Suchergebnisse

A bank employs logistic regression with state‐dependent sample selection to identify loans that may go wrong. The data consist of some 20 000 loans for which a number of conventional accounting ratios of the debtor firm are known; after two years just over 600 have gone wrong. Inspection shows that the state‐dependent sampling technique does not work because the data do not satisfy the standard logit model. Several variants on this model are considered, and it is found that a bounded logit with a ceiling of (far) less than 1 fits the data better. When it comes to their performance in an independent data‐set, however, the differences between the various methods of analysis are negligible.

Summary  This is a study of the demand for the ownership of new or firsthand cars, i.e. the demand of 'first owners' who habitually buy new cars which are then traded in long before they are obsolescent. Upon combining the evidence of various surveys with time‐series for 1950‐64 it is found that this ownership has an income elasticity of 2 and a price elasticity of – 1.25 in respect of the constant‐quality index of new car prices earlier provided. On the average new cars are traded in after three years so that roughly one third of the existing stock is replaced every year. These values together determine an equation for purchases of new cars which accurately predicts new registrations in 1965 and 1966. Projections for the years 1967‐70 are provided.In the model employed the total number of cars (including used cars) is determined by the active demand exerted by 'first owners' on one hand and by the hitherto fairly constant scrappage rates on the other. Projections of the overall ownership rate can therefore be derived from the forecasts of new registrations. The ownership rate will approach 80% around 1970, and it is likely that at that stage the current scrappage rates will cease to apply in view of the greater predilection for comparatively younger cars.

SummaryThe life distribution of motorcars is examined over the period from 1950 to 1964. Age‐specific survival rates, derived from Dutch registrations, are averaged and lead to the life table shown in table 4. The deviations from average age‐specific survival rates show no significant variation over time nor over successive car generations. Since the registrations include an increasing number of used cars imported from Germany this apparent stability hides compensating changes in car scrap page.Since before the war the life expectancy of motorcars has increased from 8 to 11 years, and it is argued that this is due to the widening of the used car market. In the next stage, which is already well under way in Germany, new cars replace used cars, and rising apparent scrappage rates reflect the disposal of the latter by export.

SummaryIn constructing a price index of new motorcars the main problem is how to deal with the introduction of new models and with quality variation generally. The first difficulty is turned by compiling year‐to‐year indices based on models that each account for 2 per cent or more of total sales in either year. The shifting basis of these indices comprises from 7 to 15 models which together account for 45 to 70 per cent of total registrations. All models are subject to minor improvements; this quality variation is taken into account by representing increases in horse power and overall length by equivalent price reductions. The elasticity coefficients involved in this translation are derived from a cross section analysis of prices and technical characteristics of some fifty widely ranging models in 1964.A price index for the period from 1950 to 1965 is then obtained by linking successive year‐to‐year indices. Over the whole period list prices have risen by a third, to a large extent as the result of changes in purchase tax; this price rise is just about offset by imporvements in quality of some 2 per cent per annum.

SummaryComputers permit data‐processing on a large scale, and more important, admit of the automatic control of the computing process on the basis of intermediate results. Econometric research stands to benefit largely from the first facility as there is a large volume of micro‐economic data that has hitherto remained unused. It is doubtful, however, whether econometrics can as yet make full use of the second possibility; much of it is of an experimental character and demands frequent decisions based on the judgement of the research worker. At present the main need is for research workers to exploit the computational facilities rather than for computing capacity in itself.