Suchergebnisse

This dissertation combines research on three topics in applied empirical economics. The first paper, which is based on joint work with Patrick Johnston, examines the effect of development projects on civil conflict. The second paper estimates the effect of subsidized employment on the happiness of the unemployed. The third paper, based on joint work with Santiago Guerrero, analyzes the effect of restrictions to alcohol accessibility on Marijuana use.The first paper develops a theoretical model of bargaining and conflict in the context of development projects. The model predicts that development projects cause an increase in violent conflict if governments cannot (1) ensure the project's success in the face of insurgent opposition and (2) credibly commit to honoring agreements reached before the start of the project. The model is tested by estimating the causal effect of a large development program on conflict casualties in the Philippines. Identification is based on a regression discontinuity design that exploits an arbitrary poverty threshold used to assign eligibility for the program. Consistent with the model's predictions, we find that eligible municipalities suffered a substantial increase in casualties, which lasts only for the duration of the project and is split evenly between government troops and insurgents.The second paper estimates the causal effect of a type of subsidized employment projects - Germany's \emph{Arbeitsbeschaffungsmassnahmen} - on self-reported happiness. Results from matching and fixed effects estimators suggest that subsidized employment has a large and statistically significant positive effect on the happiness of individuals who would otherwise have been unemployed. Detailed panel data on pre- and post-project happiness suggests that this effect can neither be explained by self-selection of happier individuals into employment nor by the higher incomes of the employed. This suggests that subsidized employment programs are more effective at increasing the happiness of the unemployed than an increase in unemployment benefits. The third paper estimates the effect of the Minimum Legal Drinking Age of 21 years on Marijuana use. The casual effect of this law is estimated through a regression discontinuity design that compares Marijuana use among individuals just below and just above age 21. We find a significant drop in Marijuana use at age 21, which suggests that individuals substitute between alcohol and Marijuana. Policies that restrict alcohol accessibility are therefore likely to have the unintended consequence of increasing Marijuana use.

Studies assessing the impact of information on uptake of preventive health products among the poor have shown mixed results, and little is known about what type of messages are most effective. Drawing on insights from the literature on marketing and consumer behavior, we argue that messages which position a product as aspirational or establish the credibility of its health benefits can increase consumer demand for the product. We test the individual and joint impacts of such messages through a field experiment eliciting willingness to pay for fortified rice in Chandpur District, Bangladesh. We find that the combination of these approaches increases the proportion of participants willing to pay a premium at least equal to the cost of fortification by 18 percentage points. In sharp contrast to the existing literature on welfare stigma, we also show that awareness of free distribution of fortified rice through government programs does not negatively affect consumer demand, but rather appears to lend credibility to health claims about the product.

We estimate the causal effect of a large development program on conflict in the Philippines through a regression discontinuity design that exploits an arbitrary poverty threshold used to assign eligibility for the program. We find that barely eligible municipalities experienced a large increase in conflict casualties compared to barely ineligible ones. This increase is mostly due to insurgent-initiated incidents in the early stages of program preparation. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents try to sabotage the program because its success would weaken their support in the population. (JEL D74, F35, I32, I38, O15, O17, O18, O19)

Climate change is predicted to affect global rainfall patterns, but there is mixed evidence with regard to the effect of rainfall on civil conflict. Even among researchers who argue that rainfall reduces civil conflict, there is disagreement as to the underlying mechanism. Using data from the Philippines for the period 2001-2009, we exploit seasonal variation in the relationship between rainfall and agricultural production to explore the connection between rainfall and civil conflict. In the Philippines, above-average rainfall during the wet season is harmful to agricultural production, while above-average rainfall during the dry season is beneficial. We show that the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict also exhibits seasonality, but in the opposite direction and with a one-year lag. Consistent with the hypothesis that rebel groups gain strength after a bad harvest, there is evidence that lagged rainfall affects the number of violent incidents initiated by insurgents but not the number of incidents initiated by government forces. Our results suggest that policies aimed at mitigating the effect of climate change on agricultural production could weaken the link between climate change and civil conflict.