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THIS ANALYSIS DISCUSSES THE IMPLICATIONS OF SOME COGNITIVE AND ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS FOR THE EVALUATION AND AVOIDANCE OF FAILURES IN STRATEGIC WARNING. THREE ARGUMENTS ARE ADVANCED: THE POLICY CONTEXT MUST BE CONSIDERED IN ANY EFFORTS TO IMPROVE WARNING FORECASTS; CASE STUDIES SHOW BIAS; PLURALISTICS INTELLIGENCE MAKES SOLUTIONS DIFFICULT.

A country's culture influences its economic growth, which in turn influences its international position. Confucian heritage appears to be the common factor explaining the rapid economic growth of East Asian countries, including China's meteoric rise in recent years. Ironically, Confucianism has been criticized not too long ago for hindering progress in these countries. At the same time, Protestant countries, once the vanguards of economic development, have seen weak growth., These developed economies are undergoing a cultural transformation from an emphasis on materialist concerns to postmaterialist ones. What do these trends augur for their economic growth and international competitiveness, particularly in the context of ongoing power shifts between China and the United States?

It is widely believed that shifts in the balance of power between an established hegemon and a rising upstart can lead to war. To what extent does this proposition hold true for Sino-American relations today? Steve Chan examines a range of international relations theories and popular narratives that suggest an elevated risk of confrontation between the two powers. Probing the recent deterioration in Sino-American relations, he considers whether several factors that can raise or lower international tension apply to the current situation. Chan demonstrates that power shifts do not preordain violent outcomes - nor does their absence ensure peace. Criticizing overly mechanistic frameworks, he emphasizes that domestic politics, international political economy, and the choices of individual leaders are all crucial to understanding why wars happen. Chan demonstrates that claims of a "rising China" catching up to and even poised to overtake the United States are alarmist: American structural advantages will endure for some time to come. Contrary to prevailing narratives, China does not act like a revisionist power seeking to overturn the system, while the United States, far from defending the international order, has frequently undermined it. However, Chan cautions, Taiwan remains a flashpoint for a possible Sino-American conflict. Bringing together expertise in IR theory and keen political acumen, Rumbles of Thunder challenges conventional wisdom on the likelihood of war between the United States and China.

The Peloponnesian War (431-404 BCE) ostensibly arose because of the fear that a rising Athens would threaten Sparta's power in the Mediterranean. The idea of Thucydides' Trap warns that all rising powers threaten established powers. As China increases its power relative to the United States, the theory argues, the two nations are inevitably set on a collision course toward war. How enlightening is an analogy based on the ancient Greek world of 2,500 years ago for understanding contemporary international relations? How accurate is the depiction of the history of other large armed conflicts, such as the two world wars, as a challenge mounted by a rising power to displace an incumbent hegemon? Thucydides's Trap?: Historical Interpretation, Logic of Inquiry, and the Future of Sino-American Relations offers a critique of the claims of Thucydides's Trap and power-transition theory. It examines past instances of peaceful accommodation to uncover lessons that can ease the frictions in ongoing Sino-American relations.

Frontmatter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Balance of Power, Power Balance, and Balancing -- 3 Looking for Balancing -- 4 The Political Economy of Defense and Regime Strategy -- 5 Balance-of-Power Expectations Versus Credible Commitment -- 6 Growth, Trust, and Historical Comparisons -- 7 Preferences, Intentions, and Multilateralism -- 8 Conclusion -- References -- Index

"How are China's ongoing sovereignty disputes in the East and South China Seas likely to evolve? Are relations across the Taiwan Strait poised to enter a new period of relaxation or tension? How are economic interdependence, domestic public opinion, and the deterrence role played by the US likely to affect China's relations with its counterparts in these disputes? Although territorial disputes have been the leading cause for interstate wars in the past, China has settled most of its land borders with its neighbours. Its maritime boundaries, however, have remained contentious. This book examines China's conduct in these maritime disputes in order to analyse Beijing's foreign policy intentions in general. Rather than studying Chinese motives in isolation, Steve Chan uses recent theoretical and empirical insights from international relations research to analyse China's management of its maritime disputes"--

Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Table of Contents -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: Gauging Another State's Trustworthiness -- Chapter 3: A Weak Form of Trust Reflecting External Compulsion -- Chapter 4: A Semi-Strong Form of Trust Motivated by Reputational Considerations -- Chapter 5: A Strong Form of Trust Grounded in Appropriateness and Unthinkability -- Chapter 6: Conclusion -- Postscript -- Index -- Rapid Communications in Conflict and Security -- About the Author.

China's recent growth has called attention to the power-transition theory, which contends that the danger of a major war is the greatest when a rising dissatisfied challenger threatens to overtake a declining satisfied hegemon. Steve Chan questions this prevailing view by analyzing the extent of ongoing power shifts among the leading powers, exploring the portents for their future growth, and seeking indicators of their relative commitment to the existing international order. To better understand the strategic motivations of ascending and declining states, insights are drawn from prospect theo.