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Abstract This article investigates the main welfare state developments of the Russian Federation that have occurred since the fall of communism. It argues that the contemporary welfare expansion strictly depends on high oil and gas prices, and that this oil‐led social policy makes the future of the 'Russian miracle' highly volatile. The main conclusion is that the Russian welfare state will be able to function properly and to ensure social integration and solidarity only under conditions of sustained oil‐led growth. The article also identifies a variety of different, but equally important, endogenous, as well as exogenous, factors that have influenced the social policy developments in the Russian Federation since 1989. These correspond to the existence of few veto points present in the political arena, the lack of a well‐structured system of interest representation, the presence of informality in the welfare state organization, but also to the presence of national economic vulnerabilities and/or strengths in the now open global economy, as well as to non‐contingent decisions taken in strategic sectors of the state, such as those related to the energy or defence sectors.

This article examines the economic and social transformation occurring in post-communist societies, with a particular focus on the emergence of new social risks (NSRs) and the subsequent welfare state responses. It argues that Central and Eastern European countries are characterised by broader NSR types (a mix of old and new social risks) and groups than those present in the West. In order to deal more effectively with the requirements of the post-industrial, knowledge-based, and service economy, the reasons for a new political economy of skill formation and for a new empowering politics of the welfare state capable of strengthening the potential of individuals to adapt to more fl exible labour markets are discussed. The new empowering politics of the welfare state proposed here would consist of four main pillars: 1) a guaranteed minimum income; 2) a basic income for children; 3) state investments for education and human capital formation; and 4) a guaranteed basic pension. The aim is to empower the individual through de-commodification, childhood investment, human capital formation, and a rebalancing of life risks. The article concludes by refl ecting on the political feasibility of this proposal.