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Global Models and the International Economic Order: A Paper for the United Nations Institute for Training and Research Project on the Future focuses on the impact of global models in decision-making processes and in the pursuance of United Nations objectives as manifested in the concept of the New International Economic Order. The book first offers information on the description and results of studies, including limits to growth, Strategy for Survival model, Latin American world model, global constraints and vision for development, and the United Nations World Input-Output model. The manuscript also examines the comparison of model results. Concerns include structure of models, regionalization in the models, trade and aid, assumptions about demand and overall supply, and levels of regional development. The text also ponders on methodological considerations, as well as structure, detail, and feedback; calibration; sensitivity and scenario analysis; and optimizing models. The manuscript is a dependable reference for readers interested in the use of global models in decision making processes.

Explores possibilities for simulating the effects of continuous disruptions to an economy using a multi‐sector social accounting model. The underlying thesis for the model is that disruptions (due to events ranging from potholes to earthquakes) are a constant and unavoidable aspect of development and that all institutions and production activities are structured and adapt over time so as to balance performance and protection. The first sections explain the role of input‐output tables, especially social accounts, as the basic framework for evaluating systemic vulnerability to disaster. The next sections explain the underlying behavioral components of the model: how the profile of protection versus disruption and costs of protection are determined, and how adaptation of the protection profile to changing events and societal discounting affects protection. In the final sections, these elements are integrated into a multi‐sector social accounting model of the Niagara Frontier region of New York State – affected by industrial decline and currency fluctuations is dependent on a major hydro‐electric power facility that is considered vulnerable to a variety of unscheduled events. Results focus on how disruptions and responses to them propagate over time and between actors.