserve in Sweden. We assessed the following factors in relation to the probability of cranes being present on fields: crop stage, crop type, distance to roost site, time of day, field size and time since harvest. Stubble fields had the highest probability of crane presence, progressively decreasing through grassland and grazing grounds, bare soil to growing crop. A stubble field at 5km from a roost site had a predicted probability (95% CI) of hosting cranes of 0.25 (0.19-0.32). The probability of cranes visiting a field was linearly and negatively related to distance to the roost site. For example, the probability of crane presence increased from 0.05 (0.03-0.07) to 0.09 (0.06-0.15) when distance decreased from 5 to 1km. At stubble fields, the probability of crane presence decreased with time since harvest and was highest for barley with progressively lower probability on wheat and oat. Illustrative scenario predictions developed from the models demonstrated that probability of crane presence could be high, 0.60 (0.42-0.77), if all favorable factors were combined (e.g. barley stubble, 1 day after harvest, 1km from roost site). Given the existing framework of international conventions and prohibition of culling, there is a need for preventative strategies to reduce crop damage. Based on our results, such strategies should focus on providing cereal stubbles as diversionary fields, especially close to wetland roosting sites. Stubble field availability can be achieved by careful crop rotation planning. We suggest that crop rotation and time of harvest should be added to flyway management plans recently developed for some large grazing bird species to facilitate stable co-existence between conservation practices and agricultural interests. KeywordsConservation; Crop protection; Geese; Wildlife conflict; Management

Ecosystems provide services for many stakeholder groups, often with a conflict of interests that hampers sustainability. Core to these conflicts is the challenge of trading-off monetary and non-monetary measures. Using the boreal forest as a case, we present a socio-ecologically integrated trade-off model for partly competing services (wood, game hunting, livestock grazing). Drawing on multi-criteria analyses (MCA), we found that wood production unequivocally yielded the highest net present value, but led to a substantial reduction in the performance of hunting and grazing. By imposing multiuse conditions set as minimum performance of the less profitable services, we evaluated the opportunity costs of multiuse without directly pricing non-commodities. We also quantified normalized indices of realized performance potential to evaluate the cost of multiuse with a single, joint metric. Both approaches consistently showed that accepting a rather small loss in one service may secure large gains in other services. By democratically providing a combined monetary and non-monetary evaluation, our approach should facilitate broader acceptance for the decisional metrics among stakeholders. It thereby has the potential to mitigate conflicts, feeding into the larger scheme of adaptive management.

Protected areas are important to support biodiversity and endangered species. However, they are often too small to fulfill the resource requirements of many large and mobile wildlife species, especially when congregating in large numbers. In such cases, wildlife may overflow onto surrounding human-dominated land and cause impacts. The aim of the EU Natura 2000 network is to increase supranational connectivity between protected areas for migratory and protected species such as the common crane (Grus grus). The crane population along the Western European flyway has been increasing rapidly in recent decades, with peaks of 200,000 cranes at specific Natura 2000 sites. We studied 32 GPS-tagged cranes over four migration periods, to test the use of the network by cranes and the potential for impacts on adjacent farmland. During the nighttime, the probability that roosting cranes were located on Natura 2000 sites was 97%. During daytime, the probability of foraging cranes being located on arable land was 68%. The probability of foraging cranes occurring on agricultural fields close to Natura 2000 sites decreased with distance. Such foraging patterns may fuel conflicts between conservation and agricultural objectives. To resolve these conflicts we suggest improved cross-boundary collaboration and policy development among involved states, combined with stakeholder participation to implement effective compensation and damage prevention strategies which are focused upon networks of protected areas

Stakeholder cooperation can be vital in managing conservation conflicts. Laboratory experiments show cooperation is less likely in the presence of uncertainty. Much less is known about how stakeholders in real-life conservation conflicts respond to different types of uncertainty. We tested the effects of different sources of uncertainty on cooperative behaviour using a framed field experiment and interviews. The experiment compared a baseline scenario of perfect certainty with scenarios including either: (a) scientific uncertainty about the effectiveness of a conflict-reduction intervention; (b) administrative uncertainty about intervention funding; or (c) political uncertainty about the extent of community support. We applied these scenarios to a conservation conflict in the Outer Hebrides, Scotland, involving the management of geese to simultaneously meet both conservation and farming objectives. We asked 149 crofters (small-scale farmers) if they would commit to cooperate with others by helping fund a goose management plan given the three sources of uncertainty. On average, intention to cooperate was highest (99%) in scenarios without uncertainty, and lowest under administrative uncertainty (77%). Scientific uncertainty and political uncertainty both had less of an effect, with over 95% of crofters predicted to be willing to cooperate in these scenarios. Crofters who indicated concern for other crofters suffering the impact of geese were more likely to cooperate. The longer an individual had been a crofter, the less likely they were to cooperate. Synthesis and applications. Crofters' intention to cooperate is high but lessened by uncertainty, especially over the commitment from other stakeholders such as government, to cooperate on goose management. Existing cooperation on goose management may be at risk if uncertainty is not reduced outright or commitments between parties are not strengthened. This has wide applicability, supporting the need for researchers and government advisers to: (a) determine how ...

Interactions between individuals and groups drive conservation conflict. Interventions to reduce conflict based on altering interaction characteristics such as frequency, type or even existence of an interaction, require an understanding of how the variables which influence interactions are interrelated. Variables include: the group affiliation of actors involved in the conflict; the power imbalances actors perceive between themselves and others; and the influence actors have both formally and informally on decision making. Social network analysis can be used to understand the relationships between variables such as group affiliation and the likelihood of interaction between two actors. At several locations across Scotland, UK, large increases in wild goose populations have resulted in increasing goose grazing and fouling damage to arable crops and to grassland intended for livestock. Conflict between those with goose conservation priorities and those with agricultural priorities has emerged. Having recognised goose conflict as a problem, the Scottish government promoted the formation of formal local goose management groups (LGMGs) at several conflict hotspots. Each group includes local representatives from stakeholders involved in the conflicts including farmers, wildlife conservation NGOs, government, protected area managers, wildfowl hunters and land owners. We collected network data at two island locations in Scotland, The Orkney Islands, and The Uists, where increasing numbers of greylag geese (Anser anser) have resulted in LGMGs being formed. In order to examine how different individuals interact with both the LGMG and with other groups involved in conflict, we use exponential random graph modelling (EGRM) to determine if: i) groups perceived as having greater influence on goose management are more likely to have interactions with individuals; ii) farmers are a homogenous group, more likely to interact with the same groups as other farmers; and iii) the member groups of the LGMG are less likely to interact with individuals who are not themselves affiliated with the LGMG. Here we present how the network structure in each goose conflict offers potential interventions, both at these locations and more generally for managing conservation conflict. ; peerReviewed

Conservation scientists are increasingly focusing on the drivers of human behavior and on the implications of various sources of uncertainty for management decision making. Trophy hunting has been suggested as a conservation tool because it gives economic value to wildlife, but recent examples show that overharvesting is a substantial problem and that data limitations are rife. We use a case study of trophy hunting of an endangered antelope, the mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), to explore how uncertainties generated by population monitoring and poaching interact with decision making by 2 key stakeholders: the safari companies and the government. We built a management strategy evaluation model that encompasses the population dynamics of mountain nyala, a monitoring model, and a company decision making model. We investigated scenarios of investment into antipoaching and monitoring by governments and safari companies. Harvest strategy was robust to the uncertainty in the population estimates obtained from monitoring, but poaching had a much stronger effect on quota and sustainability. Hence, reducing poaching is in the interests of companies wishing to increase the profitability of their enterprises, for example by engaging community members as game scouts. There is a threshold level of uncertainty in the population estimates beyond which the year-to-year variation in the trophy quota prevented planning by the safari companies. This suggests a role for government in ensuring that a baseline level of population monitoring is carried out such that this level is not exceeded. Our results illustrate the importance of considering the incentives of multiple stakeholders when designing frameworks for resource use and when designing management frameworks to address the particular sources of uncertainty that affect system sustainability most heavily.

Conservation scientists are increasingly focusing on the drivers of human behavior and on the implications of various sources of uncertainty for management decision making. Trophy hunting has been suggested as a conservation tool because it gives economic value to wildlife, but recent examples show that overharvesting is a substantial problem and that data limitations are rife. We use a case study of trophy hunting of an endangered antelope, the mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), to explore how uncertainties generated by population monitoring and poaching interact with decision making by 2 key stakeholders: the safari companies and the government. We built a management strategy evaluation model that encompasses the population dynamics of mountain nyala, a monitoring model, and a company decision making model. We investigated scenarios of investment into antipoaching and monitoring by governments and safari companies. Harvest strategy was robust to the uncertainty in the population estimates obtained from monitoring, but poaching had a much stronger effect on quota and sustainability. Hence, reducing poaching is in the interests of companies wishing to increase the profitability of their enterprises, for example by engaging community members as game scouts. There is a threshold level of uncertainty in the population estimates beyond which the year-to-year variation in the trophy quota prevented planning by the safari companies. This suggests a role for government in ensuring that a baseline level of population monitoring is carried out such that this level is not exceeded. Our results illustrate the importance of considering the incentives of multiple stakeholders when designing frameworks for resource use and when designing management frameworks to address the particular sources of uncertainty that affect system sustainability most heavily.

The brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Croatia is currently being managed through trophy hunting, with quotas allocated to local hunting organisations. Human-bear conflict is present at a low level, but any losses are compensated by the hunting organisations that benefit from bear hunting. Attitudes towards bears are generally positive, and the bear population appears stable, or even increasing. Croatia's current bear hunting policy relies upon both the ecological sustainability of the quotas and the economic sustainability of the hunting organisations. To address the first of these pillars of current policy, we used a two-sex matrix model of the bear population to investigate the biological sustainability of current hunting levels. The model suggests that if the annual allocated quota were fully realised, the population would suffer a considerable decrease over 10 years. A likely explanation for the mismatch between this result and the observed stability of the population is that the bear population size is underestimated. To address the second pillar, we quantified the current structure, costs and benefits of bear hunting to hunting organisations through an interview survey with hunting managers. We found that bear hunting is a substantial component of hunting organisations' income, supporting the other activities of the organisation. Croatia's recent accession to the EU will require changes in their bear management system, potentially stopping bear trophy hunting. Therefore, we assessed the changes in hunting organisations' budgets in the absence of bear hunting. Our results demonstrate that a loss of bear trophy hunting would result in a substantial loss of income to the hunting organisations. Moving bear hunting and compensation mechanisms from local management and responsibility to a more centralised system without trophy hunting, as suggested by EU legislation, will lead to considerable uncertainties. These include how to make centralised decisions on population targets and offtake levels for population ...

1. Stakeholder cooperation can be vital in managing conservation conflicts. Laboratory experiments show cooperation is less likely in the presence of uncertainty. Much less is known about how stakeholders in real‐life conservation conflicts respond to different types of uncertainty. 2. We tested the effects of different sources of uncertainty on cooperative behaviour using a framed field experiment and interviews. The experiment compared a baseline scenario of perfect certainty with scenarios including either: (a) scientific uncertainty about the effectiveness of a conflict‐reduction intervention; (b) administrative uncertainty about intervention funding; or (c) political uncertainty about the extent of community support. We applied these scenarios to a conservation conflict in the Outer Hebrides, Scotland, involving the management of geese to simultaneously meet both conservation and farming objectives. We asked 149 crofters (small‐scale farmers) if they would commit to cooperate with others by helping fund a goose management plan given the three sources of uncertainty. 3. On average, intention to cooperate was highest (99%) in scenarios without uncertainty, and lowest under administrative uncertainty (77%). Scientific uncertainty and political uncertainty both had less of an effect, with over 95% of crofters predicted to be willing to cooperate in these scenarios. Crofters who indicated concern for other crofters suffering the impact of geese were more likely to cooperate. The longer an individual had been a crofter, the less likely they were to cooperate. 4. Synthesis and applications. Crofters' intention to cooperate is high but lessened by uncertainty, especially over the commitment from other stakeholders such as government, to cooperate on goose management. Existing cooperation on goose management may be at risk if uncertainty is not reduced outright or commitments between parties are not strengthened. This has wide applicability, supporting the need for researchers and government advisers to: (a) determine how uncertainty will impact intention of stakeholders to cooperate; and (b) take steps (such as uncertainty reduction, communication or acceptance) to reduce the negative impact of uncertainty on cooperation.

Acknowledgments: This study received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's H2020/ERC grant agreement no.679651 (ConFooBio) to N.B. A.B.D. is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Early Career Fellowship. We are grateful to Tim Coulson and E.J. Milner-Gulland for comments on previous versions of this manuscript. All authors conceived the study, developed the underlying theory and software, discussed the results, and wrote the manuscript. J.J.C. carried out the simulations and analyzed thedata. ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF

1. Recovering or threatened carnivore populations are often harvested to minimise their impact on human activities, such as livestock farming or game hunting. Increasingly, harvest quota decisions involve a set of scientific, administrative and political institutions operating at national and sub- national levels whose interactions and collective decision- making aim to increase the legitimacy of management and ensure population targets are met. In practice, however, as-sessments of how quota decisions change between these different actors and what consequences these changes have on population trends are rare.2. We combine a state-space population modelling approach with an analysis of quota decisions taken at both regional and national levels between 2007 and 2018 to build a set of decision- making models that together predict annual har-vest quota values for Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Norway.3. We reveal a tendency for administrative decision- makers to compensate for consistent quota increases by political actors, particularly when the lynx popula-tion size estimate is above the regional target. Using population forecasts based on the ensemble of decision- making models, we show that such buffering of po-litical biases ensures lynx population size remains close to regional and national targets in the long term.4. Our results go beyond the usual qualitative assessment of collaborative gov-ernance systems for carnivore management, revealing a system of checks and balances that, in the case of lynx in Norway, ensures both multi-stakeholder participation and sustainable harvest quotas. Nevertheless, we highlight impor-tant inter- regional differences in decision- making and population forecasts, the socio- ecological drivers of which need to be better understood to prevent fu-ture population declines.5. Synthesis and applications. Our work analyses the sequence of decisions lead-ing to yearly quotas for lynx harvest in Norway, highlighting the collaborative and structural processes that together shape harvest ...