Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Recurrent extreme landscape fire episodes associated with
drought events in Indonesia pose severe environmental, societal and economic
threats. The ability to predict severe fire episodes months in advance would
enable relevant agencies and communities to more effectively initiate fire-preventative measures and mitigate fire impacts. While dynamic seasonal
climate predictions are increasingly skilful at predicting fire-favourable
conditions months in advance in Indonesia, there is little evidence that
such information is widely used yet by decision makers. In this study, we move beyond forecasting fire risk based on drought
predictions at seasonal timescales and (i) develop a probabilistic early
fire warning system for Indonesia (ProbFire) based on a multilayer perceptron
model using ECMWF SEAS5 (fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system) dynamic climate forecasts together with forest
cover, peatland extent and active-fire datasets that can be operated on a
standard computer; (ii) benchmark the performance of this new system for the
2002–2019 period; and (iii) evaluate the potential economic benefit of such integrated forecasts for Indonesia. ProbFire's event probability predictions outperformed climatology-only based
fire predictions at 2- to 4-month lead times in south Kalimantan, south
Sumatra and south Papua. In central Sumatra, an improvement was observed
only at a 0-month lead time, while in west Kalimantan seasonal predictions did
not offer any additional benefit over climatology-only-based predictions. We
(i) find that seasonal climate forecasts coupled with the fire probability
prediction model confer substantial benefits to a wide range of stakeholders
involved in fire management in Indonesia and (ii) provide a blueprint for
future operational fire warning systems that integrate climate predictions
with non-climate features.

The effects of fire and its use on European peatlands and heaths are the focus of considerable research and debate due to the important services these ecosystems provide and the threats they face from climatic and land-use change. Whilst in some countries ecologists are actively promoting the restoration of historic fire management regimes, in the UK the debate has become increasingly acrimonious. Positions seem entrenched between continuing the intensive form of management associated with grouse moors or ceasing burning and seeking to eliminate fire altogether. In a recent paper we argued that participants' positions appeared influenced by political and philosophical beliefs associated with, for example, private land-ownership, hunting, and associated conservation conflicts such as raptor persecution. We also suggested there was inadequate engagement with key concepts and evidence from fire and peatland ecology. We argued that management debates should aim to be inclusive and evidence-based, and to understand the benefits and costs of different fire regimes. In a strongly-worded critique of our paper, George Monbiot (author of "Feral: Searching for Enchantment on the Frontiers of Rewilding") suggested we: i) framed our research question too narrowly; ii) made the implicit assumption that moorlands were the "right" ecosystem for the UK countryside; and iii) failed to adequately engage with arguments put forward for cessation of managed burning. Here we critically examine each of these issues to provide further insight into how adaptive, participatory land-management could develop. We argue that a productive debate must acknowledge that complex trade-offs are inevitable during ecological management. Choosing the "right" ecosystem is difficult, especially in a landscape with a long history of human influence, and the answer depends on the values and ecosystem services we prioritize. Natural resource management decisions will be improved if based on an understanding and valuation of the multiple scales and levels ...

Fire has been used for centuries to generate and manage some of the UK's cultural landscapes. Despite its complex role in the ecology of UK peatlands and moorlands, there has been a trend of simplifying the narrative around burning to present it as an only ecologically damaging practice. That fire modifies peatland characteristics at a range of scales is clearly understood. Whether these changes are perceived as positive or negative depends upon how trade-offs are made between ecosystem services and the spatial and temporal scales of concern. Here we explore the complex interactions and trade-offs in peatland fire management, evaluating the benefits and costs of managed fire as they are currently understood. We highlight the need for (i) distinguishing between the impacts of fires occurring with differing severity and frequency, and (ii) improved characterization of ecosystem health that incorporates the response and recovery of peatlands to fire. We also explore how recent research has been contextualized within both scientific publications and the wider media and how this can influence non-specialist perceptions. We emphasize the need for an informed, unbiased debate on fire as an ecological management tool that is separated from other aspects of moorland management and from political and economic opinions.

The effects of fire and its use on European peatlands and heaths are the focus of considerable research and debate due to the important services these ecosystems provide and the threats they face from climatic and land-use change. Whilst in some countries ecologists are actively promoting the restoration of historic fire management regimes, in the UK the debate has become increasingly acrimonious. Positions seem entrenched between continuing the intensive form of management associated with grouse moors or ceasing burning and seeking to eliminate fire altogether. In a recent paper we argued that participants' positions appeared influenced by political and philosophical beliefs associated with, for example, private land-ownership, hunting, and associated conservation conflicts such as raptor persecution. We also suggested there was inadequate engagement with key concepts and evidence from fire and peatland ecology. We argued that management debates should aim to be inclusive and evidence-based, and to understand the benefits and costs of different fire regimes. In a strongly-worded critique of our paper, George Monbiot (author of "Feral: Searching for Enchantment on the Frontiers of Rewilding") suggested we: i) framed our research question too narrowly; ii) made the implicit assumption that moorlands were the "right" ecosystem for the UK countryside; and iii) failed to adequately engage with arguments put forward for cessation of managed burning. Here we critically examine each of these issues to provide further insight into how adaptive, participatory land-management could develop. We argue that a productive debate must acknowledge that complex trade-offs are inevitable during ecological management. Choosing the "right" ecosystem is difficult, especially in a landscape with a long history of human influence, and the answer depends on the values and ecosystem services we prioritize. Natural resource management decisions will be improved if based on an understanding and valuation of the multiple scales and levels of organization at which ecological diversity exists, the role of disturbance in controlling ecosystem composition and function, and the need for participatory action.