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The large literature on regional inequality in the People's Republic of China (PRC) is hampered by incomplete evidence on price dispersion across space, making it hard to distinguish real and nominal inequality. The two main methods used to calculate spatial deflators have been to price a national basket of goods and services across different regions in the country or else to estimate a food Engel curve and define the deflator as that needed for nominally similar households to have the same food budget shares in all regions. Neither approach is convincing with the data available. Moreover, a focus on tradable goods such as food may be misplaced because of the emerging literature on the rapid convergence of traded goods prices within the PRC that contrasts with earlier claims of fragmented internal markets. In a setting where traded goods prices converge rapidly, the main source of price dispersion across space should come from non-traded items, and especially from housing given the fixity of land. In this paper we use newly available data on dwelling sales in urban PRC to develop spatially-disaggregated indices of house prices which are then used as spatial deflators for both provinces and core urban districts. These new deflators complement existing approaches that have relied more on traded goods prices and are used to re-examine the evidence on the level of regional inequality. Around one-quarter of the apparent spatial inequality disappears once account is taken of cost-of-living differences.

The large literature on regional inequality in the People's Republic of China (PRC) is hampered by incomplete evidence on price dispersion across space, making it hard to distinguish real and nominal inequality. The two main methods used to calculate spatial deflators have been to price a national basket of goods and services across different regions in the country or else to estimate a food Engel curve and define the deflator as that needed for nominally similar households to have the same food budget shares in all regions. Neither approach is convincing with the data available. Moreover, a focus on tradable goods such as food may be misplaced because of the emerging literature on the rapid convergence of traded goods prices within the PRC that contrasts with earlier claims of fragmented internal markets. In a setting where traded goods prices converge rapidly, the main source of price dispersion across space should come from non-traded items, and especially from housing given the fixity of land. In this paper we use newly available data on dwelling sales in urban PRC to develop spatially-disaggregated indices of house prices which are then used as spatial deflators for both provinces and core urban districts. These new deflators complement existing approaches that have relied more on traded goods prices and are used to re-examine the evidence on the level of regional inequality. Around one-quarter of the apparent spatial inequality disappears once account is taken of cost-of-living differences.

AbstractWe study potential internal effects of China's Belt and Road Initiative. These effects may occur sooner than the international effects, since they face no delay from partner negotiations and from financing and security concerns. For a key part of the overland Silk Road Economic Belt, we identify 46 prefectural‐level units in a corridor from the China–Kazakh border to Xi'an that are likely to see increased investment and economic activity from Belt and Road. These units are smaller, more diverse, poorer, and less productive than are prefectural‐level units in the rest of China. The Belt and Road Initiative will disperse some economic activity to places that the market would not direct it, such as to this corridor. Given that these areas are less productive and are likely to have lower absorptive capacity, investments here will have an efficiency cost since they should yield more GDP if deployed elsewhere in China.