Suchergebnisse

When pressed for time, outbreak investigators often use homogeneous mixing models to model infectious diseases in data-poor regions. But recent outbreaks such as the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa have shown the limitations of this approach in an era of increasing urbanization and connectivity. Both outbreak detection and predictive modeling depend on realistic estimates of human and disease mobility, but these data are difficult to acquire in a timely manner. This is especially true when dealing with an emerging outbreak in an under-resourced nation. Weighted travel networks with realistic estimates for population flows are often proprietary, expensive, or nonexistent. Here we propose a method for rapidly generating a mobility model from open-source data. As an example, we use road and river network data, along with population estimates, to construct a realistic model of human movement between health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Using these mobility data, we then fit an epidemic model to real-world surveillance data from the recent Ebola outbreak in the Nord Kivu region of the DRC to illustrate a potential use of the generated mobility estimation. In addition to providing a way for rapid risk estimation, this approach brings together novel techniques to merge diverse GIS datasets that can then be used to address issues that pertain to public health and global health security.

This volume contains contributions for two meetings held to explore the links between geoscience and engineering in rivers and reservoirs (surface and subsurface). The first meeting was held in Brazil and as a result the volume contains many contributions from Brazil. The second was held in Edinburgh and produced contributions from modern rivers in the US, India and Scotland. The geological record from Carboniferous to Recent is represented. A range of outcrop techniques are presented along with statistical techniques used to identify patterns in the time series and spatial sense. The book is intended to cover the cross-disciplinary interest in rivers and their sediments and will interest geologists, geomorphologists, civil, geotechnical and petroleum engineers, government agencies.

This Special Publication contains contributions for two meetings held to explore the links between geoscience and engineering in rivers and reservoirs (surface and subsurface). The first meeting was held in Brazil and, as a result, the volume contains many contributions from Brazil. The second was held in Edinburgh, and produced contributions from modern rivers in the USA, China, India and Scotland. The geological record from Carboniferous to Recent is represented. A range of outcrop techniques are presented along with statistical techniques used to identify patterns in the time series and spatial sense. The book is intended to cover the cross-disciplinary interest in rivers and their sediments, and will interest geologists, geomorphologists, civil, geotechnical and petroleum engineers, and government agencies. Some of the papers collected here demonstrate longer term impacts of human activity on rivers and how these might change the future geological record and, more importantly in the short term, impact on the UN Global Sustainability Goals.