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Agricultural policy in the EU is facing further reform arising from the CAP Health Check in 2008, international agricultural markets are being affected by the emergence of bio fuel demands for grains and oilseeds, while an agricultural trade liberalising outcome from the WTO negotiations in Geneva remains a possibility. Farmers and policy makers in EU Member States are facing an increasingly volatile future. The importance of economic analysis of policy proposals has never been greater. This paper presents the results of Baseline projections for the main EU-27 agricultural commodity markets based on the AGMEMOD econometric models developed in projects financed by the European Commission.

Agricultural policy in the EU is facing further reform arising from the CAP Health Check in 2008, international agricultural markets are being affected by the emergence of bio fuel demands for grains and oilseeds, while an agricultural trade liberalising outcome from the WTO negotiations in Geneva remains a possibility. Farmers and policy makers in EU Member States are facing an increasingly volatile future. The importance of economic analysis of policy proposals has never been greater. This paper presents the results of Baseline projections for the main EU-27 agricultural commodity markets based on the AGMEMOD econometric models developed in projects financed by the European Commission.

Contrat ; B03421 ; Agricultural sector in the member states and EU : econmetric Modelling for projections and analysis of EU policies on agriculture, forestry and the environment [AG-MEMOD] Poster Diffusion du document : INRA Unité d'Economie et Sociologie rurales 4 Allée Adolphe Bobierre CS 61103 35011 Rennes cedex (FRA) ; Le projet AG-MEMOD réunit 24 pays partenaires avec l'objectif commun de réaliser un outil capable de simuler des scénarios de politique sur 30 marchés de produits agricoles, avec des résultats annuels à un horizon de 10 ans, pour l'Europe entière ainsi que pour chaque pays. Un outil informatique convivial et accessible a été développé pour combiner les modèles estimés économétriquement par chaque partenaire. Le modèle AG-MEMOD combiné est un système constitué des deux logiciels Excel et Gams. Il ne nécessite pas de modifications du code Gams pour fonctionner : L'implémentation des scénarios et l'accès aux résultats se fait dans l'environnement familier d'Excel. Le papier traite de la structuration de l'information dans le système et de la manière dont les équations sont encodées dans le langage Gams facilement interprétable.

Diffusion du document : INRA Unité d'Economie et Sociologie rurales rue Adolphe Bobierre CS 61103 35011 Rennes cedex (FRA) ; Setting the initial allocation of marketable emission permits. Journées Economie de l'environnement : L'efficacité des politiques publiques face à la gestion de l'environnement et des ressources renouvelables

Les auteurs présentent une approche originale de la mise en place d'un programme de contrôle de l'offre au sein de l'Union européenne. Ils adoptent les concepts de valeur de la théorie des jeux coopératifs au cas de la PAC. Ces valeurs permettent de calculer des indices de pouvoir au travers des jeux de vote virtuels. A l'aide de ces indices de pouvoir, on détermine des règles d'allocation non seulement entre États membres mais aussi entre régions à l'intérieur des États et, enfin, entre producteurs à l'intérieur des régions. Les auteurs proposent une application de cette modélisation à la réforme de l'OCM viti-vinicole.

Les auteurs présentent une approche originale de la mise en place d'un programme de contrôle de l'offre au sein de l'Union européenne. Ils adoptent les concepts de valeur de la théorie des jeux coopératifs au cas de la PAC. Ces valeurs permettent de calculer des indices de pouvoir au travers des jeux de vote virtuels. A l'aide de ces indices de pouvoir, on détermine des règles d'allocation non seulement entre États membres mais aussi entre régions à l'intérieur des États et, enfin, entre producteurs à l'intérieur des régions. Les auteurs proposent une application de cette modélisation à la réforme de l'OCM viti-vinicole.

Contrat ; B03421 ; Agricultural sector in the member states and EU : econmetric Modelling for projections and analysis of EU policies on agriculture, forestry and the environment [AG-MEMOD] ; Les auteurs présentent les résultats pour l'UE à 15 pays d'une simulation de la réforme dite "accord de Luxembourg" réalisée à l'aide du modèle Ag-Memod combiné. Ce modèle économétrique, dynamique, d'équilibre partiel et multi-produits est composé de modèles nationaux, liés entre eux par des prix endogènes pour produire des projections annuelles, à un horizon de dix ans, pour chaque pays et pour l'Union européenne en globalité. Dans le cadre du scénario de réforme des accords de Luxembourg, les paiements directs des secteurs des céréales et oléagineux, de la viande bovine et de la viande ovine sont totalement découplés. Les réductions programmées du prix d'intervention du beurre sont également considérées. Les impacts de la réforme sont mesurés relativement à une base de référence constituée d'une prolongation de la politique agricole de l'Agenda 2000.

Policy harmonized (PH) approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how "common" policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model's structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper's penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.

Policy harmonized (PH) approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how "common" policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model's structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper's penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.

While the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) until 2013 is clear, European Union (EU) budgetary pressures and the perceived unfairness of the distribution of CAP support across Member States has lead to uncertainty over the design of the CAP post 2013. One comprehensive reform option being considered is the implementation of an EU wide flat area payment (EUWFAP) system and a reduction of the total budget available for direct payments. It is hypothesised that the implementation of this policy proposal would lead to significant changes in the distribution of the EU budget and to the redistribution of agricultural production between the Member States, which could hinder the implementation of the proposal. This paper evaluates the rationality of the EUWFAP, based on the analysis of its budgetary and market impacts. Using the AGMEMOD 2020 combined model, the introduction of the EUWFAP in 2013 is compared with a baseline continuation of the current policy. Results suggest that there would be minor negative impacts on the agricultural production at the EU level, but that more substantial impact for some commodities, most notably beef, and could occur in the individual EU Member States. An important outcome of such a policy reform would be a substantial change in the budget allocation between Member States, which could help mitigate the budgetary tensions between the Member States.

While the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) until 2013 is clear, European Union (EU) budgetary pressures and the perceived unfairness of the distribution of CAP support across Member States has lead to uncertainty over the design of the CAP post 2013. One comprehensive reform option being considered is the implementation of an EU wide flat area payment (EUWFAP) system and a reduction of the total budget available for direct payments. It is hypothesised that the implementation of this policy proposal would lead to significant changes in the distribution of the EU budget and to the redistribution of agricultural production between the Member States, which could hinder the implementation of the proposal. This paper evaluates the rationality of the EUWFAP, based on the analysis of its budgetary and market impacts. Using the AGMEMOD 2020 combined model, the introduction of the EUWFAP in 2013 is compared with a baseline continuation of the current policy. Results suggest that there would be minor negative impacts on the agricultural production at the EU level, but that more substantial impact for some commodities, most notably beef, and could occur in the individual EU Member States. An important outcome of such a policy reform would be a substantial change in the budget allocation between Member States, which could help mitigate the budgetary tensions between the Member States.

This technical note provides the detailed projection results of the study "Modelling and Analysis of the European Milk and Dairy Market".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Consortium under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), in cooperation with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS). The report provides a quantitative assessment of possible implications of a dairy policy reform and other policy adjustments on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU-27, EU-15, EU-12, the individual Member States and their regional groupings using the AGMEMOD model.

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"