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Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models
In: Journal of international economics, Band 107, S. 127-146
ISSN: 0022-1996
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External and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Larger Euro Area Countries
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1647
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Working paper
Real Exchange Rate Forecasting: A Calibrated Half-life PPP Model Can Beat the Random Walk
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1576
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Working paper
The Perils of Aggregating Foreign Variables in Panel Data Models
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1444
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Bayesian Analysis of Recursive SVAR Models with Overidentifying Restrictions
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1492
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Thousands of Models, One Story: Current Account Imbalances in the Global Economy
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1441
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Euro Area Cross-Border Financial Flows and the Global Financial Crisis
In: ECB Occasional Paper No. 126
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Current Account Benchmarks for Central and Eastern Europe: A Desperate Search?
In: ECB Working Paper No. 995
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets
In: ECB Working Paper No. 739
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Welfare implications of joining a common currency
This paper examines the welfare implications of a country joining a currency union as opposed to operating in a flexible exchange rate regime. At the country level, the suboptimal response to domestic and foreign shocks and the inability of setting inflation at the desired level may be offset by a positive impact on potential output. We show that for entry to be welfare enhancing, the potential output gain must be the larger, the smaller the country, the larger the difference between the standard deviation of supply shocks across the participating countries, the smaller the correlation of countries' supply shocks and the larger the variance of real exchange rate shocks.
BASE
Boosting Carry with Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates
In: ECB Working Paper No. 2022/;2731
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