Suchergebnisse

AbstractNet migration has become the main factor driving Norwegian population growth. This article explores how changes in regulations and immigration policies have affected gross immigration to Norway. As in previous econometric studies, it finds that income differences and income distribution have a bearing on immigration, as well as aspects of the labour market. Various immigration policies have largely had the expected effects, and Norway's membership of the European economic area since 1994 and inclusion in the Schengen area in 2001 have resulted in higher immigration. The enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007 substantially increased immigration to Norway. By 2010, the EU‐related changes in regulations increased total immigration by some 20 per cent compared to a counterfactual situation where Norway did not become party to either of these agreements. The partial and accumulated effect on the total population in Norway in 2010 is estimated to be about 2 per cent.

We examine how changes to regulations and the economic conditions have influenced gross immigration to Norway from, in principle, all countries in the world during 1969- 2010. In line with existing studies of immigration we find that economic factors were important for immigration to Norway. Income differences between Norway and other countries have the expected impact, as do changes in income distributions. The labour market situation has also been important in that lower unemployment in Norway has resulted in higher immigration and higher unemployment in the country of origin has led to higher emigration to Norway. We find that immigration policies have largely had the expected effects. One example is the 1975 'immigration halt' that did have a strong and long lasting effect on total immigration to Norway. Further tightening of the immigration regulations that came in 1977 also reduced immigration, while the more liberal policies introduced in 1981 contributed to higher immigration. From 2000 to 2010 several changes linked to the enlargement of EU influenced immigration to Norway. Norway's membership in the European Economic Area (EEA) in 1994, and in the Schengen-area in 2001 resulted in higher immigration while the 2004 and 2007 EU enlargements also increased labour immigration to Norway substantially.

During the second half of the 1970s there was massive government interference in wage and price formation in Norway. Incomes policies changed in the first half of the 1980s - the hey days of "dynamic tax policies" in Norway - and during the second half of the 1980s new direct interventions in wage formation were implemented. These episodes of incomes policies are discussed and their empirical importance is assessed in the econometric price and wage equations of a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy. Model simulations show that while price regulations generally led to an expansion of output and loss of cost competitiveness, wage regulation produced both output expansion and gain in competitiveness. The dynamic tax policy implemented in Norway was less successful and led to both higher prices and wages as well as lower output.

Ulikt flere andre land i Midtøsten har ikke Saudi-Arabia blitt rammet av omfattende politisk uro. Økonomisk vekst og aktiv velferdspolitikk kan ha bidratt til en mer stabil politisk situasjon. Krig og misnøye i deler av Midtøsten kan imidlertid spre seg til Saudi-Arabia og true stabiliteten.

Although substantial research has been conducted to quantify the determinants of international migration, most official population projections do not include such determinants in a formal migration model. Statistics Norway forecasts gross immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration theories. The main variables include income level, unemployment, and population size in Norway and the sending countries, and the number of immigrants already living in Norway. Projections of exogenous variables are drawn from international and Norwegian sources. Three different alternatives are specified for the income variables, leading to three different forecasts for gross immigration until 2100.