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Writing in a Changing World: The Difficult Relationship with Reality
In: Luso-Brazilian review: LBR, Band 50, Heft 2, S. 21-30
ISSN: 1548-9957
Changes in the incidence of invasive disease due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis during the COVID-19 pandemic in 26 countries and territories in the Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance Initiative: a prospective analysis of surveillance data
Background Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis, which are typically transmitted via respiratory droplets, are leading causes of invasive diseases, including bacteraemic pneumonia and meningitis, and of secondary infections subsequent to post-viral respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of invasive disease due to these pathogens during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods In this prospective analysis of surveillance data, laboratories in 26 countries and territories across six continents submitted data on cases of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis from Jan 1, 2018, to May, 31, 2020, as part of the Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Initiative. Numbers of weekly cases in 2020 were compared with corresponding data for 2018 and 2019. Data for invasive disease due to Streptococcus agalactiae, a non-respiratory pathogen, were collected from nine laboratories for comparison. The stringency of COVID-19 containment measures was quantified using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Changes in population movements were assessed using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. Interrupted time-series modelling quantified changes in the incidence of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in 2020 relative to when containment measures were imposed. Findings 27 laboratories from 26 countries and territories submitted data to the IRIS Initiative for S pneumoniae (62 434 total cases), 24 laboratories from 24 countries submitted data for H influenzae (7796 total cases), and 21 laboratories from 21 countries submitted data for N meningitidis (5877 total cases). All countries and territories had experienced a significant and sustained reduction in invasive diseases due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in early 2020 (Jan 1 to May 31, 2020), coinciding with the introduction of COVID-19 containment measures in each country. By ...
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Characterization of the K2-38 planetary system: Unraveling one of the densest planets known to date
Context. An accurate characterization of the known exoplanet population is key to understanding the origin and evolution of planetary systems. Determining true planetary masses through the radial velocity (RV) method is expected to experience a great improvement thanks to the availability of ultra-stable echelle spectrographs. Aims. We took advantage of the extreme precision of the new-generation echelle spectrograph ESPRESSO to characterize the transiting planetary system orbiting the G2V star K2-38 located at 194 pc from the Sun with V 11.4. This system is particularly interesting because it could contain the densest planet detected to date. Methods. We carried out a photometric analysis of the available K2 photometric light curve of this star to measure the radius of its two known planets, K2-38b and K2-38c, with Pb = 4.01593 ± 0.00050 d and Pc = 10.56103 ± 0.00090 d, respectively. Using 43 ESPRESSO high-precision RV measurements taken over the course of 8 months along with the 14 previously published HIRES RV measurements, we modeled the orbits of the two planets through a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, significantly improving their mass measurements. Results. Using ESPRESSO spectra, we derived the stellar parameters, Teff = 5731 ± 66, log g = 4.38 ± 0.11 dex, and [Fe/H] = 0.26 ± 0.05 dex, and thus the mass and radius of K2-38, Ma = 1.03-0.02+0.04 MaS and Ra = 1.06-0.06+0.09 RaS. We determine new values for the planetary properties of both planets. We characterize K2-38b as a super-Earth with RP = 1.54 ± 0.14 RaS and Mp = 7.3-1.0+1.1 MaS, and K2-38c as a sub-Neptune with RP = 2.29 ± 0.26 RaS and Mp = 8.3-1.3+1.3 MaS. Combining the radius and mass measurements, we derived a mean density of ρp = 11.0-2.8+4.1 g cm-3 for K2-38b and ρp = 3.8-1.1+1.8 g cm-3 for K2-38c, confirming K2-38b as one of the densest planets known to date. Conclusions. The best description for the composition of K2-38b comes from an iron-rich Mercury-like model, while K2-38c is better described by a rocky-model with H2 envelope. The maximum collision stripping boundary shows how giant impacts could be the cause for the high density of K2-38b. The irradiation received by each planet places them on opposite sides of the radius valley. We find evidence of a long-period signal in the RV time-series whose origin could be linked to a 0.25-3 MJ planet or stellar activity. ; With funding from the Spanish government through the "María de Maeztu Unit of Excellence" accreditation (MDM-2017-0737)
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Revisiting Proxima with ESPRESSO
Context. The discovery of Proxima b marked one of the most important milestones in exoplanetary science in recent years. Yet the limited precision of the available radial velocity data and the difficulty in modelling the stellar activity calls for a confirmation of the Earth-mass planet. Aims. We aim to confirm the presence of Proxima b using independent measurements obtained with the new ESPRESSO spectrograph, and refine the planetary parameters taking advantage of its improved precision. Methods. We analysed 63 spectroscopic ESPRESSO observations of Proxima (Gl 551) taken during 2019. We obtained radial velocity measurements with a typical radial velocity photon noise of 26 cm s-1. We combined these data with archival spectroscopic observations and newly obtained photometric measurements to model the stellar activity signals and disentangle them from planetary signals in the radial velocity (RV) data. We ran a joint Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis on the time series of the RV and full width half maximum of the cross-correlation function to model the planetary and stellar signals present in the data, applying Gaussian process regression to deal with the stellar activity signals. Results. We confirm the presence of Proxima b independently in the ESPRESSO data and in the combined ESPRESSO+ HARPS+UVES dataset. The ESPRESSO data on its own shows Proxima b at a period of 11.218 ± 0.029 days, with a minimum mass of 1.29 ± 0.13 M? . In the combined dataset we measure a period of 11.18427 ± 0.00070 days with a minimum mass of 1.173 ± 0.086 M? . We get a clear measurement of the stellar rotation period (87 ± 12 d) and its induced RV signal, but no evidence of stellar activity as a potential cause for the 11.2 days signal. We find some evidence for the presence of a second short-period signal, at 5.15 days with a semi-amplitude of only 40 cm s-1. If caused by a planetary companion, it would correspond to a minimum mass of 0.29 ± 0.08 M? . We find that forthe case of Proxima, the full width half maximum of the cross-correlation function can be used as a proxy for the brightness changes and that its gradient with time can be used to successfully detrend the RV data from part of the influence of stellar activity. The activity-induced RV signal in the ESPRESSO data shows a trend in amplitude towards redder wavelengths. Velocities measured using the red end of the spectrograph are less affected by activity, suggesting that the stellar activity is spot dominated. This could be used to create differential RVs that are activity dominated and can be used to disentangle activity-induced and planetary-induced signals. The data collected excludes the presence of extra companions with masses above 0.6 M? at periods shorter than 50 days. ; With funding from the Spanish government through the "María de Maeztu Unit of Excellence" accreditation (MDM-2017-0737)
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A precise architecture characterization of the π Mensae planetary system
Context. The bright star π Men was chosen as the first target for a radial velocity follow-up to test the performance of ESPRESSO, the new high-resolution spectrograph at the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope. The star hosts a multi-planet system (a transiting 4 M· planet at ∼0.07 au and a sub-stellar companion on a ∼2100-day eccentric orbit), which is particularly suitable for a precise multi-technique characterization. Aims. With the new ESPRESSO observations, which cover a time span of 200 days, we aim to improve the precision and accuracy of the planet parameters and search for additional low-mass companions. We also take advantage of the new photometric transits of π Men c observed by TESS over a time span that overlaps with that of the ESPRESSO follow-up campaign. Methods. We analysed the enlarged spectroscopic and photometric datasets and compared the results to those in the literature. We further characterized the system by means of absolute astrometry with HIPPARCOS and Gaia. We used the high-resolution spectra of ESPRESSO for an independent determination of the stellar fundamental parameters. Results. We present a precise characterization of the planetary system around π Men. The ESPRESSO radial velocities alone (37 nightly binned data with typical uncertainty of 10 cm s-1) allow for a precise retrieval of the Doppler signal induced by π Men c. The residuals show a root mean square of 1.2 m s-1, which is half that of the HARPS data; based on the residuals, we put limits on the presence of additional low-mass planets (e.g. we can exclude companions with a minimum mass less than ∼2 M· within the orbit of π Men c). We improve the ephemeris of π Men c using 18 additional TESS transits, and, in combination with the astrometric measurements, we determine the inclination of the orbital plane of π Men b with high precision (ib =45.8-1.1+1.4 deg). This leads to the precise measurement of its absolute mass mb =14.1-0.4+0.5 MJup, indicating that π Men b can be classified as a brown dwarf. Conclusions. The π Men system represents a nice example of the extreme precision radial velocities that can be obtained with ESPRESSO for bright targets. Our determination of the 3D architecture of the π Men planetary system and the high relative misalignment of the planetary orbital planes put constraints on and challenge the theories of the formation and dynamical evolution of planetary systems. The accurate measurement of the mass of π Men b contributes to make the brown dwarf desert a bit greener. ; With funding from the Spanish government through the "María de Maeztu Unit of Excellence" accreditation (MDM-2017-0737)
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Changes in the incidence of invasive disease due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis during the COVID-19 pandemic in 26 countries and territories in the Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance Initiative: a prospective analysis of surveillance data
BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis, which are typically transmitted via respiratory droplets, are leading causes of invasive diseases, including bacteraemic pneumonia and meningitis, and of secondary infections subsequent to post-viral respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of invasive disease due to these pathogens during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In this prospective analysis of surveillance data, laboratories in 26 countries and territories across six continents submitted data on cases of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis from Jan 1, 2018, to May, 31, 2020, as part of the Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Initiative. Numbers of weekly cases in 2020 were compared with corresponding data for 2018 and 2019. Data for invasive disease due to Streptococcus agalactiae, a non-respiratory pathogen, were collected from nine laboratories for comparison. The stringency of COVID-19 containment measures was quantified using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Changes in population movements were assessed using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. Interrupted time-series modelling quantified changes in the incidence of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in 2020 relative to when containment measures were imposed. FINDINGS: 27 laboratories from 26 countries and territories submitted data to the IRIS Initiative for S pneumoniae (62 837 total cases), 24 laboratories from 24 countries submitted data for H influenzae (7796 total cases), and 21 laboratories from 21 countries submitted data for N meningitidis (5877 total cases). All countries and territories had experienced a significant and sustained reduction in invasive diseases due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in early 2020 (Jan 1 to May 31, 2020), coinciding with the introduction of COVID-19 containment measures in each country. By contrast, no significant changes in the incidence of invasive S agalactiae infections were observed. Similar trends were observed across most countries and territories despite differing stringency in COVID-19 control policies. The incidence of reported S pneumoniae infections decreased by 68% at 4 weeks (incidence rate ratio 0·32 [95% CI 0·27-0·37]) and 82% at 8 weeks (0·18 [0·14-0·23]) following the week in which significant changes in population movements were recorded. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of COVID-19 containment policies and public information campaigns likely reduced transmission of S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis, leading to a significant reduction in life-threatening invasive diseases in many countries worldwide. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (UK), Robert Koch Institute (Germany), Federal Ministry of Health (Germany), Pfizer, Merck, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (Ireland), SpID-Net project (Ireland), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (European Union), Horizon 2020 (European Commission), Ministry of Health (Poland), National Programme of Antibiotic Protection (Poland), Ministry of Science and Higher Education (Poland), Agencia de Salut Pública de Catalunya (Spain), Sant Joan de Deu Foundation (Spain), Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (Sweden), Swedish Research Council (Sweden), Region Stockholm (Sweden), Federal Office of Public Health of Switzerland (Switzerland), and French Public Health Agency (France).
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