Suchergebnisse

Probabilistic graphical models allow us to encode a large probability distribution as a composition of smaller ones. It is oftentimes the case that we are interested in incorporating in the model the idea that some of these smaller distributions are likely to be similar to one another. In this paper we provide an information geometric approach on how to incorporate this information and see that it allows us to reinterpret some already existing models. Our proposal relies on providing a formal definition of what it means to be close. We provide an example on how this definition can be actioned for multinomial distributions. We use the results on multinomial distributions to reinterpret two already existing hierarchical models in terms of closeness distributions. ; This work was partially supported by the projects Crowd4SDG and Humane-AI-net, which have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements No 872944 and No 952026, respectively. This work was also partially supported by Grant PID2019-104156GB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. ; Peer reviewed

In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a probability distribution over the parameters of our model" to the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a probability distribution over probability distributions". To do that we assume that our probabilistic model is a Riemannian manifold with the Fisher metric. Under this mindset, any distribution over probability distributions should be "intrinsic", that is, invariant to the specific parametrization which is selected for the manifold. We exemplify our ideas through a simple analysis of distributions over the manifold of Bernoulli distributions. One of the major shortcomings of maximum a posteriori estimates is that they depend on the parametrization. Based on the understanding developed here, we can define the maximum a posteriori estimate which is independent of the parametrization. ; This work was partially supported by the projects Crowd4SDG and Humane-AI-net, which have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements No 872944 and No 952026, respectively. This work was also partially supported by the project CI-SUSTAIN funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2019-104156GB-I00). ; Peer reviewed

[en]Convergence of a stochastic process is an intrinsic property quite relevant for its successful practical for example for the function optimization problem. Lyapunov functions are widely used as tools to prove convergence of optimization procedures. However, identifying a Lyapunov function for a specific stochastic process is a difficult and creative task. This work aims to provide a geometric explanation to convergence results and to state and identify conditions for the convergence of not exclusively optimization methods but any stochastic process. Basically, we relate the expected directions set of a stochastic process with the half-space of a conservative vector field, concepts defined along the text. After some reasonable conditions, it is possible to assure convergence when the expected direction resembles enough to some vector field. We translate two existent and useful convergence results into convergence of processes that resemble to particular conservative vector fields. This geometric point of view could make it easier to identify Lyapunov functions for new stochastic processes which we would like to prove its convergence ; This work is partially supported by the projects Crowd4SDG and Humane-AI-net, which have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements No. 872944 and No. 952026, respectively. This work is also partially supported by the project CI-SUSTAIN funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2019-104156GB-I00). ; Peer reviewed

With the advent of social networks and the rise of mobile technologies, users have become ubiquitous sensors capable of monitoring various real-world events in a crowd-sourced manner. Location-based social networks have proven to be faster than traditional media channels in reporting and geo-locating breaking news, i.e. Osama Bin Laden's death was first confirmed on Twitter even before the announcement from the communication department at the White House. However, the deluge of user-generated data on these networks requires intelligent systems capable of identifying and characterizing such events in a comprehensive manner. The data mining community coined the term, event detection , to refer to the task of uncovering emerging patterns in data streams . Nonetheless, most data mining techniques do not reproduce the underlying data generation process, hampering to self-adapt in fast-changing scenarios. Because of this, we propose a probabilistic machine learning approach to event detection which explicitly models the data generation process and enables reasoning about the discovered events. With the aim to set forth the differences between both approaches, we present two techniques for the problem of event detection in Twitter : a data mining technique called Tweet-SCAN and a machine learning technique called Warble. We assess and compare both techniques in a dataset of tweets geo-located in the city of Barcelona during its annual festivities. Last but not least, we present the algorithmic changes and data processing frameworks to scale up the proposed techniques to big data workloads. ; This work is partially supported by Obra Social "la Caixa", by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under contract (TIN2015-65316), by the Severo Ochoa Program (SEV2015-0493), by SGR programs of the Catalan Government (2014-SGR-1051, 2014-SGR-118), Collectiveware (TIN2015-66863-C2-1-R) and BSC/UPC NVIDIA GPU Center of Excellence.We would also like to thank the reviewers for their constructive feedback. ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (author's final draft)

With the advent of social networks and the rise of mobile technologies, users have become ubiquitous sensors capable of monitoring various real-world events in a crowd-sourced manner. Location-based social networks have proven to be faster than traditional media channels in reporting and geo-locating breaking news, i.e. Osama Bin Laden's death was first confirmed on Twitter even before the announcement from the communication department at the White House. However, the deluge of user-generated data on these networks requires intelligent systems capable of identifying and characterizing such events in a comprehensive manner. The data mining community coined the term, event detection , to refer to the task of uncovering emerging patterns in data streams . Nonetheless, most data mining techniques do not reproduce the underlying data generation process, hampering to self-adapt in fast-changing scenarios. Because of this, we propose a probabilistic machine learning approach to event detection which explicitly models the data generation process and enables reasoning about the discovered events. With the aim to set forth the differences between both approaches, we present two techniques for the problem of event detection in Twitter : a data mining technique called Tweet-SCAN and a machine learning technique called Warble. We assess and compare both techniques in a dataset of tweets geo-located in the city of Barcelona during its annual festivities. Last but not least, we present the algorithmic changes and data processing frameworks to scale up the proposed techniques to big data workloads. ; This work is partially supported by Obra Social "la Caixa", by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under contract (TIN2015-65316), by the Severo Ochoa Program (SEV2015-0493), by SGR programs of the Catalan Government (2014-SGR-1051, 2014-SGR-118), Collectiveware (TIN2015-66863-C2-1-R) and BSC/UPC NVIDIA GPU Center of Excellence.We would also like to thank the reviewers for their constructive feedback. ; Peer Reviewed ...

The geographical identification of content in Social Networks have enabled to bridge the gap between online social platforms and the physical world. Although vast amounts of data in such networks are due to breaking news or global occurrences, local events witnessed by users in situ are also present in these streams and of great importance for many city entities. Nowadays, unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as Tweet-SCAN, are able to retrospectively detect these local events from tweets. However, these approaches have limited abilities to reason about unseen observations in a principled way due to the lack of a proper probabilistic foundation. Probabilistic models have also been proposed for the task, but their event identification capabilities are far from those of Tweet-SCAN. In this paper, we identify two key factors which, when combined, boost the accuracy of such models. As a first key factor, we notice that the large amount of meaningless social data requires explicitly modeling non-event observations.Therefore, we propose to incorporate a background model that captures spatio-temporal fluctuations of non-event tweets. As a second key factor, we observe that the shortness of tweets hampers the application of traditional topic models. Thus, we integrate event detection and topic modeling, assigning topic proportions to events instead of assigning them to individual tweets. As a result, we propose Warble, a new probabilistic model and learning scheme for retrospective event detection that incorporates these two key factors. We evaluate Warble in a data set of tweets located in Barcelona during its festivities. The empirical results show that the model outperforms other state-of-the-art techniques in detecting various types of events while relying on a principled probabilistic framework that enables to reason under uncertainty. ; This work is partially supported by Obra Social "la Caixa", by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under contract (TIN2015-65316), by the Severo Ochoa Program (SEV2015-0493), by SGR programs of the Catalan Government (2014-SGR-1051, 2014-SGR-118), Collectiveware (TIN2015-66863-C2-1-R) and BSC/UPC NVIDIA GPU Center of Excellence.We would also like to thank the reviewers for their constructive feedback. ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (author's final draft)

Twitter has become one of the most popular Location-based Social Networks (LBSNs) that bridges physical and virtual worlds. Tweets, 140-character-long messages, are aimed to give answer to the What's happening? question. Occurrences and events in the real life (such as political protests, music concerts, natural disasters or terrorist acts) are usually reported through geo-located tweets by users on site. Uncovering event-related tweets from the rest is a challenging problem that necessarily requires exploiting different tweet features. With that in mind, we propose Tweet-SCAN, a novel event discovery technique based on the popular density-based clustering algorithm called DBSCAN. Tweet-SCAN takes into account four main features from a tweet, namely content, time, location and user to group together event-related tweets. The proposed technique models textual content through a probabilistic topic model called Hierarchical Dirichlet Process and introduces Jensen–Shannon distance for the task of neighborhood identification in the textual dimension. As a matter of fact, we show Tweet-SCAN performance in two real data sets of geo-located tweets posted during Barcelona local festivities in 2014 and 2015, for which some of the events were identified by domain experts beforehand. Through these tagged data sets, we are able to assess Tweet-SCAN capabilities to discover events, justify using a textual component and highlight the effects of several parameters. ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (author's final draft)

Twitter has become one of the most popular Location-based Social Networks (LBSNs) that bridges physical and virtual worlds. Tweets, 140-character-long messages, are aimed to give answer to the What's happening? question. Occurrences and events in the real life (such as political protests, music concerts, natural disasters or terrorist acts) are usually reported through geo-located tweets by users on site. Uncovering event-related tweets from the rest is a challenging problem that necessarily requires exploiting different tweet features. With that in mind, we propose Tweet-SCAN, a novel event discovery technique based on the popular density-based clustering algorithm called DBSCAN. Tweet-SCAN takes into account four main features from a tweet, namely content, time, location and user to group together event-related tweets. The proposed technique models textual content through a probabilistic topic model called Hierarchical Dirichlet Process and introduces Jensen–Shannon distance for the task of neighborhood identification in the textual dimension. As a matter of fact, we show Tweet-SCAN performance in two real data sets of geo-located tweets posted during Barcelona local festivities in 2014 and 2015, for which some of the events were identified by domain experts beforehand. Through these tagged data sets, we are able to assess Tweet-SCAN capabilities to discover events, justify using a textual component and highlight the effects of several parameters. ; Peer Reviewed ; Postprint (author's final draft)