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PurposeThis Guest Editorial aims to demonstrate the diversity of application fields in which FTA methods are being used and to offer a glimpse into possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA.Design/methodology/approachThis introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 Conference contributions for this Special Issue.FindingsFTA approaches create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision‐building and consensus‐building for engineering major processes of transformation. Therefore, sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges.Research limitations/implicationsFrom a large set of excellent papers presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, only a restricted number of papers could be included in this Special Issue highlighting the broad diversity of FTA application fields in response to grand challenges.Practical implicationsFTA can contribute not only to the steering of diverse innovation systems, but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges.Social implicationsThe papers of this Special Issue point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives and to shape the social context.Originality/valueThis Special Issue brings together papers that explore not only the opportunities and limitations of implementing FTA methods in a variety of policy domains, but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems that interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.

PurposeThe paper seeks to discuss how foresight is used to understand the implications of global changes for research and innovation policies. It aims to present a recent Irish case study that identified grand challenges in the national context, with their implications for research and innovation.Design/methodology/approachThe foresight project is described and provides knowledge and analysis for a broader, national research prioritisation exercise. The paper analyses the implementation of the Irish foresight exercise and the main outputs generated. It connects the results of the project with the literature on foresight, innovation and grand challenges.FindingsThe emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice. Although many grand challenges have relatively clear implications for research and innovation (investment), others do not. A bottom‐up, participatory process produced a broader set of grand challenges.Research limitations/implicationsThe concept of grand challenges is still relatively new.Practical implicationsNot all research and innovation priorities are linked to grand challenges. National policies need to take account of grand challenges whilst continuing to support other research and innovation needs.Originality/valueThe paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom‐up process.

PurposeThis paper aims to present an exploration of recent work in complexity theory to explain why and how disruptive events happen in systems and how responses could be better, particularly in the policy‐making arena.Design/methodology/approachThe main method applied is critical thinking combined with a review of selected aspects of complexity theory and a general experience of applying foresight. Several new and practical implications for foresight techniques and their application are derived. Promoting variation is examined as one way to make policies more resilient in a complex system.FindingsComplexity science demonstrates that disruptive events do not need an associated trigger, as they are a normal part of a complex system. This insight implies that if we are always looking for weak signals we will certainly be caught unawares.Practical implicationsThe assumption that disruptive events can be managed by planning and forecasting is not a workable option. Instead, policy making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place. Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence and to provide capabilities such as reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives, including those considered impossible now.Originality/valueAlthough neither complexity theory nor the concept of reframing is new in the area of foresight, the derivation of practical implications for foresight techniques is original.

PurposeThis paper aims to analyse three individual foresight projects referring to the natural resources sector in Russia, their interconnection and influence on policy decision making.Design/methodology/approachThe three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal. First the projects' interconnections are explained. Second, each of the studies is characterised from different viewpoints, including their aims, structures, methodologies and results. Finally their influence on policy‐making is evaluated.FindingsThe paper concludes that implementation of these three interrelated studies allows identification of S&T&I priorities that have a strong connection with policy decision making. Therefore, on the basis of this experience, it is suggested that a widespread national Delphi survey for the identification of science and technology (S&T) priorities should be complemented by the identification of key long‐term demand for resources and reshaped management systems.Originality/valueFor the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.

PurposeAs in other socio‐technical fields, future‐oriented technology analysis (FTA) methods are used in transport planning to provide knowledge for decision‐making. Potential effects of policy interventions should be assessed; risk and uncertainties should be reduced; unintended effects should be avoided. A variety of tools and methods of rather different character are applied, none of these methods are able to systematically reproduce a complete system; they all have their specific limits. It is not always clear, however, which method could be used for which purpose. In this paper, a transparent and problem‐oriented categorisation of FTA‐methods is suggested. It aims at supporting an appropriate usage of FTA‐methods in planning processes.Design/methodology/approachA literature review carried out in context of the EU funded transport project OPTIC (see www.optic.toi.no) reveals that differentiating between different types of uncertainty is possible. This sets the basis for the problem‐oriented categorisation of FTA methods. Key criteria for the categorisation of methods are their abilities in dealing with different types of missing knowledge.FindingsTwo categories are introduced which are called "structurally open methods" and "structurally closed methods". It is shown that the openness‐closedness dichotomy is highly important for the type of unintended effects that can be detected with a method.Originality/valueThe paper has a novel approach for structuring FTA techniques that goes beyond the traditional quantitative/qualitative approach. It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods

PurposeThe objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies, especially backcasting, can be used to assist public policy formulation. Backcasting is particularly interesting method in this context, since it allows the key characteristics concerning the state of the future to be fixed according to the goals policymakers have set to achieve.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is a case study presenting the goals, progression and the results of the backcasting exercise of the Finnish Prime Minister's Office.FindingsThe backcasting methodology, as applied in the exercise presented in this paper, is a useful tool in public policy formulation. It is important to note, however, that in the way the exercise was carried out in this case, it is only possible to view future development through qualitative arguments. The key element for successful application of the method is the choice of expert group that produces the information.Originality/valueEven though backcasting seems to be very well suited for discussing and designing alternative ways of achieving predetermined policy goals, experiences of using this methodology in the policy context are quite rare in the scientific literature. This paper addresses this deficiency and presents experiences of one such case. These experiences should be of interest to those involved in long‐range strategy planning.

PurposeThis paper seeks to propose the application of future‐oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law. As law traditionally reacts after events and is resistant to change and transformation, the article argues for equipping legal activities with a set of tools, methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide society.Design/methodology/approachThe paper describes a series of real world examples and case studies – pilot projects, research consortia and academic programmes – that are already employing FTA methodological approaches to pursue their objectives.FindingsBased on these examples, the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario‐planning, modelling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement. The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to law may bring about. While the introduction of FTA tools and techniques to law is deemed extremely important and useful, the paper also draws attention to the problems and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research.Originality/valueFuture‐oriented legal studies are rare and, what is worse, the ones that exist lack proper methodology, failing to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies. This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future, and presents a new methodological approach to law. It proposes the application of future‐oriented analysis (FTA) – as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools – to the legal sphere.

PurposeThis article aims to show the opportunity and benefits of linking territorial foresight tools to urban planning procedures. Additionally, it suggests ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in‐depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages.Design/methodology/approachThese assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.FindingsMajor findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory. In addition, the study confirms that foresight offers interesting opportunities for urban planners, such as anticipating changes, fostering participation and building networks, in contrast to its perception as a mere story‐telling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis.Research limitations/implicationsIn order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners, three sets of implications – functional, parametric and spatial – are displayed to provide substantial information for policy makers.Originality/valueThe value of the present work lies in the synergy that can be generated between territorial foresight and urban planning, offering a great opportunity for policy makers to use futurists' output as input for urban planners' work.

PurposeThe mere generation of foresight results is not sufficient in itself to influence research policy. Research policy makers need specific information and insight on how the structured view of the future provided by foresight affects their strategic planning. Therefore, deriving the maximum benefit from foresight activities requires a carefully designed and actively driven transfer process of foresight results into research policy making. This paper aims to present such a process ("strategic dialogue") and illustrate it with recent examples from Germany.Design/methodology/approachThe authors compare strategic dialogues with existing dialogue instruments and investigate the relevance of their theoretical foundations to transferring foresight results into research policy making. They capture the lessons learnt from such dialogues in a seven‐step process that can be adapted to specific situations. Specific success factors are identified and linked to the process.FindingsStrategic dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the transfer of results from strategic processes such as foresight into research policy making. They ensure that foresight results are processed into a form that is directly useful as an input for policy development. They also help to create a joint vision for the future and to shape supporting infrastructure measures.Originality/valueThe transfer of foresight results into research policy making has not featured prominently so far in discussions of foresight efforts and methods. However, it is a crucial element in ensuring that such activities have maximum impact.

PurposeTo anticipate science and technology (S&T) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state‐of‐the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering, analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation.Design/methodology/approachDelphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan, South Korea and China, and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes. Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross‐compared and visualized in an aggregated view.FindingsBy this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are systematically mapped and integrated for viewing future technology options and interactions. Similarities and discrepancies for prospecting the future technology trajectory among these countries are also identified.Research limitations/implicationsIt would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports. This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions. Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality and help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&T and the current capability.Originality/valueThe integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence by utilizing the results deriving from the former as targets for analysis and the analytic practice deriving from the latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.