Romanian national food consumption survey for adolescents, adults and elderly
In: EFSA supporting publications, Band 17, Heft 9
ISSN: 2397-8325
10 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: EFSA supporting publications, Band 17, Heft 9
ISSN: 2397-8325
In order to address the paucity of evidence on the association between childhood eating habits and urbanization, this cross-sectional study describes urban–rural differences in frequency of fruit, vegetable, and soft drink consumption in 123,100 children aged 6–9 years from 19 countries participating in the fourth round (2015-2017) of the WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative (COSI). Children's parents/caregivers completed food-frequency questionnaires. A multivariate multilevel logistic regression analysis was performed and revealed wide variability among countries and within macroregions for all indicators. The percentage of children attending rural schools ranged from 3% in Turkey to 70% in Turkmenistan. The prevalence of less healthy eating habits was high, with between 30–80% and 30–90% children not eating fruit or vegetables daily, respectively, and up to 45% consuming soft drinks on >3 days a week. For less than one third of the countries, children attending rural schools had higher odds (OR-range: 1.1–2.1) for not eating fruit or vegetables daily or consuming soft drinks >3 days a week compared to children attending urban schools. For the remainder of the countries no significant associations were observed. Both population-based interventions and policy strategies are necessary to improve access to healthy foods and increase healthy eating behaviors among children. ; The authors gratefully acknowledge support from a grant from the Russian Government in the context of the WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Data collection in the countries was made possible through funding from Albania: WHO through the Joint Programme on Children, Food Security and Nutrition "Reducing Malnutrition in Children," funded by the Millennium Development Goals Achievement Fund, and the Institute of Public Health; Austria: Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection, Republic of Austria; Bulgaria: Ministry of Health, National Center of Public Health and Analyses, WHO Regional Office for Europe; Croatia: Ministry of Health, Croatian Institute of Public Health and WHO Regional Office for Europe; Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic, grant nr. AZV MZČR 17-31670 A and MZČR–RVO EÚ 00023761; Denmark: Danish Ministry of Health; Estonia: Ministry of Social Affairs, Ministry of Education and Research (IUT 42-2), WHO Country Office, and National Institute for Health Development; Georgia: WHO; Ireland: Health Service Executive; Italy: Ministry of Health and Italian National Institute of Health; Kazakhstan: Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan and WHO Country Office; Kyrgyzstan: World Health Organization; Latvia: Ministry of Health, Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; Lithuania: Science Foundation of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences and Lithuanian Science Council and WHO; Malta: Ministry of Health; Montenegro: WHO and Institute of Public Health of Montenegro; North Macedonia: COSI in North Macedonia is funded by the Government of North Macedonia through National Annual Program of Public Health and implemented by the Institute of Public Health and Centers of Public Health in the country. WHO country office provides support for training and data management; Norway: Ministry of Health and Norwegian Institute of Public Health; Poland: National Health Programme, Ministry of Health; Portugal: Ministry of Health Institutions, the National Institute of Health, Directorate General of Health, Regional Health Directorates and the kind technical support from the Center for Studies and Research on Social Dynamics and Health (CEIDSS); Romania: Ministry of Health; Serbia: This study was supported by the World Health Organization (Ref. File 2015-540940); Slovakia: Biennial Collaborative Agreement between WHO Regional Office for Europe and Ministry of Health SR; Spain: Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition (AESAN); Tajikistan: WHO Country Office in Tajikistan and Ministry of Health and Social Protection; Turkmenistan: WHO Country Office in Turkmenistan and Ministry of Health; Turkey: Turkish Ministry of Health and World Bank. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
BASE
Consuming a healthy diet in childhood helps to protect against malnutrition and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). This cross-sectional study described the diets of 132,489 children aged six to nine years from 23 countries participating in round four (2015-2017) of the WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative (COSI). Children's parents or caregivers were asked to complete a questionnaire that contained indicators of energy-balance-related behaviors (including diet). For each country, we calculated the percentage of children who consumed breakfast, fruit, vegetables, sweet snacks or soft drinks "every day", "most days (four to six days per week)", "some days (one to three days per week)", or "never or less than once a week". We reported these results stratified by country, sex, and region. On a daily basis, most children (78.5%) consumed breakfast, fewer than half (42.5%) consumed fruit, fewer than a quarter (22.6%) consumed fresh vegetables, and around one in ten consumed sweet snacks or soft drinks (10.3% and 9.4%, respectively); however, there were large between-country differences. This paper highlights an urgent need to create healthier food and drink environments, reinforce health systems to promote healthy diets, and continue to support child nutrition and obesity surveillance. ; These activities were partially funded through a grant from the Russian Government in the context of the WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases. The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the Danish Ministry of Health, the Italian Ministry of Health and Italian National Institute of Health, the National Institute for Health Development in Estonia, the Health Service Executive in the Republic of Ireland, the Ministry of Health in Bulgaria, the Poland National Health Program (grant no. 6/1/3.1.12/NPZ/2016/106/1401, the Czech Republic (grants AZV MZCR 17-31670 A and MZ ˇ CR—RVO E ˇ Ú 00023761), and the Ministry of Health in Latvia. The Spanish study was funded by the Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition (AESAN). COSI Austria was supported by a grant from the Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection, Republic of Austria. COSI Turkey gratefully acknowledges the World Bank for the survey credit. COSI Lithuania gratefully acknowledges the WHO representative in Lithuania, Ingrida Zurlyte, for printing the COSI questionnaires. The study in Kazakhstan was funded by the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan within the scientific and technical program. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
BASE
Physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep are important predictors of children's health. This paper aimed to investigate socioeconomic disparities in physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep across the WHO European region. This cross-sectional study used data on 124,700 children aged 6 to 9 years from 24 countries participating in the WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative between 2015 and 2017. Socioeconomic status (SES) was measured through parental education, parental employment status, and family perceived wealth. Overall, results showed different patterns in socioeconomic disparities in children's movement behaviors across countries. In general, high SES children were more likely to use motorized transportation. Low SES children were less likely to participate in sports clubs and more likely to have more than 2 h/day of screen time. Children with low parental education had a 2.24 [95% CI 1.94-2.58] times higher risk of practising sports for less than 2 h/week. In the pooled analysis, SES was not significantly related to active play. The relationship between SES and sleep varied by the SES indicator used. Importantly, results showed that low SES is not always associated with a higher prevalence of "less healthy" behaviors. There is a great diversity in SES patterns across countries which supports the need for country-specific, targeted public health interventions. ; The authors gratefully acknowledge support from a grant from the Russian Government in the context of the WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Data collection in the countries was made possible through funding from: Croatia: Ministry of Health, Croatian Institute of Public Health and WHO Regional Office for Europe. Albania: World Health Organization (WHO) Country Office Albania and the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Bulgaria: WHO Regional Office for Europe. Czech Republic: Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic, grant nr. AZV MZČR 17-31670 A and MZČR–RVO EÚ 00023761. Denmark: The Danish Ministry of Health. France: Santé publique France, the French Agency for Public Health. Georgia: WHO. Ireland: Health Service Executive. Italy: Italian Ministry of Health; Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità). Kazakhstan: the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan within the scientific and technical program. Kyrgyzstan: World Health Organization. Latvia: Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Ministry of Health, Latvia. Lithuania: Science Foundation of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences and Lithuanian Science Council and WHO. Malta: Ministry of Health. Montenegro: WHO and Institute of Public Health of Montenegro. Poland: National Health Programme, Ministry of Health. Portugal: Ministry of Health Institutions, the National Institute of Health, Directorate General of Health, Regional Health Directorates and the kind technical support from the Center for Studies and Research on Social Dynamics and Health (CEIDSS). Romania: Ministry of Health. Russian Federation: WHO. San Marino: Health Ministry. Spain: the Spanish Agency for Food Safety & Nutrition. Tajikistan: WHO Country Office in Tajikistan and Ministry of Health and Social Protection; Turkmenistan: WHO Country Office in Turkmenistan and Ministry of Health. Turkey: Turkish Ministry of Health and World Bank. Austria: Federal Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection of Austria. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
BASE
Introduction: Parents can act as important agents of change and support for healthy childhood growth and development. Studies have found that parents may not be able to accurately perceive their child's weight status. The purpose of this study was to measure parental perceptions of their child's weight status and to identify predictors of potential parental misperceptions. Methods: We used data from the World Health Organization (WHO) European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative and 22 countries. Parents were asked to identify their perceptions of their children's weight status as "underweight," "normal weight," "a little overweight," or "extremely overweight." We categorized children's (6–9 years; n = 124,296) body mass index (BMI) as BMI-for-age Z-scores based on the 2007 WHO-recommended growth references. For each country included in the analysis and pooled estimates (country level), we calculated the distribution of children according to the WHO weight status classification, distribution by parental perception of child's weight status, percentages of accurate, overestimating, or underestimating perceptions, misclassification levels, and predictors of parental misperceptions using a multilevel logistic regression analysis that included only children with overweight (including obesity). Statistical analyses were performed using Stata version 15 1. Results: Overall, 64.1% of parents categorized their child's weight status accurately relative to the WHO growth charts. However, parents were more likely to underestimate their child's weight if the child had overweight (82.3%) or obesity (93.8%). Parents were more likely to underestimate their child's weight if the child was male (adjusted OR [adjOR]: 1.41; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.28–1.55); the parent had a lower educational level (adjOR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.26–1.57); the father was asked rather than the mother (adjOR: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.98–1.33); and the family lived in a rural area (adjOR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.99–1.24). Overall, parents' BMI was not strongly associated with the underestimation of children's weight status, but there was a stronger association in some countries. Discussion/Conclusion: Our study supplements the current literature on factors that influence parental perceptions of their child's weight status. Public health interventions aimed at promoting healthy childhood growth and development should consider parents' knowledge and perceptions, as well as the sociocultural contexts in which children and families live. ; The authors gratefully acknowledge support from a grant from the Russian Government in the context of the WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Data collection in the countries was made possible through funding by: Albania: World Health Organization through the Joint Programme on Children, Food Security and Nutrition "Reducing Malnutrition in Children," funded by the Millennium Development Goals Achievement Fund, and the Institute of Public Health; Bulgaria: Ministry of Health, National Center of Public Health and Analyses, World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe; Croatia: Ministry of Health, Croatian Institute of Public Health and World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe; Czechia: Grants AZV MZČR 17-31670 A and MZČR – RVO EÚ 00023761; Denmark: Danish Ministry of Health; France: French Public Health Agency; Georgia: World Health Organization; Ireland: Health Service Executive; Italy: Ministry of Health; Istituto Superiore di sanità (National Institute of Health); Kazakhstan: Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan and World Health Organization Country Office; Latvia: n/a; Lithuania: Science Foundation of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences and Lithuanian Science Council and World Health Organization; Malta: Ministry of Health; Montenegro: World Health Organization and Institute of Public Health of Montenegro; Poland: National Health Programme, Ministry of Health; Portugal: Ministry of Health Institutions, the National Institute of Health, Directorate General of Health, Regional Health Directorates and the kind technical support of Center for Studies and Research on Social Dynamics and Health (CEIDSS); Romania: Ministry of Health; Russia (Moscow): n/a; San Marino: Health Ministry; Educational Ministry; Social Security Institute; the Health Authority; Spain: Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition (AESAN); Tajikistan: World Health Organization Country Office in Tajikistan and Ministry of Health and Social Protection; and Turkmenistan: World Health Organization Country Office in Turkmenistan and Ministry of Health. The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the views, decisions, or policies of the institutions with which they are affiliated. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
BASE
Establishment of the WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative (COSI)has resulted in a surveillance system which provides regular, reliable, timely, andaccurate data on children's weight status—through standardized measurement ofbodyweight and height—in the WHO European Region. Additional data on dietaryintake, physical activity, sedentary behavior, family background, and schoolenvironments are collected in several countries. In total, 45 countries in the EuropeanRegion have participated in COSI. The first five data collection rounds, between 2007and 2021, yielded measured anthropometric data on over 1.3 million children. In COSI,data are collected according to a common protocol, using standardized instrumentsand procedures. The systematic collection and analysis of these data enables inter-country comparisons and reveals differences in the prevalence of childhood thinness,overweight, normal weight, and obesity between and within populations. Furthermore,it facilitates investigation of the relationship between overweight, obesity, and poten-tial risk or protective factors and improves the understanding of the development ofoverweight and obesity in European primary-school children in order to supportappropriate and effective policy responses. ; The authors gratefully acknowledge support through a grant from the Russian Government in the context of the WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. The ministries of health of Austria, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Malta, Norway, and the Russian Federation provided financial support for the meetings at which the protocol, data collection procedures, and analyses were discussed. Data collection in countries was made possible through funding from the following: Albania: WHO through the Joint Programme on Children, Food Security and Nutrition "Reducing Malnutrition in Children," funded by the Millennium Development Goals Achievement Fund, and the Institute of Public Health. Austria: Federal Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection of Austria. Bulgaria: Ministry of Health, National Center of Public Health and Analyses, and WHO Regional Office for Europe. Bosnia and Herzegovina: WHO country office support for training and data management. Croatia: Ministry of Health, Croatian Institute of Public Health, and WHO Regional Office for Europe. Czechia: Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic, grant number 17-31670A and MZCR—RVO EU 00023761. Denmark: Danish Ministry of Health. Estonia: Ministry of Social Affairs, Ministry of Education and Research (IUT 42-2), WHO Country Office, and National Institute for Health Development. Finland: Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare. France: Santé publique France (the French Agency for Public Health). Georgia: WHO. Greece: International Hellenic University and Hellenic Medical Association for Obesity. Hungary: WHO Country Office for Hungary. Ireland: Health Service Executive. Italy: Ministry of Health. Kazakhstan: Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan, WHO, and UNICEF. Kyrgyzstan: World Health Organization. Latvia: Ministry of Health and Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Lithuania: Science Foundation of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences and Lithuanian Science Council and WHO. Malta: Ministry of Health. Montenegro: WHO and Institute of Public Health of Montenegro. North Macedonia: Government of North Macedonia through National Annual Program of Public Health and implemented by the Institute of Public Health and Centers of Public Health; WHO country office provides support for training and data management. Norway: the Norwegian Ministry of Health and Care Services, the Norwegian Directorate of Health, and the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Poland: National Health Programme, Ministry of Health. Portugal: Ministry of Health Institutions, the National Institute of Health, Directorate General of Health, Regional Health Directorates, and the kind technical support from the Center for Studies and Research on Social Dynamics and Health (CEIDSS). Romania: Ministry of Health. Russian Federation: WHO. San Marino: Health Ministry, Educational Ministry, and Social Security Institute and Health Authority. Serbia: WHO and the WHO Country Office (2015-540940 and 2018/873491-0). Slovakia: Biennial Collaborative Agreement between WHO Regional Office for Europe and Ministry of Health SR. Slovenia: Ministry of Education, Science and Sport of the Republic of Slovenia within the SLOfit surveillance system. Spain: Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition. Sweden: Public Health Agency of Sweden. Tajikistan: WHO Country Office in Tajikistan and Ministry of Health and Social Protection. Turkmenistan: WHO Country Office in Turkmenistan and Ministry of Health. Turkey: Turkish Ministry of Health and World Bank. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
BASE
In 2015-2017, the fourth round of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative (COSI) was conducted in 36 countries. National representative samples of children aged 6–9 (203,323) were measured by trained staff, with similar equipment and using a standardized protocol. This paper assesses the children's body weight status and compares the burden of childhood overweight, obesity, and thinness in Northern, Eastern, and Southern Europe and Central Asia. The results show great geographic variability in height, weight, and body mass index. On average, the children of Northern Europe were the tallest, those of Southern Europe the heaviest, and the children living in Central Asia the lightest and the shortest. Overall, 28.7% of boys and 26.5% of girls were overweight (including obesity) and 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively, were thin according to the WHO definitions. The prevalence of obesity varied from 1.8% of boys and 1.1% of girls in Tajikistan to 21.5% and 19.2%, respectively, in Cyprus, and tended to be higher for boys than for girls. Levels of thinness, stunting, and underweight were relatively low, except in Eastern Europe (for thinness) and in Central Asia. Despite the efforts to halt it, unhealthy weight status is still an important problem in the WHO European Region. ; The authors gratefully acknowledge support from a grant from the Russian Government in the context of the WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Data collection in the countries was made possible through funding from the following: Albania: WHO through the Joint Programme on Children, Food Security and Nutrition "Reducing Malnutrition in Children," funded by the Millennium Development Goals Achievement Fund, and the Institute of Public Health; Austria: Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection, Republic of Austria; Bulgaria: Ministry of Health, National Center of Public Health and Analyses, WHO Regional Office for Europe; Croatia: Ministry of Health, Croatian Institute of Public Health and WHO Regional Office for Europe; Czechia: Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic, grants AZV MZČR 17-31670 A and MZČR – RVO EÚ 00023761; Cyprus: not available; Denmark: Danish Ministry of Health; Estonia: Ministry of Social Affairs, Ministry of Education and Research (IUT 42-2), WHO Country Office, and National Institute for Health Development; Finland: Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare; France: Santé publique France, the French Agency for Public Health; Georgia: WHO; Greece: International Hellenic University and Hellenic Medical Association for Obesity; Hungary: WHO Country Office for Hungary; Ireland: Health Service Executive; Italy: Ministry of Health and Italian National Institute of Health; Kazakhstan: Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan and WHO Country Office; Kyrgyzstan: World Health Organization; Latvia: Ministry of Health, Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; Lithuania: Science Foundation of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences and Lithuanian Science Council and WHO; Malta: Ministry of Health; Montenegro: WHO and Institute of Public Health of Montenegro; North Macedonia: funded by the Government of North Macedonia through National Annual Program of Public Health and implemented by the Institute of Public Health and Centers of Public Health in the country. WHO country office provided support for training and data management; Norway: Ministry of Health and Norwegian Institute of Public Health; Poland: National Health Programme, Ministry of Health; Portugal: Ministry of Health Institutions, the National Institute of Health, Directorate General of Health, Regional Health Directorates and the kind technical support from the Center for Studies and Research on Social Dynamics and Health (CEIDSS); Romania: Ministry of Health; Russian Federation: WHO; San Marino: Health Ministry, Educational Ministry, Social Security Institute and Health Authority; Serbia: World Health Organization (Ref. File 2015-540940); Slovakia: Biennial Collaborative Agreement between WHO Regional Office for Europe and Ministry of Health SR; Slovenia: Ministry of Education, Science and Sport of the Republic of Slovenia within the SLOfit surveillance system; Spain: Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition (AESAN); Sweden: Public Health Agency of Sweden; Tajikistan: WHO Country Office in Tajikistan and Ministry of Health and Social Protection; Turkmenistan: WHO Country Office in Turkmenistan and Ministry of Health; Turkey: Turkish Ministry of Health and World Bank. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
BASE
Background: Children are becoming less physically active as opportunities for safe active play, recreational activities, and active transport decrease. At the same time, sedentary screen-based activities both during school and leisure time are increasing. Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate physical activity (PA), screen time, and sleep duration of girls and boys aged 6-9 years in Europe using data from the WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative (COSI). Method: The fourth COSI data collection round was conducted in 2015-2017, using a standardized protocol that included a family form completed by parents with specific questions about their children's PA, screen time, and sleep duration. Results: Nationally representative data from 25 countries was included and information on the PA behaviour, screen time, and sleep duration of 150,651 children was analysed. Pooled analysis showed that: 79.4% were actively playing for >1 h each day, 53.9% were not members of a sport or dancing club, 50.0% walked or cycled to school each day, 60.2% engaged in screen time for 1 h/day, 8.2-85.6% were not members of a sport or dancing club, 17.7-94.0% walked or cycled to school each day, 32.3-80.0% engaged in screen time for <2 h/day, and 50.0-95.8% slept for 9-11 h/night. Conclusions: The prevalence of engagement in PA and the achievement of healthy screen time and sleep duration are heterogenous across the region. Policymakers and other stakeholders, including school administrators and parents, should increase opportunities for young people to participate in daily PA as well as explore solutions to address excessive screen time and short sleep duration to improve the overall physical and mental health and well-being of children. ; The authors gratefully acknowledge support from a grant from the Russian Government in the context of the WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Data collection in the following countries was made possible through funding. Albania: WHO through the Joint Programme on Children, Food Security and Nutrition "Reducing Malnutrition in Children" (the Millennium Development Goals Achievement Fund) and the Institute of Public Health; Bulgaria: Ministry of Health, National Centre of Public Health and Analyses, WHO Regional Office for Europe; Croatia: Ministry of Health, Croatian Institute of Public Health and WHO Regional Office for Europe; Czechia: grants AZV MZČR 17–31670 A and MZČR – RVO EÚ 00023761; Denmark: Danish Ministry of Health; Estonia: Ministry of Social Affairs, Ministry of Education and Research (IUT 42–2), WHO Country Office, and National Institute for Health Development; France: Sante Publique France, the French Agency for Public Health; Georgia: WHO; Ireland: Health Service Executive; Italy: Ministry of Health and Italian National Institute of Health; Kazakhstan: Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan and WHO Country Office; Kyrgyzstan: WHO; Latvia: Ministry of Health, Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; Lithuania: Science Foundation of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences and Lithuanian Science Council and WHO; Malta: Ministry of Health; Montenegro: WHO and Institute of Public Health of Montenegro; Poland: National Health Programme, Ministry of Health; Portugal: Ministry of Health Institutions, the National Institute of Health, Directorate General of Health, Regional Health Directorates and the kind technical support from the Center for Studies and Research on Social Dynamics and Health (CEIDSS); Romania: Ministry of Health; San Marino: Health Ministry, Educational Ministry, Social Security Institute and Health Authority; Spain: Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition (AESAN); Turkmenistan: WHO Country Office in Turkmenistan and Ministry of Health; Turkey: Turkish Ministry of Health and the World Bank. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
BASE
BACKGROUND: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. FINDINGS: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. INTERPRETATION: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation ; Sí
BASE
The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. Data for this research was provided by MEASURE Evaluation, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of USAID, the US Government, or MEASURE Evaluation. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with licence no. SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law-2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. ; Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. ; Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Melbourne, Public Health England, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (award P30AG047845), and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health (award R01MH110163). ; Peer reviewed
BASE