Development trends of the European Union society show that tourism has the highest increase rate. Tourism is an important branch of every country's economy, because tourism consumption spreads over a large number of goods and services. In the last years development of country tourism in Lithuania has had a strong support from the government as well as the EU funds. The effect of economic variables on forecasting accuracy of guest numbers in Aukštaitija National Park is examined using ARMA models. The empirical results show that country tourism has a positive linear trend and the consumer price index can be used as an explanatory variable forecasting country guest number. Kaimo turizmo plėtros modeliavimas ir prognozavimas Santrauka.Europos Sąjungos raidos tendencijos byloja, kad didžiausi yra turizmo plėtros tempai. Turizmas ‐ tai svarbi kiekvienos šalies ekonomikos dalis, nes turizmo poreikiai sukuria daug papildomų prekių ir paslaugų. Per pastarąjį dešimtmetį kaimo turizmui skiriama valstybės ir Europos Sąjungos struktūrinių fondų parama. Siekiant nustatyti ekonominių kintamųjų įtaką Aukštaitijos nacionalinio parko svečių skaičiaus prognozavimo tikslumui, taikytas ARMA modelis. Empiriniai rezultatai rodo, kad kaimo turizmas plėtojasi teigiama augimo kryptimi, o vartojimo kainų indeksas gali būti taikomas kaip pagrindinis kintamasis prognozuojant svečių skaičių šalyje. Reikšminiai žodžiai: turizmo plėtra,laiko eilutės,ARMA modeliai,vartojimo kainų indeksas. First Published Online: 14 Oct 2010
Development trends of the European Union society show that tourism has the highest increase rate. Tourism is an important branch of every country's economy, because tourism consumption spreads over a large number of goods and services. In the last years development of country tourism in Lithuania has had a strong support from the government as well as the EU funds. The effect of economic variables on forecasting accuracy of guest numbers in Auk?taitija National Park is examined using ARMA models. The empirical results show that country tourism has a positive linear trend and the consumer price index can be used as an explanatory variable forecasting country guest number. Kaimo turizmo plėtros modeliavimas ir prognozavimas Santrauka Europos Sąjungos raidos tendencijos byloja, kad didžiausi yra turizmo plėtros tempai. Turizmas ‐ tai svarbi kiekvienos šalies ekonomikos dalis, nes turizmo poreikiai sukuria daug papildomų prekių ir paslaugų. Per pastarąjį dešimtmetį kaimo turizmui skiriama valstybės ir Europos Sąjungos struktūrinių fondų parama. Siekiant nustatyti ekonominių kintamųjų įtaką Aukštaitijos nacionalinio parko svečių skaičiaus prognozavimo tikslumui, taikytas ARMA modelis. Empiriniai rezultatai rodo, kad kaimo turizmas plėtojasi teigiama augimo kryptimi, o vartojimo kainų indeksas gali būti taikomas kaip pagrindinis kintamasis prognozuojant svečių skaičių šalyje. Reikšminiai žodžiai:turizmo plėtra,laiko eilutės,ARMA modeliai,vartojimo kainų indeksas First Published Online: 14 Oct 2010
ESPONTrain -"Establishment of a transnational ESPON training programme to stimulate interest to ESPON2013 knowledge"- has been a Priority 4 ESPON project aiming at making ESPON2013 knowledge operational in a coordinated and transnational way for practical use, through a specifically designed ESPON Virtual Learning Environment (VLE). The Project Consortium was comprised of ten ESPON European Contact Points (ECPs) – Greece as Lead Partner and nine Project partners (Italy, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, Cyprus, and Malta). The main aim of the ESPONTrain Project was to develop the first ESPON educational platform -a distance learning tool- making ESPON knowledge accessible and familiar to a targeted public, including postgraduate students and practitioners/stakeholders through a Virtual Learning Environment (VLE). For this purpose the ESPONTrain partners prepared and delivered a specific ESPON course design where a set of teaching material based on a number of applied research and targeted analysis ESPON Projects was developed. This ESPON VLE activity was offered to higher education institutions at postgraduate (Masters) level as well as to public and private professionals and policy makers in 10 ESPON countries. ESPONTrain developed six thematic teaching packages (TTPs) based on eight Final Reports of ESPON Priority 1 and Priority 2 projects (see list below). In each ESPONTrain country at least three thematic packages were adapted to the VLE and taught by training experts selected at national level by each participating ECP, through an open nationwide call, following a set of common selection criteria. The trainers came from relevant academic fields and being familiar with ESPON knowledge as well as adequate experience with teaching and e-learning. The Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) was built around an open source Moodle platform. Using this tool, the trainees were able to study and consult the available educational material guided by the training experts, either through asynchronous or synchronous learning (teleconference meetings). Apart from studying the teaching material, students could interact, share opinions, ask questions related to the study text as well as to the topic in general practice, test their knowledge in quizzes and confront it with the latest outcomes produced within the ESPON 2013 programme. They were also asked to carry out final assignments as part of their final evaluation. The ESPONTrain Project was highly transnational, including countries from different geographical areas (namely Northern Europe, Central Europe, Mediterranean Region and the Balkans) using the experience of different ECPs, either universities or governmental bodies, on the concerned themes and issues. Exchanges between the trainers and the coordinating ECPs were facilitated by the Lead Partner ́s central Technical VLE Team, based in Athens. ; N/A
