Given the series of large-scale flood disasters that have occurred in recent years, there is a growing recognition among community leaders, businesses, insurers, governments and international donors of the need to invest in risk reduction measures before such events happen. Due to the costs of risk reduction measures, these actions need to be justified and as a result there is an increasing need to utilize decision-support tools, which can help to make the case for action to reduce disaster risks and build flood resilience when faced with limited resources. Across stakeholders, the specific objectives from the use of decision-support tools include (i) demonstrating the efficiency of the action ex-ante (before the flood); (ii) aiding in the selection of a particular intervention in enhancing community flood resilience from a suite of possible options; (iii) helping communities make the right choice when faced with limited investments; (iv) demonstrating the benefits of donor funding of community flood resilience projects; and (v) monitoring the successes and weaknesses of past interventions to generate lessons learned for future work. Typically, discussion on decision-support for disaster risk reduction (DRR) in floods (as well as for other hazards) has focused on cost-benefit analysis (CBA), however there are a number of other tools available to support decision-making. These include cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and robust-decision-making approaches (RDMA), which have been applied to similar problems, and can also be used to aid decision-making regarding flooding. This white paper provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges of applying these different tools, and guides the reader to select among them. Selection depends on the desired objective, circumstances, data available, timeframe to perform analyses, level of detail, and other considerations. We first focus on the CBA decision-tool, as this has been the mainstay of research and implementation. We then go beyond CBA to consider the other techniques for prioritising DRR investments. While our analysis is specific to flood DRR actions, the conclusion are also applicable to other hazards. The key findings arising from this white paper with relevance to research, policy and implementation of flood DRR decision-support tools, are: (1) Following a comprehensive review of the quantitative CBA flood DRR evidence, we find that flood DRR investments largely pay off, with an average of five dollars saved for every dollar spent through avoided and reduced losses; (2) Using CBA for flood risk reduction assessment should properly account for low-frequency, high-impact flood events, and also tackle key challenges such as intangible impacts; (3) Decision-making can be improved by using various decision support tools tailored to the desired outcomes and contexts. This white paper is the foundation upon which the Zurich flood resilience alliance work on integration of a decision toolbox will proceed "on the ground," with established community-based risk assessment tools, in particular Vulnerability Capacity Assessments (VCA) or Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessments (PCVA). Based on these findings we propose a way forward over the next several years on informing risk-based decision making as part of the alliance program.
Given the series of large-scale flood disasters that have occurred in recent years, there is a growing recognition among community leaders, businesses, insurers, governments and international donors of the need to invest in risk reduction measures before such events happen. Due to the costs of risk reduction measures, these actions need to be justified and as a result there is an increasing need to utilize decision-support tools, which can help to make the case for action to reduce disaster risks and build flood resilience when faced with limited resources. Across stakeholders, the specific objectives from the use of decision-support tools include (i) demonstrating the efficiency of the action ex-ante (before the flood); (ii) aiding in the selection of a particular intervention in enhancing community flood resilience from a suite of possible options; (iii) helping communities make the right choice when faced with limited investments; (iv) demonstrating the benefits of donor funding of community flood resilience projects; and (v) monitoring the successes and weaknesses of past interventions to generate lessons learned for future work. Typically, discussion on decision-support for disaster risk reduction (DRR) in floods (as well as for other hazards) has focused on cost-benefit analysis (CBA), however there are a number of other tools available to support decision-making. These include cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and robust-decision-making approaches (RDMA), which have been applied to similar problems, and can also be used to aid decision-making regarding flooding. This white paper provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges of applying these different tools, and guides the reader to select among them. Selection depends on the desired objective, circumstances, data available, timeframe to perform analyses, level of detail, and other considerations. We first focus on the CBA decision-tool, as this has been the mainstay of research and implementation. We then go beyond CBA to consider the other techniques for prioritising DRR investments. While our analysis is specific to flood DRR actions, the conclusion are also applicable to other hazards. The key findings arising from this white paper with relevance to research, policy and implementation of flood DRR decision-support tools, are: (1) Following a comprehensive review of the quantitative CBA flood DRR evidence, we find that flood DRR investments largely pay off, with an average of five dollars saved for every dollar spent through avoided and reduced losses; (2) Using CBA for flood risk reduction assessment should properly account for low-frequency, high-impact flood events, and also tackle key challenges such as intangible impacts; (3) Decision-making can be improved by using various decision support tools tailored to the desired outcomes and contexts. This white paper is the foundation upon which the Zurich flood resilience alliance work on integration of a decision toolbox will proceed "on the ground," with established community-based risk assessment tools, in particular Vulnerability Capacity Assessments (VCA) or Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessments (PCVA). Based on these findings we propose a way forward over the next several years on informing risk-based decision making as part of the alliance program.
Funding for this study was provided by the Aase and Ejner Danielsens Foundation; Academy of Finland (41071, 77299, 102318, 110413, 117787, 121584, 123885, 124243, 124282, 126925, 129378, 134309, 286284); Accare Center for Child and Adolescent Psychiatry; Action on Hearing Loss (G51); Agence Nationale de la 359 Recherche; Agency for Health Care Policy Research (HS06516); ALF/LUA research grant in Gothenburg; ALFEDIAM; ALK-Abello´ A/S; Althingi; American Heart Association (13POST16500011); Amgen; Andrea and Charles Bronfman Philanthropies; Ardix Medical; Arthritis Research UK; Association Diabe`te Risque Vasculaire; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (241944, 339462, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389927, 389938, 442915, 442981, 496739, 552485, 552498); Avera Institute; Bayer Diagnostics; Becton Dickinson; BHF (RG/14/5/30893); Boston Obesity Nutrition Research Center (DK46200), Bristol-Myers Squibb; British Heart Foundation (RG/10/12/ 28456, RG2008/08, RG2008/014, SP/04/002); Medical Research Council of Canada; Canadian Institutes for Health Research (FRCN-CCT-83028); Cancer Research UK; Cardionics; Cavadis B.V., Center for Medical Systems Biology; Center of Excellence in Genomics; CFI; CIHR; City of Kuopio; CNAMTS; Cohortes Sante´ TGIR; Contrat de Projets E´tat-Re´gion; Croatian Science Foundation (8875); Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation; Danish Council for Independent Research (DFF-1333- 00124, DFF-1331-00730B); County Council of Dalarna; Dalarna University; Danish Council for Strategic Research; Danish Diabetes Academy; Danish Medical Research Council; Department of Health, UK; Development Fund from the University of Tartu (SP1GVARENG); Diabetes Hilfs- und Forschungsfonds Deutschland; Diabetes UK; Diabetes Research and Wellness Foundation Fellowship; Donald W. Reynolds Foundation; Dr Robert Pfleger-Stiftung; Dutch Brain Foundation; Dutch Diabetes Research Foundation; Dutch Inter University Cardiology Institute; Dutch Kidney Foundation (E033); Dutch Ministry of Justice; the DynaHEALTH action No. 633595, Economic Structure Enhancing Fund of the Dutch Government; Else Kro¨ner-Fresenius-Stiftung (2012_A147, P48/08//A11/08); Emil Aaltonen Foundation; Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam; Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; the Municipality of Rotterdam; Estonian Government (IUT20-60, IUT24-6); Estonian Research Roadmap through the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (3.2.0304.11-0312); European Research Council (ERC Starting Grant and 323195:SZ-245 50371-GLUCOSEGENESFP7-IDEAS-ERC); European Regional Development Fund; European Science Foundation (EU/QLRT-2001-01254); European Commission (018947, 018996, 201668, 223004, 230374, 279143, 284167, 305739, BBMRI-LPC-313010, HEALTH-2011.2.4.2-2-EUMASCARA, HEALTH-2011-278913, HEALTH-2011-294713-EPLORE, HEALTH-F2- 2008-201865-GEFOS, HEALTH-F2-2013-601456, HEALTH-F4-2007-201413, HEALTH-F4-2007-201550-HYPERGENES, HEALTH-F7-305507 HOMAGE, IMI/ 115006, LSHG-CT-2006-018947, LSHG-CT-2006-01947, LSHM-CT-2004-005272, LSHM-CT-2006-037697, LSHM-CT-2007-037273, QLG1-CT-2002-00896, QLG2-CT2002-01254); Faculty of Biology and Medicine of Lausanne; Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01ZZ0103, 01ZZ0403, 01ZZ9603, 03IS2061A, 03ZIK012); Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Fe´de´ration Franc¸aise de Cardiologie; Finnish Cultural Foundation; Finnish Diabetes Association; Finnish Foundation of Cardiovascular Research; Finnish Heart Association; Fondation Leducq; Food Standards Agency; Foundation for Strategic Research; French Ministry of Research; FRSQ; Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the NIH; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, 01ER1206, 01ER1507); GlaxoSmithKline; Greek General Secretary of Research and Technology; Go¨teborg Medical Society; Health and Safety Executive; Healthcare NHS Trust; Healthway; Western Australia; Heart Foundation of Northern Sweden; Helmholtz Zentrum Mu¨nchen—German Research Center for Environmental Health; Hjartavernd; Ingrid Thurings Foundation; INSERM; InterOmics (PB05 MIUR-CNR); INTERREG IV Oberrhein Program (A28); Interuniversity Cardiology Institute of the Netherlands (ICIN, 09.001); Italian Ministry of Health (ICS110.1/RF97.71); Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (FaReBio di Qualita`); Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation; the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports, the Netherlands; J.D.E. and Catherine T, MacArthur Foundation Research Networks on Successful Midlife Development and Socioeconomic Status and Health; Juho Vainio Foundation; Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation International; KfH Stiftung Pra¨ventivmedizin e.V.; King's College London; Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation; Kuopio University Hospital; Kuopio, Tampere and Turku University Hospital Medical Funds (X51001); La Fondation de France; Leenaards Foundation; Lilly; LMUinnovativ; Lundberg Foundation; Magnus Bergvall Foundation; MDEIE; Medical Research Council UK (G0000934, G0601966, G0700931, MC_U106179471, MC_UU_12019/1); MEKOS Laboratories; Merck Sante´; Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports, The Netherlands; Ministry of Cultural Affairs of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Ministry of Economic Affairs, The Netherlands; Ministry of Education and Culture of Finland (627;2004-2011); Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, The Netherlands; Ministry of Science, Education and Sport in the Republic of Croatia (108-1080315-0302); MRC centre for Causal Analyses in Translational Epidemiology; MRC Human Genetics Unit; MRC-GlaxoSmithKline pilot programme (G0701863); MSD Stipend Diabetes; National Institute for Health Research; Netherlands Brain Foundation (F2013(1)-28); Netherlands CardioVascular Research Initiative (CVON2011-19); Netherlands Genomics Initiative (050-060-810); Netherlands Heart Foundation (2001 D 032, NHS2010B280); Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) (56-464- 14192, 60-60600-97-118, 100-001-004, 261-98-710, 400-05-717, 480-04-004, 480-05-003, 481-08-013, 904-61-090, 904-61-193, 911-11-025, 985-10-002, Addiction-31160008, BBMRI–NL 184.021.007, GB-MaGW 452-04-314, GB-MaGW 452-06-004, GB-MaGW 480-01-006, GB-MaGW 480-07-001, GB-MW 940-38-011, Middelgroot-911-09-032, NBIC/BioAssist/RK 2008.024, Spinozapremie 175.010.2003.005, 175.010.2007.006); NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | DOI:10.1038/ncomms14977 ARTICLE NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 8:14977 | DOI:10.1038/ncomms14977 | www.nature.com/naturecommunications 13 Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam; NHS Foundation Trust; National Institutes of Health (1RC2MH089951, 1Z01HG000024, 24152, 263MD9164, 263MD821336, 2R01LM010098, 32100-2, 32122, 32108, 5K99HL130580-02, AA07535, AA10248, AA11998, AA13320, AA13321, AA13326, AA14041, AA17688, AG13196, CA047988, DA12854, DK56350, DK063491, DK078150, DK091718, DK100383, DK078616, ES10126, HG004790, HHSN268200625226C, HHSN268200800007C, HHSN268201200036C, HHSN268201500001I, HHSN268201100046C, HHSN268201100001C, HHSN268201100002C, HHSN268201100003C, HHSN268201100004C, HHSN271201100004C, HL043851, HL45670, HL080467, HL085144, HL087660, HL054457, HL119443, HL118305, HL071981, HL034594, HL126024, HL130114, KL2TR001109, MH66206, MH081802, N01AG12100, N01HC55015, N01HC55016, N01C55018, N01HC55019, N01HC55020, N01HC55021, N01HC55022, N01HC85079, N01HC85080, N01HC85081, N01HC85082, N01HC85083, N01HC85086, N01HC95159, N01HC95160, N01HC95161, N01HC95162, N01HC95163, N01HC95164, N01HC95165, N01HC95166, N01HC95167, N01HC95168, N01HC95169, N01HG65403, N01WH22110, N02HL6-4278, N01-HC-25195, P01CA33619, R01HD057194, R01HD057194, R01AG023629, R01CA63, R01D004215701A, R01DK075787, R01DK062370, R01DK072193, R01DK075787, R01DK089256, R01HL53353, R01HL59367, R01HL086694, R01HL087641, R01HL087652, R01HL103612, R01HL105756, R01HL117078, R01HL120393, R03 AG046389, R37CA54281, RC2AG036495, RC4AG039029, RPPG040710371, RR20649, TW008288, TW05596, U01AG009740, U01CA98758, U01CA136792, U01DK062418, U01HG004402, U01HG004802, U01HG007376, U01HL080295, UL1RR025005, UL1TR000040, UL1TR000124, UL1TR001079, 2T32HL007055-36, T32GM074905, HG002651, HL084729, N01-HC25195, UM1CA182913); NIH, National Institute on Aging (Intramural funding, NO1-AG-1-2109); Northern Netherlands Collaboration of Provinces; Novartis Pharma; Novo Nordisk; Novo Nordisk Foundation; Nutricia Research Foundation (2016-T1); ONIVINS; Parnassia Bavo group; Pierre Fabre; Province of Groningen; Pa¨ivikki and Sakari Sohlberg Foundation; Påhlssons Foundation; Paavo Nurmi Foundation; Radboud Medical Center Nijmegen; Research Centre for Prevention and Health, the Capital Region of Denmark; the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; Research into Ageing; Robert Dawson Evans Endowment of the Department of Medicine at Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Medical Center; Roche; Royal Society; Russian Foundation for Basic Research (NWO-RFBR 047.017.043); Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06); Sanofi-Aventis; Scottish Government Health Directorates, Chief Scientist Office (CZD/16/6); Siemens Healthcare; Social Insurance Institution of Finland (4/26/2010); Social Ministry of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Socie´te´ Francophone du 358 Diabe`te; State of Bavaria; Stiftelsen fo¨r Gamla Tja¨narinnor; Stockholm County Council (560183, 592229); Strategic Cardiovascular and Diabetes Programmes of Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm County Council; Stroke Association; Swedish Diabetes Association; Swedish Diabetes Foundation (2013-024); Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research; Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (20120197, 20150711); Swedish Research Council (0593, 8691, 2012-1397, 2012-1727, and 2012-2215); Swedish Society for Medical Research; Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics; Swiss National Science Foundation (3100AO-116323/1, 31003A-143914, 33CSCO-122661, 33CS30-139468, 33CS30-148401, 51RTP0_151019); Tampere Tuberculosis Foundation; Technology Foundation STW (11679); The Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen, Ministry of the Flemish Community (G.0880.13, G.0881.13); The Great Wine Estates of the Margaret River Region of Western Australia; Timber Merchant Vilhelm Bangs Foundation; Topcon; Tore Nilsson Foundation; Torsten and Ragnar So¨derberg's Foundation; United States – Israel Binational Science Foundation (Grant 2011036), Umeå University; University Hospital of Regensburg; University of Groningen; University Medical Center Groningen; University of Michigan; University of Utrecht; Uppsala Multidisciplinary Center for Advanced Computational Science (UPPMAX) (b2011036); Velux Foundation; VU University's Institute for Health and Care Research; Va¨stra Go¨taland Foundation; Wellcome Trust (068545, 076113, 079895, 084723, 088869, WT064890, WT086596, WT098017, WT090532, WT098051, 098381); Wissenschaftsoffensive TMO; Yrjo¨ Jahnsson Foundation; and Åke Wiberg Foundation