Suchergebnisse

This systematic country diagnostic (SCD) discusses on Belize's ability to promote faster poverty reduction and greater shared prosperity which will depend on how well the country deals with its main sources of vulnerability. The main areas in need of a big push that could have the highest potential impact on the twin goals are : (i) improving education and skills; (ii) addressing crime and violence; and, (iii) increasing resilience to climate change and natural disasters. Strengthening resilience to natural disasters and climate change along with improvements in the existing infrastructure in Belize are critical to support the twin goals to end extreme poverty, and promote shared prosperity in poorer segments of society. Sustainable progress towards the achievement of the twin goals of reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity in Belize will also require prioritizing fiscal sustainability. This SCD is structured in six chapters that range from a brief description of the main features of Belize to the discussion of priorities for growth and shared prosperity. Chapter 1 presents the country context, highlighting Belize's main features as a small upper middle income country that faces high volatility associated with its size and vulnerability to exogenous shocks. Chapter 2 discusses trends in poverty and shared prosperity. Chapters 2 through 5 discuss the main underlying factors that have been found to influence Belize's growth performance as well as its economic, social and environmental sustainability. Each of these chapters discuss in greater detail the nature of the challenges, dig deeper into exploring the likely causes of these challenges, and identify policy areas that could be critical for boosting growth and inclusion and ensuring sustainability. These chapters also identify knowledge and data gaps on areas where new information could help strengthen a diagnosis and inform specific actions in the priority areas. The sixth and final chapter has three important and distinctive features. First, it provides a synthesis of the analysis and findings of the previous chapters. Second, it provides a discussion of the approach used to identify the priorities for action in Belize. And, third, it concludes with a discussion of the priorities to boost shared prosperity and ensure economic, social and environmental sustainability in Belize.

This report presents an analysis of the patterns of trade intra-firms and the determinants of the Brazilian exports. The main objective is to verify whether export firms with foreign capital interact with their mother companies in the country of origin of their capital. The results suggest strong interaction. (IPEA/DÜI)

This article investigates the characteristics of industrial wage determination in Brazil using time series data for 22 manufacturing sectors for 1985-93. The idea is to verify whether changes in sectoral productivity are relevant to explain changes in sectoral nominal wages. First, the results of a statistical investigation of the data are presented. A second, more encompassing purpose of the article, is to interpret the results by means of a more elaborate econometric analysis. The evidence suggests that rent-sharing is indeed a pervasive feature of the Brazilian industrial labour market. (DSE/DÜI)

RESUMO Esse artigo discute explicações alternativas para a rigidez dos salários reais na presença de desemprego involuntário. Argumenta-se que a rigidez do salário real pode ser vista como resultado de dois fatores: (i) poder de barganha dos sindicatos, na forma de poder interno; e (ii) a ação deliberada de empresas que procuram evitar os custos associados à rotatividade da mão de obra. O artigo também apresenta evidências empíricas recentes sobre a importância de fatores internos no processo de determinação de salários para vários países.

RESUMO O artigo discute algumas questões relacionadas à ideia de flexibilidade no mercado de trabalho. Em primeiro lugar, apresenta diferentes abordagens sobre a existência de um setor informal na economia e distingue o processo moderno de terciarização, observado nos países industrializados, do crescimento das atividades terciárias encontrado na maioria dos países em desenvolvimento. Em segundo lugar, é apresentada uma breve discussão sobre a recente conjuntura do mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Conclui-se que um maior grau de flexibilização do mercado de trabalho brasileiro tem sido buscado por meio da informalização das atividades jurídicas e também por um incipiente processo de terciarização moderna.

This paper analyzes the business cycle characteristics of the economies of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States using a model of a small open economy subject to interest rate and fiscal expenditure shocks and financial frictions. The paper shows that macroeconomic aggregates in this region are quite volatile, with consumption exhibiting higher volatility than gross domestic product. The analysis also finds that in these economies real interest rates are highly volatile and strongly countercyclical with gross domestic product and other macroeconomic aggregates. Similarly, fiscal expenditures show significant volatility, but are pro-cyclical with gross domestic product. The results suggest two major directions for designing policies to help reduce the volatility experienced by the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States economies. First, Organization of Eastern Caribbean States countries should seek a greater openness to international financial markets, which could help them smooth out the effects of fundamental shocks, such as shocks to technology and terms of trade, and shocks associated with natural hazards. However, this removal of international financial barriers needs to be accompanied by improvements in domestic financial conditions, as this would reduce the vulnerability of these economies to country risk premium shocks. Second, the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States region should try harder to move toward a countercyclical fiscal policy stance, as this could help to stabilize the domestic risk premium and cushion the negative effects of interest rate shocks on economic activity, hence reducing volatility.

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on growth of real gross domestic product per capita. Based on five-year non-overlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980–2010, the paper finds that: (i) in model specifications that do not include country fixed effects, terms of trade volatility has a significant negative average effect on economic growth; (ii) once country fixed effects are included in the model, the average effect of terms of trade volatility on economic growth is not significantly different from zero; (iii) robust to the inclusion of country fixed effects, terms of trade volatility has significantly adverse effects on economic growth in countries with pro-cyclical fiscal policy; and (iv) in model specifications that do not include country fixed effects, financial development is a significant mediating factor with regard to the effect that terms of trade volatility has on economic growth, however, the significance of this effect vanishes once country fixed effects are included in the model. The paper also explores these relationships for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States region. A key conclusion from the research is that countercyclical fiscal policy and deeper financial markets will have particularly high payoffs in reducing the adverse growth effects of terms of trade volatility in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States region.