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Introduction to life history processes and multistate models -- Event history processes and multistate models -- Multistate analysis based on continuous observation -- Some examples of analysis with multistate models -- Studies with intermittent observation of individuals -- Heterogeneity and dependence in multistate processes -- Process-dependent sampling schemes -- Additional topics -- Appendix A Selected software packages -- Appendix B Simulation of multistate processes -- Appendix C Code and output for illustrative analyses -- D Mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit -- Bibliography -- Index

Multistate Models for the Analysis of Life History Data provides the first comprehensive treatment of multistate modeling and analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric methods applicable to many types of life history data. Special models such as illness-death, competing risks and progressive processes are considered, as well as more complex models. The book provides both theoretical development and illustrations of analysis based on data from randomized trials and observational cohort studies in health research. --

Actors partially relinquish sovereignty in return for physical protection by a more powerful actor, generating a hierarchical relationship of a dominant, which supplies a political order, and subordinate(s), seeking the benefits that the political order can offer. This is the outcome of rationally assessing the respective situation, ultimately forgoing the presupposed paradigm that all actors are acknowledged as equal units in IR. The product of applying this hierarchical rubric to the Korean Peninsula offers a fundamental alternative for understanding how and why the current Korean Peninsula Nuclear Crisis unfolded in the manner that it did, while building upon relevant literature constituting the crux of hierarchy in international relations. What is presented are two political orders running parallel to one another: (1) the USA and the ROK and (2) China and the DPRK. Historically, both orders took fundamentally different tracks, as the USA and the ROK maintained a tight, valued and active social contract, while China and the DPRK periodically drifted into loose, devalued and inactive phases. Additionally, a paradigm has emerged following China's inclusive behavior post-1978, the USA's unipolar moment, and Washington's aggressive signaling and actions, forcing the DPRK to reconsider its dominant's reliability as a credible security guarantor. Having witnessed these seismic shifts, the DPRK has intensified its development of 'the ultimate security guarantor', leading to the contemporary crisis we are facing today. (Pac Rev/GIGA)

Grappling with the contemporary topos of a Sino-Russian Entente, Kazakhstan is caught between a delicate long-term peer-competition and potentially a structural rivalry involving the two Eurasian Leviathans, China and Russia. Acknowledging this perspective, Nur-Sultan is inducing hedging dynamics, fishing for a better range of net benefits, while playing a significant fulcrum role central to the regional geopolitical and geo-economic matrix. Although Russia is retaining the prevailing role in the security domain, China is catching up with Russia in various economic indices, notably generated by the Belt and Road Initiative. Utilizing the conceptualization of hierarchy in international relations adapted from the work of David A. Lake, this paper outlines how Nur-Sultan's interests and preferences are acknowledged by the respective dominants, as a basis for social contracting processes to generate a dual hierarchical order in Central Asia.

Can hedging be applied to non-Asia-Pacific regions and historical contexts? And, to what extent did Brazil operationalize hedging behavior during the Second World War? Taking these questions, the purpose of this paper is to expand the discourse on hedging twofold: First, to employ it within a South American context; second, to verify hedging historically as a widespread strategic unit-level behavior of small and middle powers amid systemic-level great power competitions. Here, by unboxing Brazil's hedging behavior during the Second World War, specifically President Getúlio Vargas's ' equidistância pragmática' (pragmatic equidistance) coping strategy, it is found that Brazil employed hedging behavior with omnidirectional engagement with both the United States and Nazi Germany, yet later abandoned this strategy to fully align with Washington and the Allies in 1942, once Brazilian security and economic interests were aligned.

Is foreign aid an effective soft power tool to bolster the international image of donor states? This article explores this question in the context of China's humanitarian assistance to Europe amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Anti-coronavirus aid generated affinity for Beijing in some receiver countries while backfired in others. Borrowing insights from social psychology, this study presents an explanation for this heterogeneous effect. It argues that beneficiaries' initial views of China predispose Beijing's image to a confirmation bias, leading the perceptions of pandemic aid intent to be aligned with pre-existing assessments. Specifically, receiver states with predominantly favorable views of China tend to appreciate the transfer of resources as an act of goodwill. However, recipient countries which lean towards a negative belief of the PRC are inclined to interpret the assistance as a faulty mask diplomacy to manipulate narratives and to expand geopolitical influence. The theory suggests that foreign aid cannot alter donors' global standing, but rather, it merely reinforces their established images.(J Contemp China / GIGA)