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Purpose– This paper aims to propose a model, based on strategic simulation and scenario planning, to improve the decision-making process in the Brazilian defence area.Design/methodology/approach– Participants are disposed in three levels: decision-makers team – which goes beyond the Ministry of Defence (and military services) alone and includes other representatives of the executive and legislative branches; political and strategic advisory team – civilian representatives with a broad understanding of the national and international contexts that can contribute to developing insights and shaping the forces that may contribute to the nation's future; and experts database— experts in fields of interest to national defence, comprising representatives of several sectors and broad areas of knowledge, including scholars, scientists, politicians, military, industry, among others.Findings– The planning and preparation of national defence strategies require a long-term approach, which is multidisciplinary, participatory and contextualized to the geopolitical and institutional frames of the country.Research limitations/implications– However, despite many policy papers intentions, defence issues have always been considered a matter for the military arena due to the country's cultural background.Practical/implications– Because decisions about defence have long-range impacts and political implications, policy-makers should shape them bearing in mind a complex and politically shared foresight process.Social/implications– This proposed planning process enables a participatory engagement with some civil organizations and individuals as well as amplifies their commitment in national defence issues.Originality/value– The proposal is innovative in South America, considering that it encompasses integrated simulations on participatory foresight processes as well as broadened the civilian–military dynamic relationship and the diverse viewpoints in defence implications analysis to include a wider share of the Brazilian society.

Erworben im Rahmen der Schweizer Nationallizenen (http://www.nationallizenz.ch) ; In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise 'Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges' which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors. This exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues; the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters; and the interpretation of resulting clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures. In order to achieve such objectives, horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues. Furthermore, these methods provide support for traceability, which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresight.