Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time
In: Discussion paper
In: Series 1, Studies of the Economic Research Centre 32/2004
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In: Discussion paper
In: Series 1, Studies of the Economic Research Centre 32/2004
World Affairs Online
In: Research working papers 02,05
In: Research working paper 00,05
In: Economic commentary, S. 1-6
ISSN: 0428-1276
Some inflation-forecasting models based on the Phillips curve suggest that there should have been more disinflation since the Great Recession than has shown up in core PCE or core CPI data. One way researchers have found to make the disinflation disappear is to remove the long-term unemployed from the overall unemployment measure that is typically used in the models. This analysis shows that the disinflation arises in such models because of the way they account for the long-term trend in inflation. Under a different measurement of trend inflation, which historical forecast accuracy suggests should be preferable, the recent path of inflation can be reasonably well explained by an inflation-forecasting model that incorporates the overall unemployment rate.
In: Economic commentary, S. 1-6
ISSN: 0428-1276
This Commentary describes how some of the Cleveland Fed's macroeconomic forecasting models have been modified to use a Taylor rule for monetary policy. After briefly describing the Taylor rule implementation, the article shows that the Taylor rule included in one of our models successfully captures the course of monetary policy in the most recent episode of policy tightening.
In: Journal of labor economics: JOLE, Band 16, Heft 1, S. 202-229
ISSN: 1537-5307
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 30, Heft 3, S. 426-448
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Economic commentary, S. 1-6
ISSN: 0428-1276
Should the unanticipated slowing of inflation that has occurred since early 2012 raise doubts about the reliability of inflation forecasts? Our analysis indicates that inflation fell well within a normal range of uncertainty, and most of the deviation from the original forecast was a response to other economic developments.
In: Economic commentary, S. 1-6
ISSN: 0428-1276
Sharp rises in energy and other commodity prices have recently ignited concerns about inflation. Will these price increases spill over to other prices more generally? We study the typical responses of different price shocks and assess whether the recent behavior of producer and consumer prices is consistent with historical norms. Our analysis shows that the behavior of various producer and consumer prices since late 2009 has generally matched up with historical patterns. Overall, our findings suggest that effects of the recent energy and commodity price shocks on core consumer prices will be modest going forward.
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 35, Heft 7, S. 981-999
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: Bundesbank Series 1 Discussion Paper No. 2004,32
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Working paper
In: NBER Working Paper No. t0326
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