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George W. Bush won the November 2004 US elections against the overwhelming sentiment of Europe's citizenry. In theory, this could reinforce the sense of alienation across the Atlantic, pushing Europe increasingly to define itself in opposition to America. In practice, Bush's second term offers the chance of a transatlantic new deal: a more pragmatic relationship, based upon a reassessment of common interests in the post-bipolar world. Such a new deal would require Washington once more to embrace the assumption that European unity is in the American national interest. It would also require the European Union to concentrate on managing security in & around the European space, being ready & able to use military force as necessary. America would take the lead elsewhere, with Europeans offering military & other support where they could achieve a European consensus for action. Adapted from the source document.

In the world after September 11, international attention to the Balkans is declining. Western priorities are shifting, & drawing resources with them. The region's historic window of opportunity, which opened at the end of the 1990s, may be swinging shut. Changes to the transatlantic relationship will have multiple knock-on effects on policies & attitudes toward the region. These are likely to include the accelerated disengagement of the US from the direct management of the postwar Balkans. As developments in Macedonia in 2001 demonstrate, military, economic, & political responsibilities will be overwhelmingly assumed by the EU, its leading members &, in particular, by those West European countries -- such as Italy & Germany -- that are most exposed to Balkan instabilities. Adapted from the source document.