Private Sector Risk and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets
In: The economic journal: the journal of the Royal Economic Society, Band 122, Heft 561, S. 825-847
ISSN: 1468-0297
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In: The economic journal: the journal of the Royal Economic Society, Band 122, Heft 561, S. 825-847
ISSN: 1468-0297
In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Band 48, Heft 2, S. 293-308
In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Band 40, Heft 1, S. 73-96
In: Journal of international economics, Band 42, Heft 1-2, S. 179-193
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: Journal of international economics, Band 34, Heft 1-2, S. 95-114
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: Journal of international economics, Band 21, Heft 3-4, S. 313-326
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Band 18, Heft 1, S. 91-94
In: Journal of international economics, Band 20, Heft 3-4, S. 269-289
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: Journal of international economics, Band 19, Heft 1-2, S. 119-139
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: Economica, Band 49, Heft 195, S. 267
In: Journal of political economy, Band 89, Heft 4, S. 813-818
ISSN: 1537-534X
In: Journal of political economy, Band 89, Heft 4, S. 813-818
ISSN: 0022-3808
World Affairs Online
In: Journal of international economics, Band 138, S. 103632
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: The Canadian journal of economics: the journal of the Canadian Economics Association = Revue canadienne d'économique, Band 55, Heft 2, S. 828-867
ISSN: 1540-5982
AbstractCrises in European countries in 2010 and beyond demonstrated that fiscal crises and sovereign default are not confined to emerging and developing countries. Advanced economies can sustain much larger debt‐to‐GDP ratios than emerging economies. But how much larger? Experience is heterogeneous both across countries and across time. What determines this heterogeneity? We show that a low growth‐adjusted interest rate, a large maximum value for the primary surplus and a strong surplus responsiveness to debt can support higher debt‐to‐GDP ratios without fiscal crisis. We use our estimates to assess fiscal crisis risk for nine high‐debt developed countries following the financial crisis in 2008. Our results imply that Ireland and Portugal lost access to financial markets because of the rise in growth‐adjusted interest rate, whereas Greece would have lost access regardless of the interest rate. Additionally, our results warn of potential future crises for Greece, Italy and Japan even if these countries remain in a low interest rate environment.
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 55, S. 148-175
ISSN: 0165-1889