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DIRECTOR'S FOREWORD. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. PART 1 ALTERNATIVE LIVELIHOODS FOR THE FISHING COMMUNITY. Introduction. Methodology for the alternative livelihood analysis. Interview results. Results of alternative livelihoods analysis. Discussion and concluding remarks. References. Appendix. PART 2 ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE FISHING INDUSTRY AND SOCIETY. Introduction. Simulation modeling. General results. Economic costs to the Hong Kong Sar Government. Overall costs and benefits to society. Sensitivity analysis. Model assumptions and uncertainties. Discussion and concluding remarks. References. Appendix. ; Fisheries Centre (FC) ; Unreviewed ; Faculty ; Researcher ; Graduate

Front Cover -- Predicting Future Oceans -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- List of contributors -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Predicting future oceans -- 1 Predicting the future ocean: pathways to global ocean sustainability -- 1.1 The coupled human-natural marine system -- 1.2 Confidence and uncertainty in "predicting the future ocean" -- 1.3 Adaptation to the changing ocean -- 1.4 The linkages between the ocean, sustainable development, and policies -- References -- 2 Changing Ocean Systems -- 2 Changing ocean systems: A short synthesis -- 2.1 Burning fossil fuels and ocean acidification -- 2.2 Warming oceans, melting ice, and changing ocean circulation -- 2.3 Changing ocean productivity baselines -- 2.4 Ocean deoxygenation -- 2.5 Changing coastlines and ocean pollution -- 2.6 Prospects for understanding and predicting changing oceans -- References -- 3 Drivers of fisheries production in complex socioecological systems -- References -- 4 Changing seasonality of the sea: past, present, and future -- 4.1 Past: a brief history of phenology research in marine ecosystems1 -- 4.2 Present: phenology as a "fingerprint" of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems -- 4.3 What may the future hold? -- References -- 5 Extreme climatic events in the ocean -- 5.1 What drives marine heatwaves? -- 5.2 The warming oceans -- 5.3 Increase in marine heatwaves -- 5.4 Future changes -- 5.5 Impacts -- 5.6 Outlook -- Acknowledgment -- References -- 6 Seafood methylmercury in a changing ocean -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 The steps that lead to methylmercury accumulation in fish -- 6.3 Fish methylmercury in a changing ocean -- 6.4 Conclusion -- References -- 7 Building confidence in projections of future ocean capacity -- 7.1 Ocean capacity and ecosystem services -- 7.2 Climate change impacts on ocean capacity.

Governance of South China Sea (SCS) fisheries remains weak despite acknowledgement of their widespread overexploitation for the past few decades. This review incorporates unreported fish catches to provide an improved baseline of the current status and societal contribution of SCS marine fisheries, so that the socio-economic and ecological consequences of continued fisheries unsustainability may be understood. Potential fisheries contribution to food and livelihoods include 11–17 million t in fisheries catch and USD 12–22 × 109 in fisheries landed value annually in the 2000s, and close to 3 million jobs. However, overfishing has resulted in biodiversity and habitat loss, and altered ecosystem trophic structures to a 'fished down' state. The present situation reiterates the urgency for fisheries policies that simultaneously address multiple political, social, economic, and biological dimensions at regional, national, and local scales. Importantly, improved cooperation between SCS nations, particularly in overcoming territorial disputes, is essential for effective regional fisheries governance.

As coastal fisheries around the world have collapsed, industrial fishing has spread seaward and deeper in pursuit of the last economically attractive concentrations of fishable biomass. For a seafood-hungry world depending on the oceans' ecosystem services, it is crucial to know whether deep-sea fisheries can be sustainable. The deep sea is by far the largest but least productive part of the oceans, although in very limited places fish biomass can be very high. Most deep-sea fishes have life histories giving them far less population resilience/productivity than shallow-water fishes, and could be fished sustainably only at very low catch rates if population resilience were the sole consideration. But like old-growth trees and great whales, their biomass makes them tempting targets while their low productivity creates strong economic incentive to liquidate their populations rather than exploiting them sustainably (Clark's Law). Many deep-sea fisheries use bottom trawls, which often have high impacts on nontarget fishes (e.g., sharks) and invertebrates (e.g., corals), and can often proceed only because they receive massive government subsidies. The combination of very low target population productivity, nonselective fishing gear, economics that favor population liquidation and a very weak regulatory regime makes deep-sea fisheries unsustainable with very few exceptions. Rather, deep-sea fisheries more closely resemble mining operations that serially eliminate fishable populations and move on. Instead of mining fish from the least-suitable places on Earth, an ecologically and economically preferable strategy would be rebuilding and sustainably fishing resilient populations in the most suitable places, namely shallower and more productive marine ecosystems that are closer to markets.

The Paris Agreement target of limiting global surface warming to 1.5–2∘C compared to pre-industrial levels by 2100 will still heavily impact the ocean. While ambitious mitigation and adaptation are both needed, the ocean provides major opportunities for action to reduce climate change globally and its impacts on vital ecosystems and ecosystem services. A comprehensive and systematic assessment of 13 global- and local-scale, ocean-based measures was performed to help steer the development and implementation of technologies and actions toward a sustainable outcome. We show that (1) all measures have tradeoffs and multiple criteria must be used for a comprehensive assessment of their potential, (2) greatest benefit is derived by combining global and local solutions, some of which could be implemented or scaled-up immediately, (3) some measures are too uncertain to be recommended yet, (4) political consistency must be achieved through effective cross-scale governance mechanisms, (5) scientific effort must focus on effectiveness, co-benefits, disbenefits, and costs of poorly tested as well as new and emerging measures.

The Paris Agreement target of limiting global surface warming to 1.5–2∘C compared to pre-industrial levels by 2100 will still heavily impact the ocean. While ambitious mitigation and adaptation are both needed, the ocean provides major opportunities for action to reduce climate change globally and its impacts on vital ecosystems and ecosystem services. A comprehensive and systematic assessment of 13 global- and local-scale, ocean-based measures was performed to help steer the development and implementation of technologies and actions toward a sustainable outcome. We show that (1) all measures have tradeoffs and multiple criteria must be used for a comprehensive assessment of their potential, (2) greatest benefit is derived by combining global and local solutions, some of which could be implemented or scaled-up immediately, (3) some measures are too uncertain to be recommended yet, (4) political consistency must be achieved through effective cross-scale governance mechanisms, (5) scientific effort must focus on effectiveness, co-benefits, disbenefits, and costs of poorly tested as well as new and emerging measures.

The Paris Agreement target of limiting global surface warming to 1.5-2°C compared to pre-industrial levels by 2100 will still heavily impact the ocean. While ambitious mitigation and adaptation are both needed, the ocean provides major opportunities for action to reduce climate change globally and its impacts on vital ecosystems and ecosystem services. A comprehensive and systematic assessment of 13 global- and local-scale, ocean-based measures was performed to help steer the development and implementation of technologies and actions toward a sustainable outcome. We show that (1) all measures have tradeoffs and multiple criteria must be used for a comprehensive assessment of their potential, (2) greatest benefit is derived by combining global and local solutions, some of which could be implemented or scaled-up immediately, (3) some measures are too uncertain to be recommended yet, (4) political consistency must be achieved through effective cross-scale governance mechanisms, (5) scientific effort must focus on effectiveness, co-benefits, disbenefits, and costs of poorly tested as well as new and emerging measures. ; We thank M. Khamla (CNRS) and S. Ghani (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology) for help with artwork. This is a product of "The Oceans Solutions Initiative", an expert group supported by the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, the Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Veolia Foundation, and the French Facility for Global Environment. AKM thanks the French Government for its support under the "Investissements d'avenir" programme, managed by the French National Research Agency (ANR-10-LABX-14-01). RB was supported by the RESCCUE project funded by the French Development Agency and the French Global Environment Facility (AFD CZZ 2205 01 W and FFEM CZZ 1667 01 H). WWLC acknowledges funding support from the Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program. CMD participation was partly supported by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) through baseline funding. JH was partly supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 642018 (GREEN-WIN project) and by the grant SEASCAPE from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) as part of the Special Priority Program (SPP)-1889 "Regional Sea Level Change and Society" (SeaLevel). EM was supported by the Nature Conservancy and the International Climate Initiative (IKI) funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety. FM was partly supported by the US NSF (DEB-1212124 and OCE-1736830) and JJM by the Netherlands Earth System Science Center. The contents in this manuscript are solely the opinions of the authors and do not constitute a statement of policy, decision, or position on behalf of the Pacific Community

Humanity is on a deeply unsustainable trajectory. We are exceeding planetary boundaries and unlikely to meet many international sustainable development goals and global environmental targets. Until recently, there was no broadly accepted framework of interventions that could ignite the transformations needed to achieve these desired targets and goals. As a component of the IPBES Global Assessment, we conducted an iterative expert deliberation process with an extensive review of scenarios and pathways to sustainability, including the broader literature on indirect drivers, social change and sustainability transformation. We asked, what are the most important elements of pathways to sustainability? Applying a social–ecological systems lens, we identified eight priority points for intervention (leverage points) and five overarching strategic actions and priority interventions (levers), which appear to be key to societal transformation. The eight leverage points are: (1) Visions of a good life, (2) Total consumption and waste, (3) Latent values of responsibility, (4) Inequalities, (5) Justice and inclusion in conservation, (6) Externalities from trade and other telecouplings, (7) Responsible technology, innovation and investment, and (8) Education and knowledge generation and sharing. The five intertwined levers can be applied across the eight leverage points and more broadly. These include: (A) Incentives and capacity building, (B) Coordination across sectors and jurisdictions, (C) Pre-emptive action, (D) Adaptive decision-making and (E) Environmental law and implementation. The levers and leverage points are all non-substitutable, and each enables others, likely leading to synergistic benefits. Transformative change towards sustainable pathways requires more than a simple scaling-up of sustainability initiatives—it entails addressing these levers and leverage points to change the fabric of legal, political, economic and other social systems. These levers and leverage points build upon those approved within the Global Assessment's Summary for Policymakers, with the aim of enabling leaders in government, business, civil society and academia to spark transformative changes towards a more just and sustainable world. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. ; Fil: Chan, Kai M. A. University of British Columbia; Canadá ; Fil: Boyd, David R. University of British Columbia; Canadá ; Fil: Gould, Rachelle. University of Vermont; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Jetzkowitz, Jens. Staatliches Museum fur Naturkunde Stuttgart; Alemania ; Fil: Liu, Jianguo. Michigan State University; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Muraca, Bárbara. 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