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Abstract
Mortality models are fundamental to quantify mortality/longevity risks and provide the basis of pricing and reserving. In this article, we consider a family of mortality jump models and propose a new generalized Lee–Carter model with asymmetric double exponential jumps. It is asymmetric in terms of both time periods of impact and frequency/severity profiles between adverse mortality jumps and longevity jumps. It is mathematically tractable and economically intuitive. It degenerates to a transitory exponential jump model when fitting the US mortality data and is the best fit compared with other jump models.

ABSTRACTUpdating production plans typically is achieved by rolling the planning horizon forward one period at a time, each time including the latest information in order to determine the best course of action to pursue in the present period. Theoretical planning‐horizon studies have identified the conditions by which the production decisions in the current and some specified number of future periods remain optimal given some set of future demands. Motivated by these findings, this study addresses the replanning frequency in a hierarchical production planning problem where no planning‐horizon theorems are available. In this problem the aggregate production plan and the master production schedule are linked by a rolling‐horizon practice. Empirical experimentation indicates that under certain cost and demand conditions the master production schedule need not be updated every period. If a schedule does not need to be updated for several periods, the schedule for these periods can be frozen to provide stability for planning components at lower levels in the bill of material of the products. The results of this study thus provide some reference for the determination of the frozen portion of the master production schedule.

This paper analyzes the extent to which the performances of local and national governments can shape local election outcomes. Specifically, we use various waves of survey data from Taiwan's Elections and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to explore whether a person's assessments of local and central government performances affect his/her vote for the incumbent party candidate. Our empirical findings partially verify the so-called "referendum theory" and can be summarized as follows: First, voters who hold a positive assessment of the performance of local government are more likely to vote for an incumbent who seeks reelection, but this is not necessarily the case for an incumbent party candidate in an open-seat contest. Second, Taiwan's local elections cannot be regarded as referenda on the central government because the central government approval rating does not consistently affect vote choices across different types/levels of local elections.

AbstractThis paper explores the linkage between electoral systems and candidate selection methods (CSMs) by analyzing two innovations of CSMs in Taiwan and Japan: polling primary and kobo, respectively. With an assumption that parties' CSMs reflect their strategies to win elections, this article offers the rationale behind why and how major parties in Taiwan and Japan adjusted their CSMs to meet the challenges posed by the transition of electoral rules in each country from single non-transferable vote (SNTV) systems to mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) systems. We argue that a party's choice of CSMs reflects its rationale for maximizing the prospects of winning under the given electoral rule, which counters the 'no-finding' conclusion in some previous large-N studies on the linkage between electoral systems and choices of CSMs. Additionally, our findings highlight the importance of institutional factors, such as electoral systems, in explaining CSM reforms in a comparative perspective.