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International audience Predicting the effect of a changing environment, e.g., caused by climate change, on realized niche dynamics, and consequently, biodiversity is a challenging scientific question that needs to be addressed. One promising approach is to use estimated demographic parameters forpredicting plant abundance and occurrence probabilities. Using longitudinal pinpoint cover data sampled along a hydrological gradient in the Marais poitevin grasslands, France, the effect of the gradient on the demographic probabilities of colonization and survival was estimated. Theestimated probabilities and calculated elasticities of survival and colonization covaried with the observed cover of the different species along the hydrological gradient. For example, the flooding tolerant grass A. stolonifera showed a positive response in both colonization and survival to flooding, and the hydrological gradient is clearly the most likely explanation for the occurrence pattern observed for A. stolonifera. The results suggest that knowledge on the processes of colonization and survival of the individual species along the hydrological gradient is sufficient for at least a qualitative understanding of species occurrences along the gradient. The results support the hypothesis that colonization has a predominant role for determining the ecological success along the hydrological gradient compared to survival. Importantly, the study suggests that it may be possible to predict the realized niche of different species from demographic studies. This is encouraging for the important endeavor of predicting realized niche dynamics.

Ants possess properties that can be used to optimize plant production in agricultural systems. Ant services can be herbivore and pathogen protection and fertilization of their plant partners. They may, however, also harm plants by facilitating ant-attended herbivorous homopterans. To assess whether wood ants can be used in IPM-systems to improve apple production, we transplanted wood ants into a Danish apple plantation and tested whether ants (i) reduced the number of herbivores, (ii) led to higher amounts of leaf nutrients, (iii) controlled apple pathogens, (iv) increased homopteran abundance and (iv) whether these effects affected apple yields. During a two year study, we found that the wood ants significantly reduced the numbers of winter moth larvae, increased magnesium content in apple leaves (but did not affect 10 other nutrients), reduced the number of apples infected with apple brown rot and apple scab (on one apple variety) and increased aphid infections. In the first year, this led to higher apple production on ant trees, whereas ants had no effect on yields in the second year. It was evident that ants provided both services and disservices. If mutualistic ant-homopteran interactions can be disrupted, this would favor plant growth and open for the use of wood ants in sustainable plant management. We discuss how this may be accomplished. Alternatively, ants may be used short term to knock down pest outbreaks (before building up homopteran populations) or used in crops that do not host ant-attended homopterans.