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AbstractWe assess the relationship between regime‐dependent volatility in S&P 500, economic policy uncertainty, the S&P 500 bull and bear sentiment spread (bb_sp), as well as the Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX over the period 2000–2018. Our findings from two‐covariate GARCH–MIDAS (GM) methodology, regime switching Markov Chain, and quantile regressions suggest that the association of realized volatility and sentiment varies across high‐ and low‐volatility regimes and depends on investors' sensitivity toward incidents of market uncertainties under these regimes. The findings suggest that these indicators may not be useful in volatility forecasting, especially under high‐volatility regimes.

We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in the gold and silver futures markets. While we find strong evidence of nonlinear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for contract-maturity effects, generally explain the nonlinearities in the data. We also make a case that employing seasonally adjusted price series is important to obtaining robust results via some of the existing tests for chaotic structure.

AbstractWe examine the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on equity markets for four emerging Latin American markets, namely, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We adopt an approach that examines this relationship in both a time and frequency domains. The co‐spectral analysis confirmed that most of the observable coherence between crude oil and equity returns occurred at relatively short frequencies. The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) results suggest that shocks to crude oil price directed all equity markets into negative territory, though they typically reversed course after approximately twenty‐four months. Although the decomposition of the prediction error variance showed that crude oil prices were weakly exogenous in the SVAR model, in most cases Brazil's equity market may have been responsible for the higher percentage of variations in the remaining indices. The nonlinear Granger causality tests reveal, with the exception of the Merval index, the equity markets under study were responsive to crude oil price shocks.