Risk Analysis for a Sustainable Food Chain
In: Sustainable Food Processing, S. 103-124
11 Ergebnisse
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In: Sustainable Food Processing, S. 103-124
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 27, Heft 5, S. 1179-1202
ISSN: 1539-6924
Recent changes in European legislation have meant that certain processed abattoir waste, which has been appropriately heat treated and ground to a specified particle size, can be spread on nonpasture agricultural land. This has opened the way for the potential landspreading of mammalian meat and bone meal (mMBM) derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption. This article reports on two separate case studies (Study 1 carried out in Great Britain (GB) and Study 2 carried out in Ireland) on the potential exposure to TSE infectivity following the spreading of abattoir waste (derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption) on nonpasture agricultural land. For Study 1, the average TSE infectivity on nonpasture agricultural land per year from sheep with scrapie was found to be higher (five orders of magnitude) than that estimated for BSE in cattle (3.9 × 10−3 Ovine Oral ID50/ton of soil compared to 3.3 × 10−8 Bovine Oral ID50/ton of soil). The mean estimate for BSE in sheep was 8.1 × 10−6 Ovine Oral ID50/ton of soil. The mean level of infectivity in mMBM was assessed to be 1.2 × 10−5 and 2.36 × 10−5 ID50/ton of mMBM for Study 1 and 2, respectively. For Study 2 the spreading of mMBM was estimated to result in infectivity on nonpasture land of 1.62 × 10−8 Bovine Oral ID50/m3. The mean simulated probability of infection per year per bovine animal was 1.11 × 10−9. Given the low infectivity density and corresponding low risks to bovines the spreading of mMBM could be considered a viable alternative for the utilization of mMBM.
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 31, Heft 5, S. 706-726
ISSN: 1539-6924
Nanomaterials are finding application in many different environmentally relevant products and processes due to enhanced catalytic, antimicrobial, and oxidative properties of materials at this scale. As the market share of nano‐functionalized products increases, so too does the potential for environmental exposure and contamination. This study presents some exposure ranking methods that consider potential metallic nanomaterial surface water exposure and fate, due to nano‐functionalized products, through a number of exposure pathways. These methods take into account the limited and disparate data currently available for metallic nanomaterials and apply variability and uncertainty principles, together with qualitative risk assessment principles, to develop a scientific ranking. Three exposure scenarios with three different nanomaterials were considered to demonstrate these assessment methods: photo‐catalytic exterior paint (nano‐scale TiO2), antimicrobial food packaging (nano‐scale Ag), and particulate‐reducing diesel fuel additives (nano‐scale CeO2). Data and hypotheses from literature relating to metallic nanomaterial aquatic behavior (including the behavior of materials that may relate to nanomaterials in aquatic environments, e.g., metals, pesticides, surfactants) were used together with commercial nanomaterial characteristics and Irish natural aquatic environment characteristics to rank the potential concentrations, transport, and persistence behaviors within subjective categories. These methods, and the applied scenarios, reveal where data critical to estimating exposure and risk are lacking. As research into the behavior of metallic nanomaterials in different environments emerges, the influence of material and environmental characteristics on nanomaterial behavior within these exposure‐ and risk‐ranking methods may be redefined on a quantitative basis.
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 29, Heft 10, S. 1410-1426
ISSN: 1539-6924
The objective of this study is to estimate the likely human exposure to the group 2a carcinogen, acrylamide, from French fries by Irish consumers by developing a quantitative risk assessment model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Various stages in the French‐fry‐making process were modeled from initial potato harvest, storage, and processing procedures. The model was developed in Microsoft Excel with the @Risk add‐on package. The model was run for 10,000 iterations using Latin hypercube sampling. The simulated mean acrylamide level in French fries was calculated to be 317 μg/kg. It was found that females are exposed to smaller levels of acrylamide than males (mean exposure of 0.20 μg/kg bw/day and 0.27 μg/kg bw/day, respectively). Although the carcinogenic potency of acrylamide is not well known, the simulated probability of exceeding the average chronic human dietary intake of 1 μg/kg bw/day (as suggested by WHO) was 0.054 and 0.029 for males and females, respectively. A sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of the selection of appropriate cultivars with known low reducing sugar levels for French fry production. Strict control of cooking conditions (correlation coefficient of 0.42 and 0.35 for frying time and temperature, respectively) and blanching procedures (correlation coefficient −0.25) were also found to be important in ensuring minimal acrylamide formation.
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 35, Heft 6, S. 1140-1153
ISSN: 1539-6924
The objective of this study was to model and quantify the level of Listeria monocytogenes in raw milk cheese (RMc) and pasteurized milk cheese (PMc) from farm to fork using a Bayesian inference approach combined with a quantitative risk assessment. The modeling approach included a prediction of contamination arising from the farm environment as well from cross‐contamination within the cheese‐processing facility through storage and subsequent human exposure. The model predicted a high concentration of L. monocytogenes in contaminated RMc (mean 2.19 log10 CFU/g) compared to PMc (mean −1.73 log10 CFU/g). The mean probability of illness (P1 for low‐risk population, LR) and (P2 for high‐risk population, HR, e.g., immunocompromised) adult Irish consumers following exposure to contaminated cheese was 7 × 10−8 (P1) and 9 × 10−4 (P2) for RMc and 7 × 10−10 (P1) and 8 × 10−6 (P2) for PMc, respectively. In addition, the model was used to evaluate performance objectives at various stages, namely, the cheese making and ripening stages, and to set a food safety objective at the time of consumption. A scenario analysis predicted various probabilities of L. monocytogenes contamination along the cheese‐processing chain for both RMc and PMc. The sensitivity analysis showed the critical factors for both cheeses were the serving size of the cheese, storage time, and temperature at the distribution stage. The developed model will allow food processors and policymakers to identify the possible routes of contamination along the cheese‐processing chain and to reduce the risk posed to human health.
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 37, Heft 12, S. 2360-2388
ISSN: 1539-6924
AbstractA probabilistic and interdisciplinary risk–benefit assessment (RBA) model integrating microbiological, nutritional, and chemical components was developed for infant milk, with the objective of predicting the health impact of different scenarios of consumption. Infant feeding is a particular concern of interest in RBA as breast milk and powder infant formula have both been associated with risks and benefits related to chemicals, bacteria, and nutrients, hence the model considers these three facets. Cronobacter sakazakii, dioxin‐like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl‐PCB), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were three risk/benefit factors selected as key issues in microbiology, chemistry, and nutrition, respectively. The present model was probabilistic with variability and uncertainty separated using a second‐order Monte Carlo simulation process. In this study, advantages and limitations of undertaking probabilistic and interdisciplinary RBA are discussed. In particular, the probabilistic technique was found to be powerful in dealing with missing data and to translate assumptions into quantitative inputs while taking uncertainty into account. In addition, separation of variability and uncertainty strengthened the interpretation of the model outputs by enabling better consideration and distinction of natural heterogeneity from lack of knowledge. Interdisciplinary RBA is necessary to give more structured conclusions and avoid contradictory messages to policymakers and also to consumers, leading to more decisive food recommendations. This assessment provides a conceptual development of the RBA methodology and is a robust basis on which to build upon.
In: Journal of risk research: the official journal of the Society for Risk Analysis Europe and the Society for Risk Analysis Japan, Band 4, Heft 3, S. 251-274
ISSN: 1466-4461
In: Reviews on environmental health, Band 36, Heft 4, S. 477-491
ISSN: 2191-0308
Abstract
Objective
Urea is one of the most widely used commercial fertilisers worldwide due to its high N density and cost effectiveness. However, it can be lost in the form of gaseous ammonia and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which can potentially lead to environmental pollution. Farmers are compelled to apply more urea to account for those losses, thereby increasing their expenditure on fertilization. The objective of this paper is to present a literature review on current knowledge regarding inhibitor technologies such as urease inhibitor; n-(N-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT), and nitrification inhibitor; dicyandiamide (DCD).
Methods
A thorough review of all the scientific literature was carried out and a proposed risk assessment framework developed.
Results
The study showed that the urease inhibitor NBPT significantly reduced NH3 loss from urea. However, concerns about NBPT safety to human health had been raised when the nitrification inhibitor DCD appeared as a residue in milk. This article presents a risk assessment framework for evaluating human exposure to chemicals like NBPT or DCD, following the consumption of foods of animal origin (e.g. milk) from cows grazing on inhibitor-treated pasture.
Conclusion
The EU's target of a 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 can be aided by using NBPT as part of an overall suite of solutions. A comprehensive risk assessment is advised for effective evaluation of potential risks from exposure to these inhibitors.
In: STOTEN-D-22-18005
SSRN
In: Environmental science and pollution research: ESPR, Band 30, Heft 36, S. 85482-85493
ISSN: 1614-7499
In: EFSA journal, Band 19, Heft 12
ISSN: 1831-4732