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The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). The study provides practical elements for the implementation of the Bahia sustainable rural development project - named Bahia Produtiva, which is currently implemented by Regional Development and Action Company of Bahia (CAR) and is financed by a World Bank loan. Risks in Bahia's agricultural sector are highly concentrated in soybean, maize, cotton, cacao, fruits, vegetables, and beans. There are a number of relatively frequent (1 in 3, 1 in 5 and 1 in 10 year occurrence probability) risks that have moderate expected impact. These risks are climate (drought), pest and diseases, and price volatility. Although livestock production is greatly exposed to sanitary risks, Bahia has not suffered catastrophic animal or plant health events in recent years. Looking at risks from the combined perspective of their impact potential (moderate to critical) and management possibility (none to very high), severe drought and moniliase disease in cacao appear as the risks with the most critical potential impact and minimum risk management. Therefore, they require medium to long-term investment and strong preparation to cope. Considering output value as a measure of aggregated impact of risks in Bahia as a whole, the greatest challenges are drought, aggressive pests and diseases, and weeds resistant to herbicides in Western Bahia, taking into account the proportionally large economic size of that region. The present action plan reflects the strategic lines and includes some basic details on who, when, and how much is required for the implementation of the actions. This report presents the findings and conclusions of the first and second phases of the agriculture sector risk assessment for the state of Bahia.

This study aims to achieve a better understanding of the agricultural risk and risk management situation in Tanzania with a view to identifying key solutions to reduce current gross domestic product (GDP) growth volatility. For the purpose of this assessment, risk is defined as the probability that an uncertain event will occur that can potentially produce losses to participants along the supply chain. Persistence of unmanaged risks in agriculture is a cause of great economic losses for farmers and other actors along the supply chains (for example, traders, processors, and exporters), affecting export earnings and food security. The agricultural sector risk assessment is a straightforward methodology based on a three-phase sequential process. Phase analyzes the chronological occurrence of inter-seasonal agricultural risks with a view to identify and prioritize the risks that are the drivers of agricultural GDP volatility. This report contains the findings and recommendations of the first phase and includes the identification, analysis, and prioritization of major risks facing the agricultural sector in Tanzania, as well as recommendations regarding key solutions. Chapter one gives introduction and context. Chapter two contains an overview of the agricultural sector and its performance, as well as a discussion of key agro-climatic, weather, and policy restrictions and opportunities. Chapter three includes an assessment of major risks (that is, production, market, and enabling environment risks) facing key export and food crops. Chapter four presents an estimate of historical losses due to realized production risks and a correlation of such losses with production volatility. Chapter five provides insights into the exposure to risks by different stakeholders and their actual capacities, vulnerabilities, and potential to manage agricultural risks. Chapter six presents a risk prioritization by different supply chains and discusses the possible solutions, as well as specific recommendations for the agricultural sector development program (ASDP).

Latin America is becoming the fastest growing agricultural production region and Brazil has by far the fastest growing agricultural sector. China from being a small agricultural importer (1.4% of world imports in 1990/01), became the fifth largest importer at 5.4% of world imports in 2006/07. China's overall trade with Latin America has expanded substantially during the last two decades -the rate of growth has been greater than any other region in the world since 2005. Most exports from Latin America to China are primary products while Chinese exports to Latin America are mostly industrial products. The Chinese demand for agricultural products is concentrated in food products such as grains and oilseeds. Countries specialised in those commodities -eg. Brazil and Argentina-exhibit a strong orientation on the Chinese market. In turn, growing subsectors in China, like fruits and vegetables, are posing strong competition to some world supplier countries in Latin America such as Chile and Peru. Since China is promoting structural reforms of its agricultural sector, aimed at increasing productivity and improving food security, and is expanding their direct investments overseas to secure provision of raw materials, Latin American governments need to pursue long-run strategic public policies. They need to optimize trade results and promote production efficiency that on one hand contribute to take advantage of the current market situation but at the same time assure the protection of the natural resources and preserve the production capacity and the agricultural diversity.

Abstract: Latin America is becoming the fastest growing agricultural production region and Brazil has by far the fastest growing agricultural sector. China from being a small agricultural importer (1.4% of world imports in 1990/01), became the fifth largest importer at 5.4% of world imports in 2006/07. China"s overall trade with Latin America has expanded substantially during the last two decades -the rate of growth has been greater than any other region in the world since 2005. Most exports from Latin America to China are primary products while Chinese exports to Latin America are mostly industrial products. The Chinese demand for agricultural products is concentrated in food products such as grains and oilseeds. Countries specialised in those commodities –eg. Brazil and Argentinaexhibit a strong orientation on the Chinese market. In turn, growing subsectors in China, like fruits and vegetables, are posing strong competition to some world supplier countries in Latin America such as Chile and Peru. Since China is promoting structural reforms of its agricultural sector, aimed at increasing productivity and improving food security, and is expanding their direct investments overseas to secure provision of raw materials, Latin American governments need to pursue long-run strategic public policies. They need to optimize trade results and promote production efficiency that on one hand contribute to take advantage of the current market situation but at the same time assure the protection of the natural resources and preserve the production capacity and the agricultural diversity

Despite myriad challenges, Kenya has emerged in recent years as one of Africa's frontier economies, with headline growth in the most recent decade propelling the country toward middle-income status. Less well understood is how risk dynamics associated with production, markets, and policy adversely impact sector performance, in terms of both influencing ex ante decision making among farmers, traders, and other sector stakeholders and causing ex post losses to crops, livestock, and incomes - destabilizing livelihoods and jeopardizing the country's food security. The present study was commissioned in part to bridge this knowledge gap. It is the first step in a multiphase process designed to integrate a stronger risk focus into sector planning and development programs. It seeks to learn from and build on a range of broad initiatives by the Government of Kenya (GoK) and its development partners purposed to enhance Kenya's resilience and response to natural disasters. The ultimate objective is implementation of a holistic and systematic risk management system that will reduce the vulnerability and strengthen the resiliency of Kenya's agricultural supply chains, and the livelihoods that depend on them. This sector risk assessment is the primary output of phase one. The study's main objective is to identify, assess, and prioritize principal risks facing Kenya's agriculture sector by analyzing their impacts via quantitative and qualitative measures. The study's main findings highlight an agriculture sector increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather variability. Chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides an overview of Kenya's agriculture sector and a discussion of key growth constraints. Chapter three assesses the main agricultural risks (production, market, and enabling environment). Chapter four analyzes the frequency and severity of the major risks identified and assesses their impact. Chapter five presents some stakeholder perceptions of these risks and the potential to improve their management. Chapter six concludes with an assessment of priorities for risk management and a broad discussion of possible risk management measures that can help to strengthen the resiliency of agricultural supply chains and the livelihoods they support.