Suchergebnisse

This book presents International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium commissioned papers. The papers systematically explore the conceptual and empirical dimensions of the new trade theory and try to determine the potential application to agricultural trade and trade policy analysis.

China, with over 20 percent of the earth's population, is both the world's largest producer and largest consumer of cereal grains. As a consequence, the supply and demand of grain in China will have a major impact on the world food trade. In this comprehensive study of China's grain production and trade, Colin A. Carter and Fu-Ning Zhong trace the historical role of China in the grain trade; analyze the impact of economic and political variables on production, consumption, and trade; and discuss alternative scenarios for China's future levels of trade. This is the first study to move beyond aggregate data to deal with regional models of Chinese grain production. The authors' major findings are that budgetary pressures will limit further increases in grain prices, and consequently the growth rate in grain yields will slow. As the total population continues to increase, China's area planted in grain will decline. The Chinese will gradually shift their food consumption toward more meat and other indirect grain consumption; therefore China may continue to import a limited amount of grain but imports will shift from wheat to feed grains.

AbstractCanada regulates its dairy and poultry industries through supply management. The supply‐management programs use target prices, production quotas and import tariff‐rate quotas to raise domestic prices. Canadian supply‐managed producers cannot export their output to world markets as exports would be considered subsidized under World Trade Organization rules. In this paper, we show that once foregone export opportunities are accounted for, supply management may no longer be beneficial to domestic producers of the supply‐managed commodities. The extent to which foregone profits from exports dominate domestic rents depends on Canada's comparative advantage, domestic market elasticities and the extent of supply management distortion in the domestic market.