Suchergebnisse

With the advent of EMU, monetary policy can no longer be used to prevent housing market bubbles in regional economies such as Ireland or Spain. However, fiscal policy can and should be used to achieve the same effect. This paper shows that the advent of EMU relaxed existing financial constraints in Ireland and Spain, allowing a more rapid expansion of the housing stock in those countries to meet their specific demographic circumstances. However, the failure to prevent these booms turning into bubbles did lasting damage to the two economies, damage that could have been avoided by more appropriate fiscal policy action.

The Irish economy has recovered at an impressive pace from the economic and financial crisis that lasted from 2008–12. Nonetheless, as a small open economy with some lingering vulnerabilities from the recent crisis, the economy remains heavily exposed to potential adverse shocks. In this paper, we explore the possible impact of external shocks on the Irish economy. We model the shocks in a two-stage process: first using NiGEM to estimate the impact on Ireland's key trading partners and the broader international environment and then examining the effect of these changes in the COSMO model of the Irish economy. The paper focusses on three relevant risks facing the economy: the potential for a hard Brexit, an increase in interest rates and a depreciation of the sterling euro exchange rate. Using this two-step approach allows us to demonstrate the transmission of external shocks to the Irish economy. The results help to quantify the potential impact on future growth, the labour market, public finances and the financial system of some key risks materialising.

This paper examines recovery scenarios for the Irish economy. It estimates that the growth rate in potential output is 3% a year. This takes account of a permanent loss of output of 10% of GDP as a result of the recession. On this basis, and taking account of government fiscal action this year and in 2010, the government's structural deficit is estimated to fall to between 3 and 4% of GDP by the end of 2010. The analysis suggests that when the world economy recovers the Irish economy will follow suit recovering some lost ground. Should the world recovery be delayed until 2012 this would inflict some further damage but the Irish economy would still see quite rapid growth in the postponed recovery phase.

This paper analyses the medium-term effects of a carbon tax on growth and CO2 emissions in Ireland, a small open economy. We find that a double dividend exists if the carbon tax revenue is recycled through reduced income taxes. If the revenue is recycled by giving a lump-sum transfer to households, a double dividend is unlikely. We also determine that a greater incidence of the carbon tax falls on capital than on labour. When combined with a decrease in income tax, there is a clear shift of the tax burden from labour to capital. Finally, most of the effect on the economy is due to changes in the competitiveness of the manufacturing and market services sectors. These results hold even if we allow changes in energy prices to have an enhanced (detrimental) effect on Ireland's competitiveness.

This paper summarises the economic analyses of the potential impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom, European Union (EU) and euro area performed by members of and contributors to the Brexit Task Force, a group reporting to the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks. The studies were carried out between 2017 and the initial months of 2019 and have been independently published by the authors. The aim of this Occasional Paper is to present the studies in an organic manner, highlighting common features and results.