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Despite significant economic reforms in many Southern Mediterranean EU neighbour countries, their growth performance has on average been subdued. This study analyses the differences in growth performance and macroeconomic stability across Mediterranean countries, to draw lessons for the future. The main findings are that Southern Mediterranean countries should benefit from closer ties with the EU that result in higher levels of trade and FDI inflows, once the turbulence of the 'Arab Spring' is resolved, and from the development of financial markets and infrastructure. They will also benefit in keeping inflation under control, which will depend in great part on their ability to maintain fiscal discipline and sustainable current accounts. One of the main challenges for the region will be to implement structural reforms that can help them absorb a large pool of unemployed without creating upward risks to inflation.

This paper studies the relationship between real convergence in the euro area and macroeconomic imbalances. It compares the main features of convergence within the euro area with other EU and non-EU country groups, looking at both 'sigma' and 'beta' convergence in output and total factor productivity. Expected convergence paths for euro area countries are estimated using growth regressions run on a large panel of advanced and emerging market economies and compared to actual growth. The findings support the view that EU and euro area countries display similar convergence patterns to those of other country groups, while the group of countries that adopted the euro first exhibit relatively weak convergence since before the financial crisis. Such differences could be partly linked to relatively low dispersion in per capita incomes across this country group, although lack of convergence is also largely due to persisting differences in total factor productivity performance. The findings also suggest that macroeconomic imbalances accumulated in the pre-crisis period such as high private and government debt and strong growth in the non-tradable sector have been associated with lower convergence, particularly for euro area countries.

Until the early 1990s, the discussions on fiscal policy primarily centered on the functions of economic stabilization, income redistribution and resource allocation. Long-term growth was not usually viewed as an end itself, and fiscal policy was often not sufficiently tailored to the different circumstances and priorities of countries at different stages of development. It is only relatively recently that the discussion has gradually focused on the links between different dimensions of quality of public finances and economic growth. Based on the conceptual framework for linking the quality of public finances and economic growth that has been developed by the European Commission and applied to the EU Member States, this study examines the conditions under which the budgetary policy, and more specifically expenditure, revenue and financing design would be supportive of growth in the Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union. The study also highlights some of the interlinkages between fiscal policy and growth and summarises empirical findings found in the literature with particular focus on Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union. The main findings of the study are similar to those that apply to the EU Member States and can be summarised as follows: * The way government expenditures are financed matters. Deficit and debt financing clearly undermines growth performance. * The composition of expenditure does matter however the efficiency of the expenditure undertaken is even more important for growth. For countries with good governance indicators the positive impact of the productive expenditures on growth was enhanced. The analysis was applied to the efficiency of education and health expenditures with basically similar results. * Notwithstanding the importance of 'fair' income distribution, when tax policy relies heavily on income taxation to do so, the analysis suggests a likely negative effect on growth. Specifically, consumption taxes were found to depress growth by up to four times less than income taxes. The study concludes by highlighting possible areas in the planning and execution of fiscal policy and governance where growth enhancing interventions can be applied.

Two of the four macroeconomic adjustment programmes, Portugal and Ireland's, can be considered a success in the sense that the initial expectations in terms of adjustment, both fiscal and external, were broadly fulfilled. A rebound based on exports has taken hold in these two countries, but a full recovery will take years. In Greece the initial plans were insufficient. While the strong impact of the fiscal adjustment on demand could have been partially anticipated at the time, the resistance to structural reforms was more surprising and remains difficult to cure. The fiscal adjustment is now almost completed, but the external adjustment has not proceeded well. Exports are stagnating despite impressive falls in wage costs. In Cyprus, the outcome has so far been less severe than initially feared. It is still too early to find robust evidence in any country that the programmes have increased the long-term growth potential. Survey-based evidence suggests that structural reforms have not yet taken hold. The EU-led macroeconomic adjustment programmes outside the euro area (e.g. Latvia) seem to have been much stricter, but the adjustment was quicker and followed by a stronger rebound.

Two of the four macroeconomic adjustment programmes, Portugal and Ireland's, can be considered a success in the sense that the initial expectations in terms of adjustment, both fiscal and external, were broadly fulfilled. A rebound based on exports has taken hold in these two countries, but a full recovery will take years. In Greece the initial plans were insufficient. While the strong impact of the fiscal adjustment on demand could have been partially anticipated at the time, the resistance to structural reforms was more surprising and remains difficult to cure. The fiscal adjustment is now almost completed, but the external adjustment has not proceeded well. Exports are stagnating despite impressive falls in wage costs. In Cyprus, the outcome has so far been less severe than initially feared. It is still too early to find robust evidence in any country that the programmes have increased the long-term growth potential. Survey-based evidence suggests that structural reforms have not yet taken hold. The EU-led macroeconomic adjustment programmes outside the euro area (e.g. Latvia) seem to have been much stricter, but the adjustment was quicker and followed by a stronger rebound. ; Das Europa-Parlament unterzog soeben das Wirken der Troika im Hinblick auf Rechenschaftslegung, Demokratieprinzip und Transparenz einer kritischen Prüfung. Dieser Beitrag fasst die Kernaussagen einer vom Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) des Europäischen Parlaments in Auftrag gegebenen ausführlichen Studie zusammen. Zwei der vier makroökonomischen Anpassungsprogramme, dasjenige für Portugal und das für Irland, können in dem Sinne als erfolgreich angesehen werden, dass die ursprünglichen Erwartungen bezüglich der fiskalpolitischen und der außenwirtschaftlichen Anpassung weitestgehend erfüllt wurden. Eine auf Exporten basierende Wende ist in beiden Ländern bereits eingetreten. Eine vollständige Erholung wird aber noch viele Jahre benötigen. In Griechenland waren schon die ursprünglichen Pläne unzureichend. Während der starke Einfluss der fiskalpolitischen Anpassung auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage im Prinzip hätte beizeiten antizipiert werden können, war der Widerstand gegen Strukturreformen überraschender und bleibt nur schwer zu überwinden. Die fiskalpolitische Anpassung ist nunmehr fast vollendet. Die außenwirtschaftliche Anpassung ist jedoch nur wenig vorangekommen. Die Exporte stagnieren trotz eindrucksvoller Senkung der Lohnkosten. Anders als Irland und Portugal hat Griechenland nach wie vor Probleme, die Ziele seines Anpassungsprogramms zu erfüllen, seine Wirtschaft schrumpft wieder und die Regierung steht in scheinbar endlosen Verhandlungen über ein neuerliches multilaterales Finanzierungspaket. Warum? Das Problem lässt sich mit einem Wort zusammenfassen: Exporte (oder vielmehr: Mangel an Exportwachstum). Zwei Zahlen zeigen das Dilemma des Landes. Die Regierung hat in 2013 einen primären Haushaltsüberschuss (Haushaltssaldo minus Schuldendienst) erzielt, und Griechenland hat 2013 weniger exportiert als 2012. Dass der griechische Staat erstmals seit Jahrzehnten in der Lage ist, seine Ausgaben mit seinen eigenen Einnahmen zu bezahlen, ist zwar in der Tat ein Meilenstein. Doch wir glauben, dass die zweite Nachricht (der Mangel an Exportwachstum) langfristig die bedeutsamere ist. Für Zypern war das Ergebnis weniger einschneidend als ursprünglich befürchtet. Es ist jedoch noch für alle Programmländer zu früh, robuste Evidenz fuer eine Erhöhung des langfristigen Produktionspotenzials durch die Anpassungsprogramme zu finden. Survey-basierte Evidenz legt nahe, dass Strukturreformen bisher kaum gewirkt haben. Die von der EU geführten makroökonomischen Anpassungsprogramme außerhalb der Eurozone (z.B. Lettland) waren noch viel strikter. Trotzdem erfolgte die Anpassung schneller und mündete in eine schnellere Wende und Erholung.

Two of the four macroeconomic adjustment programmes, Portugal and Ireland s, can be considered a success in the sense that the initial expectations in terms of adjustment, both fiscal and external, were broadly fulfilled. A rebound based on exports has taken hold in these two countries, but a full recovery will take years. In Greece the initial plans were insufficient. While the strong impact of the fiscal adjustment on demand could have been partially anticipated at the time, the resistance to structural reforms was more surprising and remains difficult to cure. The fiscal adjustment is now almost completed, but the external adjustment has not proceeded well. Exports are stagnating despite impressive falls in wage costs. In Cyprus, the outcome has so far been less severe than initially feared. It is still too early to find robust evidence in any country that the programmes have increased the long-term growth potential. Survey-based evidence suggests that structural reforms have not yet taken hold. The EU-led macroeconomic adjustment programmes outside the euro area (e.g. Latvia) seem to have been much stricter, but the adjustment was quicker and followed by a stronger rebound.