Suchergebnisse

This thesis focuses on two aspects of European economic integration: exchange rate stabilization between non-euro Countries and the Euro Area, and real and nominal convergence of Central and Eastern European Countries. Each Chapter covers these aspects from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. Chapter 1 investigates whether the introduction of the euro was accompanied by a shift in the de facto exchange rate policy of European countries outside the euro area, using methods recently developed by the literature to detect "Fear of Floating" episodes. I find that European Inflation Targeters have tried to stabilize the euro exchange rate, after its introduction; fixed exchange rate arrangements, instead, apart from official policy changes, remained stable. Finally, the euro seems to have gained a relevant role as a reference currency even outside Europe. Chapter 2 proposes an approach to estimate Central Bank preferences starting from the Central Bank's optimization problem within a small open economy, using Sweden as a case study, to find whether stabilization of the exchange rate played a role in the Monetary Policy rule of the Riksbank. The results show that it did not influence interest rate setting; exchange rate stabilization probably occurred as a result of increased economic integration and business cycle convergence. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between wages in the public sector, the traded private sector and the closed sector in ten EU Transition Countries. The theoretical literature on wage spillovers suggests that the traded sector should be the leader in wage setting, with non-traded sectors wages adjusting. We show that large heterogeneity across countries is present, and sheltered and public sector wages are often leaders in wage determination. This result is relevant from a policy perspective since wage spillovers, leading to costs growing faster than productivity, may affect the international cost competitiveness of the traded sector.

We model empirically the role of labor market institutions in affecting the response of inflation to labor market and exchange rate shocks in the EU. We adopt a simple Phillips curve framework, treating separately the sectors producing traded and non-traded goods. Our results show that labor market institutions have a significant role in affecting cross-country differences in inflation adjustment for the sheltered (non-trading) sector; the effects in the exposed (trading) sector are also significant but more limited. Increased wage coordination and more expenditure on LM policies (active or total) flatten the Phillips curve in both sectors. More active LM policies also reduce the persistence of inflation. However, but only in the non-trading sector, this effect is more than offset (in 15 countries out of 21) by the presence of stronger wage coordination, which increases the persistence of inflation. Finally, the adjustment of inflation to the real exchange rate, i.e. the exchange rate pass-through, is largely unaffected by institutional variables; only for non-tradables there is a strong negative effect of increased union density.

Over the last 15 years, the evolution of labor costs has been very diverse across EMU countries. Since wages have important second-round effects on prices and competitiveness, and EMU countries do not have the tool of the nominal exchange rate to correct for such imbalances, understanding the determinants of the wage is a matter of increasing concern and debate. We estimate the equilibrium wage equation for the Euro Area over the period 1995-2011 using panel cointegration techniques that allow for cross-section dependence and structural breaks. The results show that the equilibrium wage has a positive relation with productivity and negative relation with unemployment, as expected. We also include institutional variables in our analysis, showing that a more flexible labor market is consistent with long-run wage moderation. Allowing for a regime break, we find that, since 2004, possibly due to increased international competition, wage determination was more strictly related to productivity, and real wage appreciation triggers a drop in the real wage. Furthermore, results point to a wage-moderating role of government intervention and concertation in wage bargaining. ; The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from MINECO project ECO2014-58991-C3-2-R, Generalitat Valenciana Prometeo action 2009/098 and the European Commission (Lifelong Learning Program-Jean Monnet Action references 542457-LLP-1-2013-1-ES-AJM-CL and 542434-LLP-1-2013-1-ES-AJM-CL).

RésuméLes auteurs proposent une équation de salaire d'équilibre pour la zone euro en 1995–2011 à partir de techniques de coïntégration en panel autorisant la dépendance interindividuelle et les ruptures structurelles. Comme escompté, les salaires affichent une corrélation positive avec la productivité et négative avec le chômage. L'introduction de variables institutionnelles montre que la flexibilité du marché du travail peut cohabiter avec la modération salariale. Il apparaît aussi que la concurrence internationale renforce le lien entre salaires et productivité à partir de 2004, et que l'appréciation du taux de change réel contracte les salaires, modérés également par l'intervention étatique et la concertation salariale.

ResumenSe estima aquí la ecuación del salario de equilibrio para la zona del euro en 1995–2011 con técnicas de cointegración de panel que permiten dependencia transversal y rupturas estructurales. Como se esperaba, los salarios presentan una relación positiva con la productividad y negativa con el desempleo. Las variables institucionales incluidas muestran correlación entre flexibilidad y moderación salarial. Además, desde 2004, la mayor competencia internacional reforzó la relación entre salarios y productividad, y la apreciación del tipo de cambio provocó una caída salarial. Los resultados indican también que la intervención gubernamental y la concertación social tienden a moderar los salarios.

AbstractThis article estimates the equilibrium wage equation for the Eurozone over the period 1995–2011 using panel cointegration techniques that allow for cross‐section dependence and structural breaks. As expected, the results show that wages have a positive relationship with productivity and a negative relationship with unemployment. The authors also include institutional variables, showing that more flexible labour markets are consistent with wage moderation. They find that, since 2004, increased international competition has made wage determination more strictly related to productivity, and that real exchange rate appreciation triggers a drop in wages. Their results also indicate that government intervention and wage bargaining concertation have a wage‐moderating role.