Suchergebnisse

This dataset forms the foundation of the results generated in the thesis: Morphological Evolution and Sustainability of Deltas in the 21st Century. Modelled elevation change in the Devi and Mahanadi river catchment for the years 2045, 2065, and, where applicable, 2075. Results were produced using the CAESAR-Lisflood model. See chapter 5 of thesis for a full scenario description. The file name refers to the name of the scenario followed by the number of years into the model run: elevdat.430.tst for example refers to elevation change at the year 2045 under scenario 4DWD. The files 'levee break' and 'subdelta' refer to the additional scenarios as described in chapter 7 of the thesis. This work is carried out under the Deltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA) project (IDRC 107642) under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) programme with financial support from the UK Government's Department for international Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of DFID and IDRC or its Boards of Governors.

AbstractThis study proposes a sustainability assessment framework for managing the water resources of the Vietnamese portion of the Srepok River Basin (VSRB). A sustainability hierarchy was developed using five, ten, seven and five sustainability indicators to characterize economic, environmental, social and management dimensions of the basin's water resources. Reliable weights for each of these sustainability components were assigned using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process evaluations of judgements obtained from five highly experienced experts. The sustainability levels were ranked in increasing order of Management > Economic > Environment > Social, allowing a composite sustainability index to be assessed. By taking into account economic, environmental, social and management perspectives, the assessment provides a comprehensive understanding of the sustainability of water resources in the VSRB.

Abstract. In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple
drivers, including direct surface run-off, river discharge, storm surge, and
waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe and
environs caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art
databases with coherent forcing (i.e. ERA5). First, we analyse the
sensitivity of the compound flooding potential to several factors: (1)
sampling method, (2) time window to select the concurrent event of the
conditioned driver, (3) dependence metrics, and (4) wave-driven sea level
definition. We observe higher correlation coefficients using annual maxima
than peaks over threshold. Regarding the other factors, our results show
similar spatial distributions of the compound flooding potential. Second, the
dependence between the pairs of drivers using the Kendall rank correlation
coefficient and the joint occurrence are synthesized for coherent patterns of
compound flooding potential using a clustering technique. This quantitative
multi-driver assessment not only distinguishes where overall compound flooding
potential is the highest, but also discriminates which driver combinations are
more likely to contribute to compound flooding. We identify that hotspots of
compound flooding potential are located along the southern coast of the North
Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea.

International audience ; The development of a coherent and coordinated policy for the management of large socio-agricultural systems, such as the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam, is reliant on aligning the development, delivery, and implementation of policy on national to local scales. Effective decision making is linked to a coherent, broadly-shared vision of the strategic management of socio-agricultural systems. However, when policies are ambiguous, and at worst contradictory, long-term management and planning can consequently suffer. These potential adverse impacts may be compounded if stakeholders have divergent visions of the current and future states of socio-agricultural systems. Herein we used a transferable, scenario-based methodology which uses a standard quadrant matrix in order to explore both anticipated and idealized future states. Our case study was the Mekong delta. The scenario matrix was based upon two key strategic choices (axis) for the delta, derived from analysis of policy documents, literature, stakeholder engagement, and land use models. These are: (i) who will run agriculture in the future, agri-business or the established commune system; and (ii) to what degree sustainability will be incorporated into production. During a workshop meeting, stakeholders identified that agri-business will dominate future agricultural production in the delta but showed a clear concern that sustainability might consequently be undermined despite policy claims of the contrary. As such, our study highlights an important gap between national expectations and regional perspectives. Our results suggest that the new development plans for the Mekong delta (which comprise a new Master Plan and a new 5-year socio-economic development plan), which emphasize agro-business development, should adopt approaches that address concerns of sustainability as well as a more streamlined policy formulation and implementation that accounts for stakeholder concerns at both provincial and national levels.

International audience ; The development of a coherent and coordinated policy for the management of large socio-agricultural systems, such as the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam, is reliant on aligning the development, delivery, and implementation of policy on national to local scales. Effective decision making is linked to a coherent, broadly-shared vision of the strategic management of socio-agricultural systems. However, when policies are ambiguous, and at worst contradictory, long-term management and planning can consequently suffer. These potential adverse impacts may be compounded if stakeholders have divergent visions of the current and future states of socio-agricultural systems. Herein we used a transferable, scenario-based methodology which uses a standard quadrant matrix in order to explore both anticipated and idealized future states. Our case study was the Mekong delta. The scenario matrix was based upon two key strategic choices (axis) for the delta, derived from analysis of policy documents, literature, stakeholder engagement, and land use models. These are: (i) who will run agriculture in the future, agri-business or the established commune system; and (ii) to what degree sustainability will be incorporated into production. During a workshop meeting, stakeholders identified that agri-business will dominate future agricultural production in the delta but showed a clear concern that sustainability might consequently be undermined despite policy claims of the contrary. As such, our study highlights an important gap between national expectations and regional perspectives. Our results suggest that the new development plans for the Mekong delta (which comprise a new Master Plan and a new 5-year socio-economic development plan), which emphasize agro-business development, should adopt approaches that address concerns of sustainability as well as a more streamlined policy formulation and implementation that accounts for stakeholder concerns at both provincial and national levels.

International audience ; The development of a coherent and coordinated policy for the management of large socio-agricultural systems, such as the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam, is reliant on aligning the development, delivery, and implementation of policy on national to local scales. Effective decision making is linked to a coherent, broadly-shared vision of the strategic management of socio-agricultural systems. However, when policies are ambiguous, and at worst contradictory, long-term management and planning can consequently suffer. These potential adverse impacts may be compounded if stakeholders have divergent visions of the current and future states of socio-agricultural systems. Herein we used a transferable, scenario-based methodology which uses a standard quadrant matrix in order to explore both anticipated and idealized future states. Our case study was the Mekong delta. The scenario matrix was based upon two key strategic choices (axis) for the delta, derived from analysis of policy documents, literature, stakeholder engagement, and land use models. These are: (i) who will run agriculture in the future, agri-business or the established commune system; and (ii) to what degree sustainability will be incorporated into production. During a workshop meeting, stakeholders identified that agri-business will dominate future agricultural production in the delta but showed a clear concern that sustainability might consequently be undermined despite policy claims of the contrary. As such, our study highlights an important gap between national expectations and regional perspectives. Our results suggest that the new development plans for the Mekong delta (which comprise a new Master Plan and a new 5-year socio-economic development plan), which emphasize agro-business development, should adopt approaches that address concerns of sustainability as well as a more streamlined policy formulation and implementation that accounts for stakeholder concerns at both provincial and national levels.

International audience ; The development of a coherent and coordinated policy for the management of large socio-agricultural systems, such as the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam, is reliant on aligning the development, delivery, and implementation of policy on national to local scales. Effective decision making is linked to a coherent, broadly-shared vision of the strategic management of socio-agricultural systems. However, when policies are ambiguous, and at worst contradictory, long-term management and planning can consequently suffer. These potential adverse impacts may be compounded if stakeholders have divergent visions of the current and future states of socio-agricultural systems. Herein we used a transferable, scenario-based methodology which uses a standard quadrant matrix in order to explore both anticipated and idealized future states. Our case study was the Mekong delta. The scenario matrix was based upon two key strategic choices (axis) for the delta, derived from analysis of policy documents, literature, stakeholder engagement, and land use models. These are: (i) who will run agriculture in the future, agri-business or the established commune system; and (ii) to what degree sustainability will be incorporated into production. During a workshop meeting, stakeholders identified that agri-business will dominate future agricultural production in the delta but showed a clear concern that sustainability might consequently be undermined despite policy claims of the contrary. As such, our study highlights an important gap between national expectations and regional perspectives. Our results suggest that the new development plans for the Mekong delta (which comprise a new Master Plan and a new 5-year socio-economic development plan), which emphasize agro-business development, should adopt approaches that address concerns of sustainability as well as a more streamlined policy formulation and implementation that accounts for stakeholder concerns at both provincial and national levels.

Abstract. Coastal floods, driven by extreme sea levels, are one of the most dangerous
natural hazards. The people at highest risk are those living in low-lying
coastal areas exposed to tropical-cyclone-forced storm surges. Here we
apply a novel modelling framework to estimate past and/or present and future storm-surge-level and extreme-sea-level probabilities along the coastlines of southern
China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. A regional hydrodynamic
model is configured to simulate 10 000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone
activity, representative of a past/present (1980–2017) and high-emission-scenario future (2015–2050) period. Results show that extreme storm surges, and therefore total water levels, will increase substantially in the coming decades, driven by an increase in the frequency of intense tropical
cyclones. Storm surges along the southern Chinese and northern and southern Vietnamese
coastlines increase by up to 1 m, significantly larger than expected changes in mean sea-level rise over the same period. The length of coastline that is presently exposed to storm surge levels of 2.5 m or greater will more than double by 2050. Sections of Cambodian, Thai, and Malaysian coastlines are projected to experience storm surges (at higher return periods) in the
future, not previously seen, due to a southward shift in tropical cyclone
tracks. Given these findings, coastal flood management and adaptation in
these areas should be reviewed for their resilience against future extreme
sea levels.

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) have a wide range of applications in marine geoscience, and are increasingly being used in the scientific, military, commercial, and policy sectors. Their ability to operate autonomously of a host vessel makes them well suited to exploration of extreme environments, from the world's deepest hydrothermal vents to beneath polar ice sheets. They have revolutionised our ability to image the seafloor, providing higher resolution seafloor mapping data than can be achieved from surface vessels, particularly in deep water. This contribution focuses on the major advances in marine geoscience that have resulted from AUV data. The primary applications are i) submarine volcanism and hydrothermal vent studies, ii) mapping and monitoring of low-temperature fluid escape features and chemosynthetic ecosystems, iii) benthic habitat mapping in shallow- and deep-water environments, and iv) mapping of seafloor morphological features (e.g. bedforms generated beneath ice or sediment-gravity flows). A series of new datasets is presented that highlight the growing versatility of AUVs for marine geoscience studies, including i) multi-frequency acoustic imaging of trawling impacts on deep-water coral mounds, iii) collection of high-resolution seafloor photomosaics at abyssal depths, and iii) velocity measurements of active submarine density flows. Future developments in AUV technology of potential relevance to marine geoscience include new vehicles with enhanced hovering, long endurance, extreme depth, or rapid response capabilities, while development of new sensors will further expand the range of geochemical parameters that can be measured.

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) have a wide range of applications in marine geoscience, and are increasingly being used in the scientific, military, commercial, and policy sectors. Their ability to operate autonomously of a host vessel makes them well suited to exploration of extreme environments, from the World's deepest hydrothermal vents to beneath polar ice sheets. They have revolutionized our ability to image the seafloor, providing higher resolution seafloor mapping data than can be achieved from surface vessels, particularly in deep water. This contribution focuses on the major advances in marine geoscience that have resulted from AUV data. The primary applications are i) submarine volcanism and hydrothermal vent studies, ii) mapping and monitoring of low-temperature fluid escape features and chemosynthetic ecosystems, iii) benthic habitat mapping in shallow- and deep-water environments, and iv) mapping of seafloor morphological features (e.g. bedforms generated beneath ice or sediment-gravity flows). A series of new datasets are presented that highlight the growing versatility of AUVs for marine geoscience studies, including i) multi-frequency acoustic imaging of trawling impacts on deep-water coral mounds, iii) collection of high-resolution seafloor photomosaics at abyssal depths, and iii) velocity measurements of active submarine density flows. Future developments in AUV technology of potential relevance to marine geoscience include new vehicles with enhanced hovering, long endurance, extreme depth, or rapid response capabilities, while development of new sensors will further expand the range of geochemical parameters that can be measured.