Determinants of economic growth: will data tell?
In: Working paper series 852
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In: Working paper series 852
In: Working paper series No. 623
In: CESifo Working Paper No. 9006
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According to Gibrat's law for cities, population shocks have permanent effects on city size. I examine this implication by analysing the persistence of observed population shocks: German military casualties in WWI by municipality of birth. I find a strong negative effect of military casualties on the male population of municipalities just after WWI. This effect persists to 1933 and, outside of the most agricultural municipalities, beyond. The effect on female population and the number of households is similar to the effect on male population by 1950, when women in the generation that fought WWI started reaching their life expectancy.
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I examine whether transitory events can tip the scales against authoritarian regimes and lead to persistent democratization. I think of situations where this is a possibility as democratic tipping points. The transitory events I focus on are rainfall shocks in the most agricultural countries in the world. I show that while these shocks only affect agricultural output contemporaneously, they have persistent effects on political institutions. Authoritarian regimes experiencing negative rainfall shocks are more likely to be democratic three, five, and ten years later.
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In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12625
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In: CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6866
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In: American economic review, Volume 94, Issue 3, p. 785-795
ISSN: 1944-7981
In: Carnegie Rochester Conference series on public policy: a bi-annual conference proceedings, Volume 52, p. 257-262
ISSN: 0167-2231
I examine whether transitory events can tip the scales against authoritarian regimes and lead to persistent democratization. I think of situations where this is a possibility as democratic tipping points. The transitory events I focus on are rainfall shocks in the most agricultural countries in the world. I show that while these shocks only affect agricultural output contemporaneously, they have persistent effects on political institutions. Authoritarian regimes experiencing negative rainfall shocks are more likely to be democratic three, five, and ten years later.
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In: Discussion paper series 2599
In: International macroeconomics, labour economics and public policy