Suchergebnisse

El presente trabajo da cuenta de las principales lecciones que se han recogido en materia de política monetaria y financiera sobre la crisis actual, y traza un paralelo con la crisis colombiana de los noventa (guardadas las proporciones) y con las acciones que de ella se derivaron. Además propone algunas acciones que podrían adoptarse en materia de implementación de las políticas monetarias y financieras con el fin de reducir los riesgos asociados con el comportamiento del sistema financiero y de crédito, tendientes a buscar una economía más estable y con menores desbalances macroeconómicos en el largo plazo.

El presente trabajo da cuenta de las principales lecciones que se han recogido en materia de la política monetaria y financiera sobre la crisis actual y traza un paralelo con la crisis colombiana de los noventa (guardadas las proporciones) y con las acciones que de ella se derivaron. Además, propone algunas acciones que podrían adoptarse en materia de implementación de las políticas monetarias y financieras con el fin de reducir los riesgos asociados con el comportamiento del sistema financiero y de crédito, tendientes a buscar una economía más estable y con menores desbalances macroeconómicos en el largo plazo. ; The present work shows the main lessons that have been collected on monetary and financial policies from the current crisis, and draws a parallel with the Colombian crisis of the nineties (proportions kept) and the actions that were derived from it. It also proposes some measures that could be adopted in the implementation of mone¬tary and financial policies in order to reduce the risks associated with the behavior of the financial and credit system that tend towards finding a more stable economy and lower macroeconomic imbalances in the long term.

En el segundo trimestre de 2016 la inflación anual al consumidor y el promedio de las medidas de inflación básica siguieron aumentando y en junio se situaron en 8,6% y 6,5%, respectivamente (Gráfico A). Por su parte, las expectativas de inflación en julio continuaron por encima de la meta: las de los analistas a uno y dos años fueron, en su orden, 4,6% y 3,7%; las que resultan de la encuesta trimestral aplicada a distintos sectores económicos con horizonte a dos años se situaron en 5,4%, y las que se derivan de los papeles de deuda pública a dos, tres y cinco años están entre 4,0% y 4,5%. El comportamiento de los precios al consumidor se produjo en un contexto en el que la actividad económica continuó afectada por la caída de los términos de intercambio y el consecuente debilitamiento del ingreso nacional. Diversos indicadores sugieren que el crecimiento del producto en el segundo trimestre de 2016 será similar al registrado en el primero. El consumo crecería a menor ritmo, mientras que la caída de la inversión sería menor. Para todo 2016, el equipo técnico redujo la proyección más probable de crecimiento de 2,5% a 2,3%, dentro de un rango entre 1,5% y 3%. ; During the second quarter of 2016, annual consumer inflation and the average of core inflation indicators continued to rise, reaching 8.6% and 6.5% by June, respectively (Graph A). Meanwhile, inflation expectations in July were still above target; in fact, analysts predict 4.6% and 3.7% for one and two years ahead. Inflation expectations resulting from the quarterly survey applied to different economic sectors, within a two-year horizon, stood at 5.4%, while expectations derived from government debt bonds to two, three and five years are between 4.0% and 4.5%. This behavior of consumer prices occurred in a context where economic activity continued to be affected by the decline in terms of trade and the subsequent deterioration in national revenue. A number of indicators suggest that output growth for the second quarter of 2016 would be similar to that of the first quarter. Consumption growth would be slower, while the drop in investment could be less. For all of 2016, the technical staff reduced its forecast for most likely growth from 2.5% to 2.3%, within a range of 1.5% to 3.0%.

La inflación anual al consumidor disminuyó por segundo mes consecutivo desde el 8,97% alcanzado en julio, para situarse en 7,27% en septiembre de 2016. Esta desaceleración, mayor que la prevista, se explica principalmente por el menor aumento en los precios del grupo de alimentos y, en menor medida, por la moderación en los incrementos de los precios de bienes y servicios más impactados por la pasada depreciación nominal del peso. Lo anterior sugiere que los efectos de los fuertes choques transitorios de oferta que desviaron la inflación de la meta (El Niño y la depreciación nominal) se están empezando a diluir a una velocidad mayor que la esperada. El promedio de las medidas de inflación básica también decreció, pero a un ritmo más lento: de 6,61% en julio a 6,29% en septiembre. En el mismo período las expectativas de inflación han cedido, aunque las de 2017 aún superan la meta: la de los analistas a uno y dos años se sitúan en 4,23% y 3,65%, y las que se derivan de los papeles de deuda pública a dos, tres y cinco años se encuentran alrededor de 3,6%. ; Annual consumer price inflation dropped for the second consecutive month, from 8.97% in July to 7.27% in September 2016. The slowdown, which was greater than expected, is mostly due to a lower increase in food prices, and –to a lesser extent– to the moderation in price increases for the goods and services that were most affected by past nominal peso depreciation. This suggests that the effects of the strong temporary supply shocks that diverted inflation from its target (El Niño weather and nominal depreciation) are beginning to fade faster than anticipated (Graph A). The average of core inflation measures also declined, although not as much, moving from 6.61% in July to 6.29% in September. Inflation expectations subsided during the same period, although they still exceed the target for 2017. Analysts' inflation forecasts for one and two years are at 4.23% and 3.65%, respectively, while expectations derived from government debt bonds to two, three, and five years are around 3.6%.

En marzo la inflación anual al consumidor fue 7,98% y el promedio de las cuatro medidas de inflación básica se situó en 6,29% (Gráfico A). El aumento de la inflación en el primer trimestre, superior al esperado, en gran medida se explica por el fuerte incremento en los precios de los alimentos, por la transmisión parcial de la devaluación del peso a los precios al consumidor y a los costos de las materias primas; y por la activación de mecanismos de indexación en varios rubros de la canasta familiar, como la educación, la salud y algunos servicios públicos. Las expectativas de inflación de los analistas, a uno y dos años, se sitúan en 4,5% y 3,8%, respectivamente, y las derivadas de los papeles de deuda pública a dos, tres y cinco años se encuentran entre 4,4% y 4,8%. Aunque la transmisión de la depreciación del peso a los precios al consumidor ha sido baja en lo corrido de este siglo, el nivel de la tasa de cambio es alto y puede seguir impactando con rezago las cotizaciones de bienes y servicios importados. De igual forma, se proyecta que la menor oferta de alimentos continúe hasta el segundo trimestre de 2016, fecha a partir de la cual debería normalizarse el clima. En este contexto, si bien ambos choques son de carácter transitorio, pueden seguir presionando al alza la inflación y las expectativas, y continuar activando mecanismos de indexación no deseados. ; In March, annual consumer inflation was 7.98% and the four measures of core inflation averaged 6.29% (Graph A). The rise in inflation during the first quarter, which was higher than expected, can be attributed to the sharp hike in food prices, the partial pass-through of nominal depreciation to consumer prices and raw material costs, and the activation of indexation mechanisms for certain items in the family basket of goods and services, such as education, health care and some public utilities. Analysts expect inflation at one and two years to reach 4.5% and 3.8% respectively, while inflation expectations estimated from government debt bonds at two, three and five years are between 4.4% and 4.8%. Although so far in this century the pass-through of peso depreciation to consumer prices has been limited, the exchange rate is high and could continue to have a lagged impact on prices for imported goods and services. Likewise, lower food supplies are expected up until the second quarter of 2016, when the weather is expected to return to normal. In this context, although both shocks are temporary, they still can exert upward pressures on inflation and its expectations, and continue to activate undesirable indexation mechanisms.

Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) is required by the Constitution to maintain the purchasing power of Colombia's currency in coordination with general economic policy1. In order to fulfill this mandate, the Central Bank of Colombia's Board of Directors (hereafter BDBR) has adopted a flexible inflation targeting scheme, by which monetary policy actions (MP) seek to lead inflation to a specific target and achieve maximum levels of sustainable output and employment. The flexibility of this scheme allows the BDBR to maintain an adequate balance between reaching its inflation target and smoothing output and employment fluctuations around their sustainable growth paths. The BDBR has set a 3.0% inflation target based on annual change in the consumer price index (CPI). In the short term, inflation may be affected by factors outside of monetary policy control, such as changes in food prices due to climate-related phenomena. To factor in this reality, the BDBR has also set a ±1 percentage point range outside its inflation target (i.e., 3.0 ± 1 pp). This range does not represent a monetary policy target, but rather reflects the fact that inflation can fluctuate around the target and will not always be equal to 3.0%. The main instrument of the BDBR to control inflation is the policy interest rate (overnight repo rate, or benchmark interest rate). Given that monetary policy actions take time to have their full effect on the economy and inflation2, the BDBR assesses the inflation forecast and inflation expectations vis-à-vis the inflation target, as well as the current situation and outlook of the economy, in order to determine their value. The BDBR meets once a month, producing monetary policy decisions in eight of its meetings (January, March, April, June, July, September, October, and December). In principle, no such decisions are made in the BDBR's four remaining meetings (February, May, August, and November)3. At the end of the meetings in which monetary policy decisions are produced, a press release is published and a press conference held by the Governor of the Central Bank and the Minister of Finance. The minutes of the meeting describing the positions that led the BDBR to its decision are published on the following business day. Additionally, the Monetary Policy Report (MPR)4, produced by the Central Bank's technical staff, is published in January, April, July, and October, together with the minutes. On the Wednesday of the week following the Board meeting, the Governor clarifies concerns about the minutes, and the Bank's Deputy Technical Governor presents the MPR. This dissemination scheme5 seeks to deliver relevant and up-to-date information to contribute to better decision-making by the agents of the economy. 1 Political Constitution of Colombia (1991), Article 373 and Decision C-481/99 of the Constitutional Court. 2 For further details, see M. Jalil and L. Mahadeva (2010). "Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Colombia", Universidad Externado de Colombia, Faculty of Finance, Government, and International Relations, ed. 1, vol. 1, no. 69, October. 3 A Board Member may request an extraordinary meeting at any time to make MP decisions. 4 Formerly known as the Inflation Report. 5 The current communication scheme was approved by the BDBR in its August 2019 meeting.

Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) is required by the Constitution to maintain the purchasing power of Colombia's currency in coordination with general economic policy1. In order to fulfill this mandate, the Central Bank of Colombia's Board of Directors (hereafter BDBR) has adopted a flexible inflation targeting scheme, by which monetary policy actions (MP) seek to lead inflation to a specific target and achieve maximum levels of sustainable output and employment. The flexibility of this scheme allows the BDBR to maintain an adequate balance between reaching its inflation target and smoothing output and employment fluctuations around their sustainable growth paths. The BDBR has set a 3.0% inflation target based on annual change in the consumer price index (CPI). In the short term, inflation may be affected by factors outside of monetary policy control, such as changes in food prices due to climate-related phenomena. To factor in this reality, the BDBR has also set a ±1 percentage point range outside its inflation target (i.e., 3.0 ± 1 pp). This range does not represent a monetary policy target, but rather reflects the fact that inflation can fluctuate around the target and will not always be equal to 3.0%. The main instrument of the BDBR to control inflation is the policy interest rate (overnight repo rate, or benchmark interest rate). Given that monetary policy actions take time to have their full effect on the economy and inflation2, the BDBR assesses the inflation forecast and inflation expectations vis-à-vis the inflation target, as well as the current situation and outlook of the economy, in order to determine their value. The BDBR meets once a month, producing monetary policy decisions in eight of its meetings (January, March, April, June, July, September, October, and December). In principle, no such decisions are made in the BDBR's four remaining meetings (February, May, August, and November)3. At the end of the meetings in which monetary policy decisions are produced, a press release is published and a press conference held by the Governor of the Central Bank and the Minister of Finance. The minutes of the meeting describing the positions that led the BDBR to its decision are published on the following business day. Additionally, the Monetary Policy Report (MPR)4, produced by the Central Bank's technical staff, is published in January, April, July, and October, together with the minutes. On the Wednesday of the week following the Board meeting, the Governor clarifies concerns about the minutes, and the Bank's Deputy Technical Governor presents the MPR. This dissemination scheme5 seeks to deliver relevant and up-to-date information to contribute to better decision-making by the agents of the economy. 1 Political Constitution of Colombia (1991), Article 373 and Decision C-481/99 of the Constitutional Court. 2 For further details, see M. Jalil and L. Mahadeva (2010). "Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Colombia", Universidad Externado de Colombia, Faculty of Finance, Government, and International Relations, ed. 1, vol. 1, no. 69, October. 3 A Board Member may request an extraordinary meeting at any time to make MP decisions. 4 Formerly known as the Inflation Report. 5 The current communication scheme was approved by the BDBR in its August 2019 meeting.

Las crisis financieras recientes han incrementado de manera significativa la complejidad de la política económica. Hoy día es necesario estar preparado para enfrentar huracanes financieros que surgen de lugares inesperados y que se expanden alrededor del mundo como reguero de pólvora. Para peor, estas crisis producen un profundo desconcierto entre inversores y analistas —incluyendo al propio Fondo Monetario Internacional—. La presente obra contiene un conjunto importante de artículos de alto calibre profesional que se enfocan sobre los nuevos desafíos que enfrenta la política económica en estas circunstancias. Los artículos estudian las características de los flujos de capitales, tanto en su totalidad como en su composición (capital de cartera, inversión directa, etc.) y su interrelación con el mercado de commodities (café y petróleo, en particular). Esto se complementa con un estudio cuidadoso de las vulnerabilidades financieras y un detallado análisis del papel de todos estos factores en la economía colombiana. El libro se convierte en un verdadero pionero en esta literatura y debería transformarse en referencia obligada para todos aquellos que quieran entender los nuevos fenómenos y desarrollar herramientas para prevenir sus peores consecuencias o paliar sus costos en economías emergentes, como la colombiana.