Search results

Abstract
We provide field evidence that individuals engage in motivated optimism in the face of impending risk. Congruent with a dynamic anticipatory utility model, we demonstrate that belief distortions are time- and stake-dependent. Our study leverages variation in the time span between the survey and the externally imposed date when workers are required to return to their workplaces during the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that as the work return date approaches, individuals become relatively more optimistic about the increased infection risk associated with going back to the workplace, and about how severely their health may be impacted if they get infected. Belief distortions are larger among those facing potential health complications conditional on infection. Our results are informative about when and for whom interventions will be most effective.

We validate survey measures of social capital with a new behavioral data set that examines whether citizens report a lost wallet to its owner. Using data from more than 17,000 lost wallets across 40 countries, we find that survey measures of social capital - especially questions concerning generalized trust or generalized morality - are strongly and significantly correlated with country-level differences in wallet reporting rates. A second finding is that lost wallet reporting rates predict unique variation in the outputs of social capital, such as economic development and government effectiveness, not captured by existing measures. ; Revised version, November 2020

Countercyclical risk aversion can explain major puzzles such as the high volatility of asset prices. Evidence for its existence is, however, scarce because of the host of factors that simultaneously change during financial cycles. We circumvent these problems by priming financial professionals with either a boom or a bust scenario. Subjects primed with a financial bust were substantially more fearful and risk averse than those primed with a boom, suggesting that fear may play an important role in countercyclical risk aversion. The mechanism described here is relevant for theory and may explain self-reinforcing processes that amplify market dynamics. (JEL E32, E44, G01, G11, G12)