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Working paper
In: NBER Working Paper No. w25222
SSRN
Working paper
In: FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2018-12
SSRN
Working paper
The Chinese economy has undergone three major phases: the 1978-97 period marked as the SOE-led economy, the 1998-2015 phase as the investment-driven economy, and the new normal economy since 2016. All three economies have been shaped by the government financial policies, defined as a set of credit policy, monetary policy, and regulatory policy. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of these financial policies throughout the three phases and provide the stylized facts to substantiate our analysis. The stylized facts differ qualitatively across different phases or economies. We argue that the impacts of China's financial policies work through transmission channels different from those in developed economies and that a regime switch from one economy to another was driven mainly by regime changes in financial policies.
BASE
In 2011, the publicly held debt-to-GDP ratio in the United States reached 68% and is expected to continue rising. Many proposals to curb the government deficit and the resulting debt are being discussed. In this paper, we use the standard neoclassical growth model to examine the future path of output, budget deficits, and debt in the U.S. economy under different tax policies. While this framework is relatively simple, it incorporates the general equilibrium effects of tax policy, which are often missing from the Congressional Budget Office projections. Our results show that debt-to-GNP ratios above 100% are likely to continue into the future and that even small labor supply elasticities have a significant impact on these projections. We also find that labor income tax rates higher than 40% are needed for the deficit-to-GNP ratio to return to its historical level in the long run. Such high tax rates, however, result in about 10% lower per capita GNP and large welfare costs at the steady state compared to the historical tax rates.
BASE
In: FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2014-022A
SSRN
Working paper
In: Journal of monetary economics, Band 60, Heft 6, S. 683-703
SSRN
Working paper
In: The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Band 116, Heft 4, S. 982-1011
SSRN
In: American economic review, Band 108, Heft 12, S. 3891-3936
ISSN: 1944-7981
We study how monetary policy in China influences banks' shadow banking activities. We develop and estimate the endogenously switching monetary policy rule that is based on institutional facts and at the same time tractable in the spirit of Taylor (1993). This development, along with two newly constructed micro banking datasets, enables us to establish the following empirical evidence. Contractionary monetary policy during 2009–2015 caused shadow banking loans to rise rapidly, offsetting the expected decline of traditional bank loans and hampering the effectiveness of monetary policy on total bank credit. We advance a theoretical explanation of our empirical findings. (JEL E32, E52, G21, O16, O23, P24, P34)
In: NBER Working Paper No. w23377
SSRN
We argue that China's rising shadow banking was inextricably linked to potential balancesheet risks in the banking system. We substantiate this argument with three didactic findings: (1) commercial banks in general were prone to engage in channeling risky entrusted loans; (2) shadow banking through entrusted lending masked small banks' exposure to balance-sheet risks; and (3) two well-intended regulations and institutional asymmetry between large and small banks combined to give small banks an incentive to exploit regulatory arbitrage by bringing off-balance-sheet risks into the balance sheet. We reveal these findings by constructing a comprehensive transaction-based loan dataset, providing robust empirical evidence, and developing a theoretical framework to explain the linkages between monetary policy, shadow banking, and traditional banking (the banking system) in China.
BASE
In: NBER Working Paper No. w21890
SSRN
In: FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2016-1
SSRN
Working paper
In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Band 56, Heft 8, S. 1135-1147