Suchergebnisse

This paper compares three scenarios of energy demand in the European Union until 2010 and analyses their effects on carbon emissions as well as their impacts on the precursor emissions for acidification and ground-level ozone. The analysis links the results of energy model PRIMES with the integrated environmental assessment model RAINS. Important synergies between climate change policies and policies to control regional air pollution have been identified. Mitigation of acidification and ozone according to the current EU strategy will be easier and cheaper if the Kyoto targets for the reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are to be met. In case when the Kyoto target needs to be achieved by individual EU member countries without trading in CO2 emission rights, the costs of controlling the pollutants contributing to acidification and ground-level ozone can be up to 10% lower than for the baseline scenario which does not assume any climate change policies. Although lower, the effects are also important if trading in carbon emission rights is allowed. These cost savings compensate up to 20% of higher costs of energy supplies in the EU and associated with them welfare losses caused by the necessity to meet the carbon constraint. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

This paper presents the first consistent inventory of emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2), for the countries co-operating in the Central European Initiative (CEI): Austria, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Slovenia. The inventory is based on national and regional statistics as well as on information from collaborating institutions. National data has been verified and converted into a common format, consistent with the database used by the European Environmental Agency and the European Community ("the CORINAIR" system). The inventory describes emissions in the year 1988, before the restructuring process began in the socialist economies. Data has been collected on the national level, for administrational units and for large point sources. The database on point sources contains specific information on 400 large plants in the region (e.g., capacity, commissioning year, fuel use, production, etc.).

This paper presents the first consistent inventory of emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2), for the countries co-operating in the Central European Initiative (CEI): Austria, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Slovenia. The inventory is based on national and regional statistics as well as on information from collaborating institutions. National data has been verified and converted into a common format, consistent with the database used by the European Environmental Agency and the European Community ("the CORINAIR" system). The inventory describes emissions in the year 1988, before the restructuring process began in the socialist economies. Data has been collected on the national level, for administrational units and for large point sources. The database on point sources contains specific information on 400 large plants in the region (e.g., capacity, commissioning year, fuel use, production, etc.).

In the framework of the European Network of Excellence ACCENT changes in near-surface and total tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone from year 2000 to 2030 have been calculated for the Southeast and East Asian regions using the chemical transport model Oslo CTM-2. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors for the year 2000 case are taken from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Regarding year 2030 emissions, three different scenarios are compared: 1) IIASA 'current legislation' (CLE), where current air quality legislation around the world is implemented; 2) IIASA 'maximum feasible reduction' (MFR), in which all currently available technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions; and 3) the IPCC-SRES A2 scnario, which was used as a high emission estimate in the last IPCC assessment report. While increases in NO2and ozone are calculated when using the CLE scenario, reductions are seen for the MFR scenario. In the SRS A2 case, increases in NO2 are largest, locally leading to ozone reductions at the surface resulting from titration effects. The model calculations suggest that air quality problems will be severely aggravated over Southeast and East Asia if current legislation is not attained.

In the framework of the European Network of Excellence ACCENT changes in near-surface and total tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone from year 2000 to 2030 have been calculated for the Southeast and East Asian regions using the chemical transport model Oslo CTM-2. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors for the year 2000 case are taken from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Regarding year 2030 emissions, three different scenarios are compared: 1) IIASA 'current legislation' (CLE), where current air quality legislation around the world is implemented; 2) IIASA 'maximum feasible reduction' (MFR), in which all currently available technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions; and 3) the IPCC-SRES A2 scnario, which was used as a high emission estimate in the last IPCC assessment report. While increases in NO2and ozone are calculated when using the CLE scenario, reductions are seen for the MFR scenario. In the SRS A2 case, increases in NO2 are largest, locally leading to ozone reductions at the surface resulting from titration effects. The model calculations suggest that air quality problems will be severely aggravated over Southeast and East Asia if current legislation is not attained.

This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM2.5) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM2.5 concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM2.5 concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios.

This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM2.5) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM2.5 concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM2.5 concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios.

International audience ; To explore the relationship between tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing with changing emissions, we compiled two sets of global scenarios for the emissions of the ozone precursors methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) up to the year 2030 and implemented them in two global Chemistry Transport Models. The "Current Legislation" (CLE) scenario reflects the current perspectives of individual countries on future economic development and takes the anticipated effects of presently decided emission control legislation in the individual countries into account. In addition, we developed a "Maximum technically Feasible Reduction" (MFR) scenario that outlines the scope for emission reductions offered by full implementation of the presently available emission control technologies, while maintaining the projected levels of anthropogenic activities. Whereas the resulting projections of methane emissions lie within the range suggested by other greenhouse gas projections, the recent pollution control legislation of many Asian countries, requiring introduction of catalytic converters for vehicles, leads to significantly lower growth in emissions of the air pollutants NO x , NMVOC and CO than was suggested by the widely used and more pessimistic IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000), which made Business-as-Usual assumptions regarding emission control technology. With the TM3 and STOCHEM models we performed several long-term integrations (1990-2030) to assess global, hemispheric and regional changes in CH 4 , CO, hydroxyl radicals, ozone and the radiative climate forcings resulting from these two emission scenarios. Both models reproduce broadly the observed trends in CO, and CH 4 concentrations from 1990 to 2002. For the "current legislation" case, both models indicate an increase of the annual average ozone levels in the Northern ...

International audience ; To explore the relationship between tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing with changing emissions, we compiled two sets of global scenarios for the emissions of the ozone precursors methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) up to the year 2030 and implemented them in two global Chemistry Transport Models. The "Current Legislation" (CLE) scenario reflects the current perspectives of individual countries on future economic development and takes the anticipated effects of presently decided emission control legislation in the individual countries into account. In addition, we developed a "Maximum technically Feasible Reduction" (MFR) scenario that outlines the scope for emission reductions offered by full implementation of the presently available emission control technologies, while maintaining the projected levels of anthropogenic activities. Whereas the resulting projections of methane emissions lie within the range suggested by other greenhouse gas projections, the recent pollution control legislation of many Asian countries, requiring introduction of catalytic converters for vehicles, leads to significantly lower growth in emissions of the air pollutants NO x , NMVOC and CO than was suggested by the widely used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). With the TM3 and STOCHEM models we performed several long-term integrations (1990?2030) to assess global, hemispheric and regional changes in CH 4 , CO, hydroxyl radicals, ozone and the radiative climate forcings resulting from these two emission scenarios. Both models reproduce realistically the observed trends in background ozone, CO, and CH 4 concentrations from 1990 to 2002. For the "current legislation" case, both models indicate an increase of the annual average ozone levels in the Northern hemisphere by 5 ppbv, and up to 15 ppbv over the Indian sub-continent, comparing ...

Paper discusses integrated assessment methodology of air pollution and greenhouse gases mitigation. RAINS/GAINS model developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is described. Its use in policy-relevant analysis is discussed with particular focus on studies for the development of policies of the European Union and under the UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). Importance of interactions and synergies between air pollution and greenhouse gases policies is stressed. Integrated assessment has proven to be an important tool for preparation of air pollution control legislation in Europe. Although most prominent applications of integrated assessment referred to international policies, recently these methods have been applied in several national studies for in-depth analyses at sub-national regional level. It is advisable to further disseminate applications of the methodology and software tools for regional assessment.

Paper discusses integrated assessment methodology of air pollution and greenhouse gases mitigation. RAINS/GAINS model developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is described. Its use in policy-relevant analysis is discussed with particular focus on studies for the development of policies of the European Union and under the UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). Importance of interactions and synergies between air pollution and greenhouse gases policies is stressed. Integrated assessment has proven to be an important tool for preparation of air pollution control legislation in Europe. Although most prominent applications of integrated assessment referred to international policies, recently these methods have been applied in several national studies for in-depth analyses at sub-national regional level. It is advisable to further disseminate applications of the methodology and software tools for regional assessment.

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the impact of key factors on future emissions.

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the impact of key factors on future emissions.

This study explores the impacts of alternative emission control interventions for international shipping on the European Seas on relevant air pollutant emissions, examines their consequence on ambient air quality in Europe and the neighbouring regions, and explores the resulting improvements of human health. It estimates the costs of the various policy interventions, and compares them with monetized benefits on human health and other impacts. It is found that further controls of SO₂ emissions, e.g., through SO₂ emission control areas, could deliver rather fast benefits, and avoid by 2030 up to 4000 cases of premature deaths annually, and 8000 in 2050. In the longer run, by 2050, application of Tier III NOx standards could double the health benefits. Even when using the lower (most conservative) health valuation, all reduction measures examined in this report emerged as cost-effective, with monetized benefits exceeding emission control costs typically by a factor of 6 in 2030 and by a factor of 12 in 2050. Designation of the Mediterranean Sea as an Emission Control Area could by 2030 cut emissions of SO2 and NOx from international shipping by 80 and 20 percent, respectively, compared to current legislation. These additional emission reductions could avoid 4,100 cases of premature deaths in 2030 and more than 10,000 annual premature deaths in 2050. Even with the most conservative assumptions for health valuation, monetized benefits are on average 4.4 times higher than the costs in 2030 and 7.5 times higher in 2050.

This study explores the impacts of alternative emission control interventions for international shipping on the European Seas on relevant air pollutant emissions, examines their consequence on ambient air quality in Europe and the neighbouring regions, and explores the resulting improvements of human health. It estimates the costs of the various policy interventions, and compares them with monetized benefits on human health and other impacts. It is found that further controls of SO₂ emissions, e.g., through SO₂ emission control areas, could deliver rather fast benefits, and avoid by 2030 up to 4000 cases of premature deaths annually, and 8000 in 2050. In the longer run, by 2050, application of Tier III NOx standards could double the health benefits. Even when using the lower (most conservative) health valuation, all reduction measures examined in this report emerged as cost-effective, with monetized benefits exceeding emission control costs typically by a factor of 6 in 2030 and by a factor of 12 in 2050. Designation of the Mediterranean Sea as an Emission Control Area could by 2030 cut emissions of SO2 and NOx from international shipping by 80 and 20 percent, respectively, compared to current legislation. These additional emission reductions could avoid 4,100 cases of premature deaths in 2030 and more than 10,000 annual premature deaths in 2050. Even with the most conservative assumptions for health valuation, monetized benefits are on average 4.4 times higher than the costs in 2030 and 7.5 times higher in 2050.