Suchergebnisse

Intro; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; List of illustrations; List of contributors; Acknowledgements; 1 Introduction: Orphans of development: the unanticipated rise of illicit coca in the Amazon Andes, 1950-1990; 2 The ghosts of development past: deforestation and coca in western Amazonia; 3 Ideas of modernization and territorial transformation: the case of the Upper Huallaga Valley of Peru; 4 Creating coca frontiers and cocaleros in Chapare: Bolivia, 1940 to 1990; 5 Economic development policies in Colombia (1960s-1990s) and the turn to coca in the Andes Amazon.

The international community has placed great hope and invested considerable time in exploring a global forest convention through the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development's Intergovernmental Forum on Forests and the Intergovernmental Panel on Forests process under the Commission on Sustainable Development. Multinational corporations control almost 40% of the world market in forest products, constituting a major stakeholder in global forest policy. The few cases of direct intervention by multinational corporations at international fora suggest their interests are expressed elsewhere. The authors identify and discuss three types of intervention in the existing forest regime: avoidance, enforcement-driven compliance, and performance-driven compliance. The regime has not achieved performance-driven compliance from multinational corporations because the regime itself is weak and has little support from states internationally and domestically. The authors suggest that multinational corporations have been so effective at avoiding or conditioning compliance that incentives for complying fully with the regime are nil.

What factors led to the surprise defeat of the Colombian peace referendum? Initial analyses suggested a link between support for peace and the experience of violence, but economic conditions and political support for incumbent parties also affect electoral outcomes. We use Bayesian hierarchical models to test links between referendum result and previous violence victimization, economic conditions, and support for Centro Democrático (the main party opposed to the peace agreement). There was less support for peace in the Andean region than in other regions, and departments with lower support had higher unemployment and growth in GDP. Support for the opposition was the dominant covariate of decreasing support for the peace accords, while previous violence victimization increased the proportion of votes for peace. In light of these results, regional variation in baseline support for the agreements – a complex variable governed by partisan engagement but also influenced by structural economic factors – will be critical during implementation of the newly revised accords.

Abstract
This study examines determinants of leftist violence at the municipal level in Colombia from 2000 through 2010. A multilevel GLMM model with a negative binomial distribution is used to take advantage of the information available at the municipal and department level. Surprisingly, inequality was not a significant covariate of violence, and agricultural GDP tended to reduce, instead of increase, guerrilla violence. The main risk factors identified include physical characteristics such as rugged topography and prior violence, but also factors that are candidates for policy action, such as unemployment, incorporation of the poor into public services, repression, and the energy and mining sector. These findings suggest interventions to decrease risks of guerrilla violence beyond merely strengthening the state. While repression tends to escalate violence, targeted policies to provide health benefits to those currently underserved, and securing mining and oil operations can effectively reduce the risk of violence.