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BACKGROUND: There has been little research on the impact of the 2014-2015 West African Ebola crisis on people with disabilities. This paper outlines the way in which the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in Liberia in 2015 highlighted existing inequalities and exclusion of people with disabilities and their households. METHODS: The results presented here are part of a larger ESRC/DFID-funded mixed methods research project in Liberia (2014-2017) which included a quantitative household survey undertaken in five counties, complemented by qualitative focus group discussions and interviews with people with disabilities and other key stakeholders. Uniquely, this research gathered information about people with disabilities' experience of the EVD outbreak, as well as additional socioeconomic and inclusion data, that compared their experience with non-disabled community members. RESULTS: Reflections by people with disabilities themselves show knowledge, preparation, and responses to the EVD epidemic was often markedly different among people with disabilities due to limited resources, lack of inclusion by many mainstream public health and medical interventions and pre-existing discrimination, marginalisation and exclusion. Interviews with other key stakeholder revealed a lack of awareness of disability issues or sufficient training to include this population systematically in both Ebola response activities and general health services. Key findings include the need to understand and mitigate direct and indirect health consequences of unequal responses to the epidemic, as well as the limited capacity of healthcare and social services to respond to people with disabilities. CONCLUSION: There are lessons to be learned from Ebola outbreak around inclusion of people with disabilities, relevant to the current COVID-19 pandemic. Now is the time to undertake measures to ensure that people with disabilities do not continue to be marginalised and excluded during global public health emergencies. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The ...

BACKGROUND: Case fatality rates for childhood pneumonia in Nigeria remain high. There is a clear need for improved case management of pneumonia, through the sustainable implementation of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) diagnostic and treatment algorithms. We explored barriers and opportunities for improved case management of childhood pneumonia in Lagos and Jigawa states, Nigeria. METHODS: A mixed-method analysis was conducted to assess the current health system capacity to deliver quality care. This was done through audits of 16 facilities in Jigawa and 14 facilities in Lagos, questionnaires (n = 164) and 13 focus group discussions with providers. Field observations provided context for data analysis and triangulation. RESULTS: There were more private providers in Lagos (4/8 secondary facilities) and more government providers in Jigawa (4/8 primary, 3/3 secondary, and 1/1 tertiary facilities). Oxygen and pulse oximeters were available in two of three in Jigawa and six of eight in Lagos of the sampled secondary care facilities. None of the eight primary facilities surveyed in Jigawa had oxygen or pulse oximetry available while in Lagos two of three primary facilities had oxygen and one of three had pulse oximeters. Other IMCI and emergency equipment were also lacking including respiratory rate timers, particularly in Jigawa state. Health care providers scored poorly on knowledge of IMCI, though previous IMCI training was associated with better knowledge. Key enabling factors in delivering pediatric care highlighted by health care providers included accountability procedures and feedback loops, the provision of free medication for children, and philanthropic acts. Common barriers to provide care included the burden of out-of-pocket payments, challenges in effective communication with caregivers, delayed presentation, and lack of clear diagnosis, and case management guidelines. CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need to improve how the prevention and treatment of pediatric pneumonia is directed ...

The nutritional status of both women and men before conception has profound implications for the growth, development, and long-term health of their offspring. Evidence of the effectiveness of preconception interventions for improving outcomes for mothers and babies is scarce. However, given the large potential health return, and relatively low costs and risk of harm, research into potential interventions is warranted. We identified three promising strategies for intervention that are likely to be scalable and have positive effects on a range of health outcomes: supplementation and fortification; cash transfers and incentives; and behaviour change interventions. On the basis of these strategies, we suggest a model specifying pathways to effect. Pathways are incorporated into a life-course framework using individual motivation and receptiveness at different preconception action phases, to guide design and targeting of preconception interventions. Interventions for individuals not planning immediate pregnancy take advantage of settings and implementation platforms outside the maternal and child health arena, since this group is unlikely to be engaged with maternal health services. Interventions to improve women's nutritional status and health behaviours at all preconception action phases should consider social and environmental determinants, to avoid exacerbating health and gender inequalities, and be underpinned by a social movement that touches the whole population. We propose a dual strategy that targets specific groups actively planning a pregnancy, while improving the health of the population more broadly. Modern marketing techniques could be used to promote a social movement based on an emotional and symbolic connection between improved preconception maternal health and nutrition, and offspring health. We suggest that speedy and scalable benefits to public health might be achieved through strategic engagement with the private sector. Political theory supports the development of an advocacy coalition of groups interested in preconception health, to harness the political will and leadership necessary to turn high-level policy into effective coordinated action.

Background Countdown to 2015 (Countdown) supported countries to produce case studies that examine how and why progress was made toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5. Analysing how health-financing data explains improvements in RMNCH outcomes was one of the components to the case studies. Methods This paper presents a descriptive analysis on health financing from six Countdown case studies (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Pakistan, Peru, and Tanzania), supplemented by additional data from global databases and country reports on macroeconomic, health financing, demographic, and RMNCH outcome data as needed. It also examines the effect of other contextual factors presented in the case studies to help interpret health-financing data. Results Dramatic increases in health funding occurred since 2000, where the MDG agenda encouraged countries and donors to invest more resources on health. Most low-income countries relied on external support to increase health spending, with an average 20–64 % of total health spending from 2000 onwards. Middle-income countries relied more on government and household spending. RMNCH funding also increased since 2000, with an average increase of 119 % (2005–2010) for RMNH expenditures (2005–2010) and 165 % for CH expenditures (2005–2011). Progress was made, especially achieving MDG 4, even with low per capita spending; ranging from US$16 to US$44 per child under 5 years among low-income countries. Improvements in distal factors were noted during the time frame of the analysis, including rapid economic growth in Ethiopia, Peru, and Tanzania and improvements in female literacy as documented in Malawi, which are also likely to have contributed to MDG progress and achievements. Conclusions Increases in health and RMNCH funding accompanied improvements in outcomes, though low-income countries are still very reliant on external financing, and out-of-pocket comprising a growing share of funds in middle-income settings. Enhancements in tracking RMNCH expenditures across countries are still needed to better understand whether domestic and global health financing initiatives lead to improved outcomes as RMNCH continues to be a priority under the Sustainable Development Goals.

The nutritional status of women and men before conception has profound implications for the growth, development and long-term health of their offspring. Evidence of the effectiveness of preconception interventions in improving outcomes for mothers or babies is scarce, though given the large potential health return, relatively low costs and risk of harm, intervention is still warranted. We identify three promising strategies for intervention that are likely to be scalable and to have positive effects on a range of health outcomes: supplementation and fortification; cash transfers; and behaviour change interventions. Based on this, we suggest a model specifying pathways to effect. Pathways are incorporated into a lifecourse framework using individual motivation and receptiveness at different 'preconception action phases' to guide design and targeting of preconception interventions. Interventions with those not planning immediate pregnancy take advantage of settings and implementation platforms outside the maternal and child health arena, since this group is unlikely to be engaged with maternal health services. Interventions to improve women's nutritional status and health behaviours at all preconception action phases need to take account of social and environmental determinants to avoid exacerbating health and gender inequalities, and should be underpinned by a social movement that touches the whole population. A dual strategy that targets specific groups actively planning a pregnancy, while improving the health of the population more broadly, is proposed. The engagement of modern marketing techniques points to a social movement based on an emotional and symbolic connection between improved maternal nutrition and health prior to conception and offspring health. We suggest that speedy and scalable public health benefit might be achieved through strategic engagement with the private sector. Political theory supports the development of an advocacy coalition of groups interested in preconception health, to harness the ...

WHO recommends participatory learning and action cycles with women's groups as a cost-effective strategy to reduce neonatal deaths. Coverage is a determinant of intervention effectiveness, but little is known about why cost-effectiveness estimates vary significantly. This article reanalyses primary cost data from six trials in India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Malawi to describe resource use, explore reasons for differences in costs and cost-effectiveness ratios, and model the cost of scale-up. Primary cost data were collated, and costing methods harmonized. Effectiveness was extracted from a meta-analysis and converted to neonatal life-years saved. Cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated from the provider perspective compared with current practice. Associations between unit costs and cost-effectiveness ratios with coverage, scale and intensity were explored. Scale-up costs and outcomes were modelled using local unit costs and the meta-analysis effect estimate for neonatal mortality. Results were expressed in 2016 international dollars. The average cost was $203 (range: $61-$537) per live birth. Start-up costs were large, and spending on staff was the main cost component. The cost per neonatal life-year saved ranged from $135 to $1627. The intervention was highly cost-effective when using income-based thresholds. Variation in cost-effectiveness across trials was strongly correlated with costs. Removing discounting of costs and life-years substantially reduced all cost-effectiveness ratios. The cost of rolling out the intervention to rural populations ranges from 1.2% to 6.3% of government health expenditure in the four countries. Our analyses demonstrate the challenges faced by economic evaluations of community-based interventions evaluated using a cluster randomized controlled trial design. Our results confirm that women's groups are a cost-effective and potentially affordable strategy for improving birth outcomes among rural populations.

BACKGROUND: Countdown to 2015 (Countdown) supported countries to produce case studies that examine how and why progress was made toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5. Analysing how health-financing data explains improvements in RMNCH outcomes was one of the components to the case studies. METHODS: This paper presents a descriptive analysis on health financing from six Countdown case studies (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Pakistan, Peru, and Tanzania), supplemented by additional data from global databases and country reports on macroeconomic, health financing, demographic, and RMNCH outcome data as needed. It also examines the effect of other contextual factors presented in the case studies to help interpret health-financing data. RESULTS: Dramatic increases in health funding occurred since 2000, where the MDG agenda encouraged countries and donors to invest more resources on health. Most low-income countries relied on external support to increase health spending, with an average 20-64 % of total health spending from 2000 onwards. Middle-income countries relied more on government and household spending. RMNCH funding also increased since 2000, with an average increase of 119 % (2005-2010) for RMNH expenditures (2005-2010) and 165 % for CH expenditures (2005-2011). Progress was made, especially achieving MDG 4, even with low per capita spending; ranging from US$16 to US$44 per child under 5 years among low-income countries. Improvements in distal factors were noted during the time frame of the analysis, including rapid economic growth in Ethiopia, Peru, and Tanzania and improvements in female literacy as documented in Malawi, which are also likely to have contributed to MDG progress and achievements. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in health and RMNCH funding accompanied improvements in outcomes, though low-income countries are still very reliant on external financing, and out-of-pocket comprising a growing share of funds in middle-income settings. Enhancements in tracking RMNCH expenditures across countries are still needed to better understand whether domestic and global health financing initiatives lead to improved outcomes as RMNCH continues to be a priority under the Sustainable Development Goals.

BACKGROUND: Several years in advance of the 2015 endpoint for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Malawi was already thought to be one of the few countries in sub-Saharan Africa likely to meet the MDG 4 target of reducing under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Countdown to 2015 therefore selected the Malawi National Statistical Office to lead an in-depth country case study, aimed mainly at explaining the country's success in improving child survival. METHODS: We estimated child and neonatal mortality for the years 2000-14 using five district-representative household surveys. The study included recalculation of coverage indicators for that period, and used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to attribute the child lives saved in the years from 2000 to 2013 to various interventions. We documented the adoption and implementation of policies and programmes affecting the health of women and children, and developed estimates of financing. FINDINGS: The estimated mortality rate in children younger than 5 years declined substantially in the study period, from 247 deaths (90% CI 234-262) per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 71 deaths (58-83) in 2013, with an annual rate of decline of 5·4%. The most rapid mortality decline occurred in the 1-59 months age group; neonatal mortality declined more slowly (from 50 to 23 deaths per 1000 livebirths), representing an annual rate of decline of 3·3%. Nearly half of the coverage indicators have increased by more than 20 percentage points between 2000 and 2014. Results from the LiST analysis show that about 280,000 children's lives were saved between 2000 and 2013, attributable to interventions including treatment for diarrhoea, pneumonia, and malaria (23%), insecticide-treated bednets (20%), vaccines (17%), reductions in wasting (11%) and stunting (9%), facility birth care (7%), and prevention and treatment of HIV (7%). The amount of funding allocated to the health sector has increased substantially, particularly to child health and HIV and from external sources, but remains below internationally agreed targets. Key policies to address the major causes of child mortality and deliver high-impact interventions at scale throughout Malawi began in the late 1990s and intensified in the latter half of the 2000s and into the 2010s, backed by health-sector-wide policies to improve women's and children's health. INTERPRETATION: This case study confirmed that Malawi had achieved MDG 4 for child survival by 2013. Our findings suggest that this was achieved mainly through the scale-up of interventions that are effective against the major causes of child deaths (malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoea), programmes to reduce child undernutrition and mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and some improvements in the quality of care provided around birth. The Government of Malawi was among the first in sub-Saharan Africa to adopt evidence-based policies and implement programmes at scale to prevent unnecessary child deaths. Much remains to be done, building on this success and extending it to higher proportions of the population and targeting continued high neonatal mortality rates. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO, The World Bank, Government of Australia, Government of Canada, Government of Norway, Government of Sweden, Government of the UK, and UNICEF.

AbstractMalawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual‐level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale‐up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale‐up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality remains unacceptably high, with Northern Nigeria reporting some of the highest rates globally (e.g. 192/1000 live births in Jigawa State). Coverage of key protect and prevent interventions, such as vaccination and clean cooking fuel use, is low. Additionally, knowledge, care-seeking and health system factors are poor. Therefore, a whole systems approach is needed for sustainable reductions in child mortality. METHODS: This is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with integrated process and economic evaluations, conducted from January 2021 to September 2022. The trial will be conducted in Kiyawa Local Government Area, Jigawa State, Nigeria, with an estimated population of 230,000. Clusters are defined as primary government health facility catchment areas (n = 33). The 33 clusters will be randomly allocated (1:1) in a public ceremony, and 32 clusters included in the impact evaluation. The trial will evaluate a locally adapted 'whole systems strengthening' package of three evidence-based methods: community men's and women's groups, Partnership Defined Quality Scorecard and healthcare worker training, mentorship and provision of basic essential equipment and commodities. The primary outcome is mortality of children aged 7 days to 59 months. Mortality will be recorded prospectively using a cohort design, and secondary outcomes measured through baseline and endline cross-sectional surveys. Assuming the following, we will have a minimum detectable effect size of 30%: (a) baseline mortality of 100 per 1000 livebirths, (b) 4480 compounds with 3 eligible children per compound, (c) 80% power, (d) 5% significance, (e) intra-cluster correlation of 0.007 and (f) coefficient of variance of cluster size of 0.74. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat, comparing intervention and control clusters, adjusting for compound and trial clustering. DISCUSSION: This study will provide robust evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based participatory learning and action, with ...

The UK is well into the second wave of COVID-19, with 60 051 lives lost to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to date, according to provisional data from the Office for National Statistics. Official UK Government data show that cases have been rising exponentially since late August, 2020, with increases across all regions in England in recent weeks. As of Nov 4, 2020, the UK had 25 177 confirmed daily cases. These are almost certainly underestimates as between Oct 17 and Oct 23, 2020, England alone had 52 000 estimated daily cases. Estimates of the effective reproduction number in England vary between 1.1 and 1.6. Daily deaths have doubled every fortnight since early September, 2020, with 2067 deaths from COVID-19 in the past week and around 12 000 deaths more are likely in the next month—the majority among people who have already been infected. With 12 000 patients currently in hospital with COVID-19, health services are close to capacity in many regions. We are seeing more than 1400 daily hospital admissions in England, a single doubling period away from the peak of 3000 daily admissions that occurred in April, 2020, which could be reached within 2–3 weeks.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process—from November, 2016 to early 2017—to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement ...

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.