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The cross-sectional dynamics of German business cycles: a bird's eye view
In: Discussion paper
In: Series 1, Studies of the Economic Research Centre 23/2005
We establish some stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the level of the firm. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistic covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we analyse the reallocation across individual producers and, in turn, the connection of this reallocation to aggregate business cycles. The empirical results indicate a pronounced heterogeneity of real sale changes across firms. Moreover, the distribution of growth rates of firm's real sales is influenced by business cycle conditions. In particular, the cross-section skewness of real sales changes is strongly counter-cyclical. The results confirm most of the findings for the UK and the US by Higson et al. (2002, 2004) and are, therefore, robust stylised facts of the business cycle.
Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany
In: Discussion paper
In: Series 1, Studies of the Economic Research Centre 11/2004
The "employment intensity" of growth in Europe
In: Kiel working paper no. 1021
The paper elaborates on the employment intensity of growth. Previous evidence regarding this question is surveyed. Empirical results concerning Europe and selected other industrial countries reveal that the cyclical link between unemployment and growth is still stable in the nineties. However, the relation strongly depends on the variable chosen to represent the labor market situation. Test on an asymmetric relation leads to ambitious results. Cross-country and panel evidence suggest that the employment intensity of growth is influenced by the country's wage setting process, the share of the service sector, and labor market flexibility. A clear-cut importance of exchange rate volatility cannot be found. Some conclusions with regard to economic policy are drawn.
Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany
In: Kieler Arbeitspapier 972
Stock market dispersion, sectoral shocks, and the German business cycle
In: Kiel working paper 966
Predicting Germany's recessions with leading indicators: evidence from probit models
In: Kiel working paper 944
Abnehmende Bedeutung der Lagerinvestitionen für den Konjunkturverlauf?
In: Kieler Arbeitspapiere 815
Zur Qualität von Konjunkturprognosen für Westdeutschland 1976 - 1994
In: Kieler Diskussionsbeiträge 247
Lit.
World Affairs Online
Alternative Ansätze zur Schätzung des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotentials
In: Kieler Arbeitspapiere 591
Real-Time Data and Business Cycle Analysis in Germany
In: Bundesbank Series 1 Discussion Paper No. 2004,11
SSRN
Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany
In: International journal of forecasting, Volume 17, Issue 2, p. 181-201
ISSN: 0169-2070
Umweltökonomische Probleme in Gesellschaft und Betrieb: Festschrift für Prof. Dr. Jürgen Blazejczak zum 65. Geburtstag
In: Merseburger Schriften zur Unternehmensführung 14
Inflation and the skewness of the distribution of relative price changes: empirical evidence for Germany
In: Kieler Arbeitspapiere 1059