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The paper evaluates the macroeconomic and distributional implications for Italian households and regions of both climate change impacts and a carbon tax. We use a recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model to evaluate aggregate changes in prices, income and expenditure, and a sequential arithmetic micro-simulation module to downscale them to the household level. Climate change impacts are regressive, adding to the already regressive effects of a carbon tax. Wealthy households reduce expenditure on gas and petroleum fuels the most, whereas households in the lowest deciles increase electricity expenditure relatively more. Climate and policy impacts differ significantly also within income groups, reflecting regional variations in the size of climate shocks, the prevalent climate conditions, and the energy mix. We highlight a new emerging risk related to those households that will be exposed to higher temperatures and will not be able to sustain the electricity expenditure needed for adaptation, and we emphasize the importance of accounting for the distributional consequences of climate change impacts when designing climate policies.

This analysis lies in the stream of research related to the quantitative assessment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by the United Nations at the end of September 2015. We assemble a composite multi-dimensional index and a worldwide ranking of current sustainability. This makes it possible to assess the strengths and weaknesses of today's socio-economic development, as well as environmental criticalities worldwide. The methodology goes through the following steps: screening of indicators capable of addressing the UN's SDGs; data collection from relevant sources; organization into three pillars of sustainability (economy, society, and environment); normalization to a common metrics; aggregation of the 26 indicators into composite indices by pillars as well as in a multi-dimensional index. The final ranking includes 139 countries. Sweden, Norway and Switzerland are at the top of the ranking.

The Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development embody highly intertwined targets to act for climate in conjunction with sustainable development. This, however, entails different meanings and challenges across the world. Kenya, in particular, needs to address serious sustainability threats, like poverty and lack of modern and affordable energy access. This study uses a multi-criteria group decision aid and consensus measuring framework, to integrate both agendas, and engages with Kenyan stakeholders to help inform future mitigation research and policy in the country. Results showed that stakeholders highlight topics largely underrepresented in model-based mitigation analysis, such as biodiversity preservation and demand-side transformations, while pointing to gaps in cross-sectoral policies in relation to access to modern energy, agriculture, life on land, and climate change mitigation. With numerous past and recent policies aiming at these issues, persistent stakeholder concerns over these topics hint at limited success. Sectoral and technological priorities only recently emphasised in Kenyan policy efforts are also correlated with stakeholders' concerns, highlighting that progress is not only a matter of legislation, but also of coordination, consistency of targets, and comprehensibility. Higher bias is found among the preferences of stakeholders coming from the country's private sector. Results from this exercise can inform national policymakers on effectively reshaping the future direction of the country, as well as modelling efforts aimed at underpinning Kenya's energy, climate and sustainable development policy.

The Digital Revolution, including technologies such as virtual and augmented reality, additive manufacturing or 3D-printing, (general purpose) artificial intelligence, or the Internet of Things, has entered the public discourse in many countries. Looking back, it is almost impossible to believe that digitalization is barely featured in the 2030 Agenda or the Paris Agreement. It is increasingly clear that digital changes, we refer to them as the Digital Revolution, are becoming a key driving force in societal transformation. The transformation towards sustainability for all must be harmonized with the threats, opportunities and dynamics of the Digital Revolution, the goals of the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement. At the same time, the digital transformation will radically alter all dimensions of global societies and economies and will therefore change the interpretation of the sustainability paradigm itself. Digitalization is not only an 'instrument' to resolve sustainability challenges, it is also fundamental as a driver of disruptive change. This report that focuses on the Digital Revolution is the second one by The World in 2050 (TWI2050) that was established by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and other partners to provide scientific foundations for the 2030 Agenda. This report is based on the voluntary and collaborative effort of more than 50 authors and contributors from about 20 institutions, and some 100 independent experts from academia, business, government, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations from all the regions of the world, who met four times at IIASA to develop science-based strategies and pathways toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Presentations of the TWI2050 approach and work have been made at many international meetings such as the United Nations Science, Technology and Innovation Forums and the United Nations High-level Political Forums. In 2018, the first report by TWI2050 on Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable ...

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0–2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs.

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0–2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs.