Suchergebnisse

Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012. ; [EN]The study of extreme events has become of great interest in the recent years due to their direct impact on society. Extremes can be evaluated by using either extreme value statistics or extreme indicators, the latter being based in order statistics on the tail of the probability distribution (typically percentiles). In this study we analyze the highest (95p) and the lowest (5p) percentiles in maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively, derived from different downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical) in the Iberian Peninsula. In particular, we analyze the results of the esTcena and ESCENA projects, two strategic actions of Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2008-2011 funded by the Spanish government, which contributed to the new version of the regional climate change scenarios program Escenarios-PNACC 2012 within Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático. ; [ES]El estudio de eventos extremos se ha convertido recientemente en un tema de gran interés debido a su impacto directo en la sociedad. Los extremos pueden ser evaluados por medio de la Teoría de Valores Extremos o mediante indicadores de extremos, estos últimos basados en los estadísticos de la cola de la distribución de probabilidad (típicamente percentiles). En este estudio analizamos uno de los percentiles más altos en temperatura máxima (95) y de los más bajos en la mínima (5) obtenidos a partir de diferentes métodos de regionalización (estadísticos y dinámicos) en la Península Ibérica. En particular, hemos analizado los resultados de los proyectos esTcena y ESCENA, dos acciones estratégicas del Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2008-2011 financiado por el Gobierno de España, que contribuyen a la nueva versión del programa de escenarios regionales de cambio climático Escenarios-PNACC 2012 dentro del Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático. ; This study is supported by projects EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) ...

Systematic biases in climate models hamper their direct use in impact studies and, as a consequence, many statistical bias adjustment methods have been developed to calibrate model outputs against observations. The application of these methods in a climate change context is problematic since there is no clear understanding on how these methods may affect key magnitudes, for example, the climate change signal or trend, under different sources of uncertainty. Two relevant sources of uncertainty, often overlooked, are the sensitivity to the observational reference used to calibrate the method and the effect of the resolution mismatch between model and observations (downscaling effect). In the present work, we assess the impact of these factors on the climate change signal of temperature and precipitation considering marginal, temporal and extreme aspects. We use eight standard and state‐of‐the‐art bias adjustment methods (spanning a variety of methods regarding their nature—empirical or parametric—, fitted parameters and trend‐preservation) for a case study in the Iberian Peninsula. The quantile trend‐preserving methods (namely quantile delta mapping (QDM), scaled distribution mapping (SDM) and the method from the third phase of ISIMIP‐ISIMIP3) preserve better the raw signals for the different indices and variables considered (not all preserved by construction). However, they rely largely on the reference dataset used for calibration, thus presenting a larger sensitivity to the observations, especially for precipitation intensity, spells and extreme indices. Thus, high‐quality observational datasets are essential for comprehensive analyses in larger (continental) domains. Similar conclusions hold for experiments carried out at high (approximately 20 km) and low (approximately 120 km) spatial resolutions. ; We acknowledge the E‐OBS dataset from the EU‐FP6 project UERRA (https://www.uerra.eu) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the data providers in the ECA&D project (https://eca.knmi.nl). The authors are grateful to the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. We also thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure an international effort led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, the European Network for Earth System Modelling and other partners in the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals (GO‐ESSP). This study contributes to the EURO‐CORDEX pillar on statistical downscaling, which is a follow‐up of the EU COST Action ES1102 VALUE (Validating and Integrating Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Research). Participation of S. Herrera and J.M. Gutiérrez was partially supported by the project AfriCultuReS (European Union's Horizon 2020 program, grant agreement no, 774652). S. Lange acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 641816 (CRESCENDO). The authors are also grateful to three anonymous reviewers who helped to improve the original manuscript. ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (published version)

Objectives: To provide perspectives from the HEAT-SHIELD project (www.heat-shield.eu): a multi-national, inter-sectoral, and cross-disciplinary initiative, incorporating twenty European research institutions, as well as occupational health and industrial partners, on solutions to combat negative health and productivity effects caused by working on a warmer world. Methods: In this invited review, we focus on the theoretical and methodological advancements developed to combat occupational heat stress during the last five years of operation. Results: We outline how we created climate forecast models to incorporate humidity, wind and solar radiation to the traditional temperature-based climate projections, providing the basis for timely, policy-relevant, industry-specific and individualized information. Further, we summarise the industry-specific guidelines we developed regarding technical and biophysical cooling solutions considering effectiveness, cost, sustainability, and the practical implementation potential in outdoor and indoor settings, in addition to field-testing of selected solutions with time-motion analyses and biophysical evaluations. All recommendations were adjusted following feedback from workshops with employers, employees, safety officers, and adjacent stakeholders such as local or national health policy makers. The cross-scientific approach was also used for providing policy-relevant information based on socioeconomic analyses and identification of vulnerable regions considered to be more relevant for political actions than average continental recommendations and interventions. Discussion: From the HEAT-SHIELD experiences developed within European settings, we discuss how this inter-sectoral approach may be adopted or translated into actionable knowledge across continents where workers and societies are affected by escalating environmental temperatures.

To make sound decisions in the face of climate change, government agencies, policymakers and private stakeholders require suitable climate information on local to regional scales. In Switzerland, the development of climate change scenarios is strongly linked to the climate adaptation strategy of the Confederation. The current climate scenarios for Switzerland CH2018 - released in form of six user-oriented products - were the result of an intensive collaboration between academia and administration under the umbrella of the National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS), accounting for user needs and stakeholder dialogues from the beginning. A rigorous scientific concept ensured consistency throughout the various analysis steps of the EURO-CORDEX projections and a common procedure on how to extract robust results and deal with associated uncertainties. The main results show that Switzerland's climate will face dry summers, heavy precipitation, more hot days and snow-scarce winters. Approximately half of these changes could be alleviated by mid-century through strong global mitigation efforts. A comprehensive communication concept ensured that the results were rolled out and distilled in specific user-oriented communication measures to increase their uptake and to make them actionable. A narrative approach with four fictitious persons was used to communicate the key messages to the general public. Three years after the release, the climate scenarios have proven to be an indispensable information basis for users in climate adaptation and for downstream applications. Potential for extensions and updates has been identified since then and will shape the concept and planning of the next scenario generation in Switzerland. ; Climate Scenarios for Switzerland CH2018 – Approach and Implications ; publishedVersion