The Covid-19 outbreak has triggered a global crisis that is challenging governments, health systems and the scientific community worldwide. A central question in the Covid-19 pandemic is whether climatic factors have influenced its progression. To address this question, we used mortality rates during the first three weeks of recorded mortality in 144 countries, during the first wave of the pandemic. We examined the effect of climatic variables, along with the proportion of the population older than 64 years old, the number of beds in hospitals, and the timing and strength of the governmental travel measures to control the spread of the disease. Our first model focuses on air temperature as the central climatic factor and explains 67% of the variation in mortality rate, with 37% explained by the fixed variables considered and 31% explained by country-specific variations. We show that mortality rate is negatively influenced by warmer air temperature. Each additional Celsius degree decreases mortality rate by ~5%. Our second model is centred on the UV Index and follows the same trend as air temperature, explaining 69% of the variation in mortality rate. These results are robust to the exclusion of countries with low incomes, as well as to the exclusion of low- and medium- income countries. We also show that the proportion of vulnerable age classes and access to healthcare are critical factors impacting the mortality rate of this disease. The effects of air temperature at an early stage of the Covid-19 outbreak is a key factor to understand the primary spread of this pandemic, and should be considered in projecting subsequent waves.
WOS: 000378272400038 ; PubMed ID: 27274049 ; Farming and sedentism first appeared in southwestern Asia during the early Holocene and later spread to neighboring regions, including Europe, along multiple dispersal routes. Conspicuous uncertainties remain about the relative roles of migration, cultural diffusion, and admixture with local foragers in the early Neolithization of Europe. Here we present paleogenomic data for five Neolithic individuals from northern Greece and northwestern Turkey spanning the time and region of the earliest spread of farming into Europe. We use a novel approach to recalibrate raw reads and call genotypes from ancient DNA and observe striking genetic similarity both among Aegean early farmers and with those from across Europe. Our study demonstrates a direct genetic link between Mediterranean and Central European early farmers and those of Greece and Anatolia, extending the European Neolithic migratory chain all the way back to southwestern Asia. ; Marie Curie Initial Training Network (BEAN/Bridging the European and Anatolian Neolithic) [GA 289966]; DFGGerman Research Foundation (DFG) [BU 1403/6-1, BO 4119/1]; Alexander von Humboldt FoundationAlexander von Humboldt Foundation; European Union (EU) SYNTHESYS/Synthesis of Systematic Resources [GA 226506-CP-CSA-INFRA]; VolkswagenstiftungVolkswagen [FKZ: 87161]; Irish Research CouncilIrish Research Council for Science, Engineering and Technology [GOIPG/2013/1219]; EU CodeX Project [295729]; EU Social Fund; Greek national funds research funding program THALES; Greek national funds research funding program ARISTEIA II; Swiss NSFSwiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) [31003A_156853, 31003A_149920]; BBSRCBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [BB/L009382/1]; CoMPLEX via EPSRC [EP/F500351/1]; Sir Henry Dale Fellowship - Wellcome Trust [098386/Z/12/Z]; Sir Henry Dale Fellowship - Royal Society [098386/Z/12/Z]; National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre; Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust [100719/Z/12/Z]; University of Mainz; HPC cluster MOGON - DFG [INST 247/602-1 FUGG]; Netherlands Organization for Scientific ResearchNetherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) [380-62-005]; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research CouncilBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [BB/L009382/1]; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research CouncilEngineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [1357822] ; We thank Songul Alpaslan for help with sampling in Barcin and Eleni Stravopodi for help with sampling in Theopetra. Z.H. and R.M. are supported by a Marie Curie Initial Training Network (BEAN/Bridging the European and Anatolian Neolithic, GA 289966) awarded to M.C., S.J.S., D.G.B., M.G.T., and J. Burger. C.P., J. Burger and S.K. received funding from DFG (BU 1403/6-1). C.P. and J. Burger received funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. C.S. and M.S. were supported by the European Union (EU) SYNTHESYS/Synthesis of Systematic Resources GA 226506-CP-CSA-INFRA, DFG: (BO 4119/1) and Volkswagenstiftung (FKZ: 87161). L.M.C. is funded by the Irish Research Council (GOIPG/2013/1219). A.S. was supported by the EU CodeX Project 295729. K. Kotsakis, S.T., D.U.-K., P.H., and C.P. were cofinanced by the EU Social Fund and Greek national funds research funding program THALES. C.P., M.U., K. Kotsakis, S.T., and D.U.-K. were cofinanced by the EU Social Fund and the Greek national funds research funding program ARISTEIA II. M.C. was supported by Swiss NSF Grant 31003A_156853. A. K. and D.W. were supported by Swiss NSF Grant 31003A_149920. S.L. is supported by the BBSRC (Grant BB/L009382/1). L.v.D. is supported by CoMPLEX via EPSRC (Grant EP/F500351/1). G.H. is supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (Grant 098386/Z/12/Z) and by the National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre. M.G.T. and Y.D. are supported by a Wellcome Trust Senior Research Fellowship Grant 100719/Z/12/Z (to M.G.T.). J. Burger is grateful for support by the University of Mainz and the HPC cluster MOGON (funded by DFG; INST 247/602-1 FUGG). F.G. was supported by Grant 380-62-005 of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research.
