Suchergebnisse

In applying the rational expectations hypothesis to generate expectations in an econometric model it is assumed that (1) the model itself is capable of generating reasonable forecasts of all required expectations variables included in the model, and that (2) the economic agents whose behavior is being modeled act as if they form their psychological expectations as conditional mathematical expectations generated by the model. Both assumptions can be invalid, as demonstrated by the historical data on Hong Kong stock prices and by the successful application of the adaptive expectations hypothesis to explain panel data of prices of individual stocks and aggregate time series data on stock price indices of the United States and of Hong Kong.

Background: Mobile health (mHealth) apps have the potential to increase smoking cessation, but little research has been conducted with Aboriginal communities in Australia. Objective: We conducted a pilot study to assess the feasibility and acceptability and explore the effectiveness of a novel mHealth app to assist Aboriginal people to quit smoking. Methods: A pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) and process evaluation comprising usage analytics data and in-depth interviews was conducted. Current Aboriginal smokers (>16 years old), who were willing to make a quit attempt in the next month, were recruited from Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services and a government telephone coaching service. The intervention was a multifaceted Android or iOS app comprising a personalized profile and quit plan, text and in-app motivational messages, and a challenge feature allowing users to compete with others. The comparator was usual cessation support services. Outcome data collection and analysis were conducted blinded to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was self-reported continuous smoking abstinence verified by carbon monoxide breath testing at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included point prevalence of abstinence and use of smoking cessation therapies and services. Results: A total of 49 participants were recruited. Competing service delivery priorities, the lack of resources for research, and lack of support for randomization to a control group were the major recruitment barriers. At baseline, 23/49 (47%) of participants had tried to quit in recent weeks. At 6-month follow-up, only 1 participant (intervention arm) was abstinent. The process evaluation highlighted low to moderate app usage (3-10 new users per month and 4-8 returning users per month), an average of 2.9 sessions per user per month and 6.3 min per session. Key themes from interviews with intervention participants (n=15) included the following: (1) the powerful influence of prevailing social norms around acceptability of smoking; (2) high usage of mobile devices for phone, text, and social media but very low use of other smartphone apps; (3) the role of family and social group support in supporting quit attempts; and (4) low awareness and utilization of smoking cessation support services. Despite the broad acceptability of the app, participants also recommended technical improvements to improve functionality, greater customization of text messages, integration with existing social media platforms, and gamification features. Conclusions: Smoking cessation apps need to be integrated with commonly used functions of mobile phones and draw on social networks to support their use. Although they have the potential to increase utilization of cessation support services and treatments, more research is needed to identify optimal implementation models. Robust evaluation is critical to determine their impact; however, an RCT design may not be feasible in this setting. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616001550493; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=371792 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/76TiV7HA6).

Abstract

Aim
Investigate changes in alcohol use and related harm using the first multisite, controlled, longitudinal study of Managed Alcohol Programs (MAPs). MAPs provide regular doses of alcohol, accommodation, social supports and healthcare to unstably housed people with alcohol dependence.


Methods
A multisite, quasi-experimental, longitudinal study was conducted in day centres, shelters and residential programs for unstably housed people. There were 59 MAP participants from six Canadian cities and 116 local controls. Self-reported alcohol consumption and harms were assessed at 0-2, 6 and 12 months. Liver function test results were accessed for MAP participants.


Results
Both groups had similar reductions in mean drinks per day (MAP: -8.11; controls: -8.54 controls, P < 0.001) and days drinking per month (MAP: -2.51 days, P < 0.05; control: -4.81 days, P = 0.0001) over 6–-12 months. Both reduced non-beverage alcohol consumption. MAP participants reported significantly fewer harms at both 0-2 and 6 months than controls. MAP participants had similar total consumption to controls, but spread out over more days (25.41 versus 19.64 days per month, P = 0.001). After leaving a MAP, participants' liver status deteriorated, with increases in both aspartate transaminase and bilirubin levels. MAP sites with effective policies on outside drinking drank less and had fewer harms.


Conclusion
MAP participants drank less hazardously than controls, especially with effective management of non-MAP drinking. Reductions in alcohol use and harms occurred for both groups, although MAP participants reported fewer harms at 0-6 months. Departing an MAP was associated with deterioration in liver status. Although providing stable housing, MAPs did not worsen health or increase alcohol use.

Background: The Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases comprises the majority of the world's public research funding agencies. It is focussed on implementation research to tackle the burden of chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries and amongst vulnerable populations in high-income countries. In its inaugural research call, 15 projects were funded, focussing on lowering blood pressure-related disease burden. In this study, we describe a reflexive mapping exercise to identify the behaviour change strategies undertaken in each of these projects. Methods: Using the Behaviour Change Wheel framework, each team rated the capability, opportunity and motivation of the various actors who were integral to each project (e.g. community members, non-physician health workers and doctors in projects focussed on service delivery). Teams then mapped the interventions they were implementing and determined the principal policy categories in which those interventions were operating. Guidance was provided on the use of Behaviour Change Wheel to support consistency in responses across teams. Ratings were iteratively discussed and refined at several group meetings. Results: There was marked variation in the perceived capabilities, opportunities and motivation of the various actors who were being targeted for behaviour change strategies. Despite this variation, there was a high degree of synergy in interventions functions with most teams utilising complex interventions involving education, training, enablement, environmental restructuring and persuasion oriented strategies. Similar policy categories were also targeted across teams particularly in the areas of guidelines, communication/marketing and service provision with few teams focussing on fiscal measures, regulation and legislation. Conclusions: The large variation in preparedness to change behaviour amongst the principal actors across these projects suggests that the interventions themselves will be variably taken up, despite the similarity in approaches taken. The findings highlight the importance of contextual factors in driving success and failure of research programmes. Forthcoming outcome and process evaluations from each project will build on this exploratory work and provide a greater understanding of factors that might influence scale-up of intervention strategies.